Tuesday Night Big O hand #2 (3 Viewers)

[Chippy McChiperson]

I've really been trying not to respond because I know the "jam it in" contingent isn't going to like it...but dang it I can't stay away.

Tl/dr this isn't a strong enough hand on this flop to push hard (not knowing the villains).

I think the issue with the lack of pot control is that there are a ton of turn cards that likely either quarter hero or have hero losing the high and the low. Would have been good to see that first card more cheaply because on a dynamic board like this it can really flip the equity situation.

First off, there's a chance you are running into a2x66 or a2x1010 - unlikely given the preflop action, but we don't know villain.

Beyond that, let's look at the potential turn cards

All high flush cards are bad - so 5 of those (removing the 10d)
Aces and deuces of diamonds are equally bad - 2 more

so - 8 likely bad turn cards

Then, some additional cards that complete straights/flushes with the a2 low that may be quartering hero and he should revert to check call mode
low flush cards 3 through 8 (minus the one already out there) - 5 more
low other cards that complete a wrap for hands that have a2 and other cards - 12 more (some likely accounted for in villains hand)
Other aces and deuces lose at least half the pot - 6 more (but I'm guessing a few of these are accounted for in villain hands)
Even the 10 or 6 pairing might be bad if he's on a top 2 pair hand with a low draw/flush draw

so - 23(+?) kinda bad turn cards

you really don't want to see about 2/3 or what's left in the deck (even if you are still ahead - e.g. a wrap card hits and they don't have a wrap/flush card hits without a flush draw (I would think this is highly unlikely).

Right now (outside the set over set situation - which is possible but not likely.), I ran a number of simulations and you're probably somewhere in the 55% equity range. That said, there's turn cards that flip this completely.

Ad and 2d - you're down to around 10-15%
Other aces and deuces - down to 25-30%
High flush cards - 35%ish
Low diamond that gives you a likely quartered low - 35%ish
Low cards that complete a wrap but give you a likely quartered low - 35%ish

A lot of what you say is true, but I think you counted the Ad twice in your scary turn cards counter, plus it's very likely villain has that card in his hand, so is it really that scary? Is villain ripping it in with a23 and a non nut diamond draw? Possibly, but doubtful. Besides even if our equity against his range is only 55%, shouldn't we be getting it in here if we can? Long term that's a pretty hefty profit. 55% equity of a 2k pot is $1100, so over the long haul, we average a $100 win every time we're in this spot. 100 times in a year and I can buy into the main event.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Here are the results for those interested (sorry i disconnected mid hand but this gets tail end):

Spoiler: Results

Dealt to Chippy [9h 2s Ah 5s 5h]
Chippy raises to 437.50
LuckyNOTgood raises to 984.25 (All-in)
HDK folds
Chippy calls 546.75
** Turn ** [9c]
** River ** [Jc]
** Pot Show Down ** [6s Td 5d 9c Jc]
Chippy shows [9h 2s Ah 5s 5h] (Hi: Trips, Fives +JT Lo: None)
LuckyNOTgood shows [3d Ad 4s Th Jd] (Hi: Two Pair, Jacks and Tens +9 Lo: None)
Chippy wins Pot (2143.50) with Trips
There was no low
Rake (0) Pot (2143.50) Players (BigNats: 0.50, Chippy: 1013.25, LuckyNOTgood: 1013.25, HDK: 116.50)

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Pre and post-flop equities...

Spoiler: Equities

 

[MrCatPants]

A lot of what you say is true, but I think you counted the Ad twice in your scary turn cards counter, plus it's very likely villain has that card in his hand, so is it really that scary? Is villain ripping it in with a23 and a non nut diamond draw? Possibly, but doubtful. Besides even if our equity against his range is only 55%, shouldn't we be getting it in here if we can? Long term that's a pretty hefty profit. 55% equity of a 2k pot is $1100, so over the long haul, we average a $100 win every time we're in this spot. 100 times in a year and I can buy into the main event.

It is indeed a game of pushing small edges over the long haul. That said, the turn bricks or moves your way it drastically improves your situation, and vice versa and you can get it in better/avoid getting it in worse. (And I didn't include the unlikely set over set situations). It's more the dynamic nature of this board - turn card is going to flip equities by 20 or 30 percent in either direction.

These villains, just based on these two hands, do not seem to be good players at all. The 4 bet preflop he pulled with this hand (which is decent, but not great) is pretty atrocious. Same with the pot on the flop multi-way into two people with the nfd and bottom end of an oesd, and second low draw.

