Tuesday Night Big O hand #2 (2 Viewers)

[Goldfish]

Hmmm….bottom set no diamond, but nut low draw. I’d check.


Curious what stakes peak your interest.

I would come to play with you guys just to meet and hang out for the evening. Doesn’t need to be hi stakes.

 

[Goldfish]

This board is pretty wet. Bets won't thin the field and wraps and flushes call and have good equity against you (if they have similar low draws). Someone is going to bet this if its late in the night. Check/call for pot control.

If I flop any set and loc lo draw, it’s all going in as fast as possible. Bottom set is not optimal but pot away IMO.

 

[Mike Wells]

I'm betting this all day... Prob somewhere between half and full pot. Any cards that wing you also fill you up. There are definite scoopertunities. Yeah...there's always ways to lose...but that's Omaha. This is a good spot more often than not. Let's build the pot.

 

[Kain8]

Hero has three to the wheel with a pair preflop. As far as favourable flops go, this is one of them, albeit not as monstrous as it COULD have been. If you wait to make sure you have the nut flush draw / top set along with an uncounterfeitable low draw, you're going to be involved in very few hands.

I'm betting a pretty sizeable amount here. Anywhere from $60 - $75. If we get raised, well, that's where things get juicy.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

If I flop any set and loc lo draw, it’s all going in as fast as possible. Bottom set is not optimal but pot away IMO.

I agree with this assessment. Villain could definitely have TT in his range, but usually when he does he's playing hands like TTJQK or something similar, so even if he does have TT I likely have the best low draw. It is possible he would have A2TTx of course, or A266x, but those are cooler situations similar to running queens into kings or aces in hold 'em.

Anyway since Villain 3-bet and called a 4- bet I figured he had something decent, and he can play his decent hands very aggressively, so I check hoping he'll make a stab at it. I'm hoping to check raise and get as much in as possible here, because if he does have a low and diamond draw I want to charge him as much as possible.

Lo and behold, he obliges, but cutoff flats. Do we stick with our plan?

 

[Frogzilla]

I agree with this assessment. Villain could definitely have TT in his range, but usually when he does he's playing hands like TTJQK or something similar, so even if he does have TT I likely have the best low draw. It is possible he would have A2TTx of course, or A266x, but those are cooler situations similar to running queens into kings or aces in hold 'em.

Anyway since Villain 3-bet and called a 4- bet I figured he had something decent, and he can play his decent hands very aggressively, so I check hoping he'll make a stab at it. I'm hoping to check raise and get as much in as possible here, because if he does have a low and diamond draw I want to charge him as much as possible.

View attachment 879025

Lo and behold, he obliges, but cutoff flats. Do we stick with our plan?

Skip out on the blind like a ….?

 

[Kain8]

Oh that cutoff flat has me, not worried, but not thrilled either. A re-pot almost ensures this goes all-in on the flop now between your two opponents. Really boils down to if you want to play for stacks now. If that was instead another wheel card or a blocker to the board's other two sets, raising has its merits.

But I think now you have to be prudent and just flat.

 

[Highli99]

Life is too short to call a pot sized bet here after a flatter. Repot and embrace the variance. Let it wash over you like a warm summer rain.

 

[MatB]

Will be interesting to crunch the numbers at this point and see who was ahead and by what.

I know luckyNOTgood thought he had massive out

 

[kirchhausen]

 

[kirchhausen]

Skip out on the blind like a ….?

Like a nit

 

[JMC9389]

I agree with this assessment. Villain could definitely have TT in his range, but usually when he does he's playing hands like TTJQK or something similar, so even if he does have TT I likely have the best low draw. It is possible he would have A2TTx of course, or A266x, but those are cooler situations similar to running queens into kings or aces in hold 'em.

Anyway since Villain 3-bet and called a 4- bet I figured he had something decent, and he can play his decent hands very aggressively, so I check hoping he'll make a stab at it. I'm hoping to check raise and get as much in as possible here, because if he does have a low and diamond draw I want to charge him as much as possible.

View attachment 879025

Lo and behold, he obliges, but cutoff flats. Do we stick with our plan?

As played, I repot to get it to heads up play with the initial raiser. The flatter I would have on a diamond draw. I think any set or straight draw repots there.

I wonder how the action would have gone if hero had led out.

 

[kirchhausen]

As played, I repot to get it to heads up play with the initial raiser. The flatter I would have on a diamond draw. I think any set or straight draw repots there.

I wonder how the action would have gone if hero had led out.

There is no straight out there (yet). I assume both players have massive draws. Hopefully they have each others outs. With a set and nut low draw rip it in and make them pay for their draws IMO

 

[Goldfish]

Repot, get it in. Make the flush/st8 draw pay max.

 

[Mike Wells]

Step 1: turn the low
Step 2: river quads
Step 3: profit

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Waiting to see if the good doctor wants to weigh in.

 

[DrStrange]

You already know what I think.

Hero benefits from three way action in many cases, though not so much in this case with bottom set plus the nut low draw. It seems slightly more likely than not hero has the current expected value edge, though that could be really wrong should someone hold a better set. There are possible combo draws that rival the expected value of the set.

I feel the downside risks are higher than the upside potential for profit. I think flatting is best. There is plenty of time to get big money in the pot. If hero has an ev advantage it might be rather small. The turn will clarify things to some extent.

Call, close the action, see the turn and proceed -=- DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Well I don't think villain #2 is likely to be super strong. Maybe he also has A2, and is hoping to draw to half (never a good play) or maybe he has a non nut diamond draw or a straight draw. We decide to pot to charge the maximum to all the draws, and potentially get villain #2 to fold A2 and not much else.

We pot, villain #1 shoves, villain #2 folds. Are we ever folding here? Its $546.25 more into a pot of 1596.75 so we're getting roughly 3-1 here.

 

[upNdown]

We pot, villain #1 shoves, villain #2 folds. Are we ever folding here?

No, but jesus!
(This thread goes a long way to explain why I quit playing Big O online, when the .10/.20 game went away.)

 

[Goldfish]

It had to play out this way. U have to apply max pressure to get the drawing hand out, especially if he has a2. Now the gamble part comes into play. So much fun!

 

[Frogzilla]

With those pot odds I think you have to call but this doesn’t seem like a fist pump spot, I’d much rather have a third low card in case it completes with A or 2. And I think some diamonds to block that runout or redraw vs TT…I dunno what else v could have

But you are getting 3:1 and are sometimes ahead gotta call

 

[MrCatPants]

With those pot odds I think you have to call but this doesn’t seem like a fist pump spot, I’d much rather have a third low card in case it completes with A or 2. And I think some diamonds to block that runout or redraw vs TT…I dunno what else v could have

But you are getting 3:1 and are sometimes ahead gotta call

This level of strength pre and post would indicate something like an a234x hand, maybe with diamonds.

 

[Kain8]

@Goldfish has this playing in a loop in his head every time he sits down at the table:

 

[Goldfish]

@Goldfish has this playing in a loop in his head every time he sits down at the table:

View attachment 879242

Looks about right. Hahaha.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero has to call. But he didn't have to be here.

Villain ranges make all the difference. There are plenty of guys I would fist pump all-in and some others where this is a puke/call.

Perspective: Hero went after a modest pot pressing a reasonable but likely small edge and ended up risking almost a thousand dollars. Maybe villain is weak enough that Hero feels good about the situation. But as an outsider looking in, I do not feel so good.

None-the-less, hero should call and hope for the best. Maybe villain has a big draw for high plus A2 and Hero's set is winning for now.

 

[kirchhausen]

 

[MrCatPants]

I've really been trying not to respond because I know the "jam it in" contingent isn't going to like it...but dang it I can't stay away.

Tl/dr this isn't a strong enough hand on this flop to push hard (not knowing the villains).

I think the issue with the lack of pot control is that there are a ton of turn cards that likely either quarter hero or have hero losing the high and the low. Would have been good to see that first card more cheaply because on a dynamic board like this it can really flip the equity situation.

First off, there's a chance you are running into a2x66 or a2x1010 - unlikely given the preflop action, but we don't know villain.

Beyond that, let's look at the potential turn cards

All high flush cards are bad - so 5 of those (removing the 10d)
Aces and deuces of diamonds are equally bad - 2 more

so - 8 likely bad turn cards

Then, some additional cards that complete straights/flushes with the a2 low that may be quartering hero and he should revert to check call mode
low flush cards 3 through 8 (minus the one already out there) - 5 more
low other cards that complete a wrap for hands that have a2 and other cards - 12 more (some likely accounted for in villains hand)
Other aces and deuces lose at least half the pot - 6 more (but I'm guessing a few of these are accounted for in villain hands)
Even the 10 or 6 pairing might be bad if he's on a top 2 pair hand with a low draw/flush draw

so - 23(+?) kinda bad turn cards

you really don't want to see about 2/3 or what's left in the deck (even if you are still ahead - e.g. a wrap card hits and they don't have a wrap/flush card hits without a flush draw (I would think this is highly unlikely).

Right now (outside the set over set situation - which is possible but not likely.), I ran a number of simulations and you're probably somewhere in the 55% equity range. That said, there's turn cards that flip this completely.

Ad and 2d - you're down to around 10-15%
Other aces and deuces - down to 25-30%
High flush cards - 35%ish
Low diamond that gives you a likely quartered low - 35%ish
Low cards that complete a wrap but give you a likely quartered low - 35%ish

 

[Goldfish]

I think it would be very appropriate to have a live game, inviting only the “jam it in” crowd.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

no pain only emptiness

 

[MatB]

There are no heroes