 

[Goldfish]

It is indeed a game of pushing small edges over the long haul. That said, the turn bricks or moves your way it drastically improves your situation, and vice versa and you can get it in better/avoid getting it in worse. (And I didn't include the unlikely set over set situations). It's more the dynamic nature of this board - turn card is going to flip equities by 20 or 30 percent in either direction.

These villains, just based on these two hands, do not seem to be good players at all. The 4 bet preflop he pulled with this hand (which is decent, but not great) is pretty atrocious. Same with the pot on the flop multi-way into two people with the nfd and bottom end of an oesd, and second low draw.

That’s why he will be invited to the big o all star event that is in the making…..

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

It is indeed a game of pushing small edges over the long haul. That said, the turn bricks or moves your way it drastically improves your situation, and vice versa and you can get it in better/avoid getting it in worse. (And I didn't include the unlikely set over set situations). It's more the dynamic nature of this board - turn card is going to flip equities by 20 or 30 percent in either direction.

These villains, just based on these two hands, do not seem to be good players at all. The 4 bet preflop he pulled with this hand (which is decent, but not great) is pretty atrocious. Same with the pot on the flop multi-way into two people with the nfd and bottom end of an oesd, and second low draw.

I was the 4 bettor pre, he 3 bet and called my 4 bet.

 

[Mike Wells]

I think it would be very appropriate to have a live game, inviting only the “jam it in” crowd.

Brings me!

 

[MrCatPants]

I was the 4 bettor pre, he 3 bet and called my 4 bet.

My mistake. Even the 3! from him isn't great. Not as a egregious as a 4! though.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

My mistake. Even the 3! from him isn't great. Not as a egregious as a 4! though.

Ok, I was wondering if I should have done this one from his perspective. Assuming the preflop action stayed the same, if you were in villain's shoes with 2nd nut low draw, nut flush draw, top pair and open ender (granted the small end) what would be your play? Pot is $87.50 and the preflop aggressor checks to you, with another deep stack behind.

 

[MatB]

Table dynamic is very important too. Hero known to get it all in with solid holdings but also known to shove stacks in on a coin toss

And the game can be very loose short handed deep stack late night

This is the nature of it.

Villain is obviously a trained pro. Who knows that sometimes you just gotta shove and pray

 

[MrCatPants]

Ok, I was wondering if I should have done this one from his perspective. Assuming the preflop action stayed the same, if you were in villain's shoes with 2nd nut low draw, nut flush draw, top pair and open ender (granted the small end) what would be your play? Pot is $87.50 and the preflop aggressor checks to you, with another deep stack behind.

Pot control - way too many draws that have reason to stay around and likely have a better equity situation, or at least similar equity situation. The NFD is definitely a plus, but everything else here makes second best hands - and multi-way this is extra dangerous. In their shoes would definitely want to see a diamond cheap if possible.

If the aggressor was behind/had position instead I could see a 'name your price' betting situation with like a half pot bet. With the nut diamond draw, the preflop aggressor should likely have a bunch of wheel cards with likely only a potential wrap to draw to the high.

If positions were the same and it was only one low card on the board and not a obvious top set card like a K, would pot it in his position.

 

[MrCatPants]

Just wanted to add that the 4 card game here is very different than the 5 card game - that fifth card adds low protection and combo draws a good amount of the time. Personally would be much more aggressive with both holdings (lets say a255 vs. a34x with nfd) in the 4 card game.

 

[Goldfish]

Table dynamic is very important too. Hero known to get it all in with solid holdings but also known to shove stacks in on a coin toss

And the game can be very loose short handed deep stack late night

This is the nature of it.

Villain is obviously a trained pro. Who knows that sometimes you just gotta shove and pray

Shove and pray is a HUGE part of my game.

 

[JMC9389]

@Goldfish licking his chops to get into this game. Sounds juicy.

 

[MatB]

@Goldfish licking his chops to get into this game. Sounds juicy.

It is until you realize you’re the lemon getting squeezed.

 

[JMC9389]

I've been enjoying these hands reviews. I'd never play in this game as I'm too much of a wuss, but I do enjoy the discussion regarding the theory of the game.

 

[MatB]

In fairness to the villain. Equity numbers are always hindsight.
I like villains shove and pray.
He would 100% do the same thing in exactly the same spot again.
Could he have called. Sure. Would he have gotten the degen tingles on flat calling ? I don’t think so.

We live for the tingles

 

[Highli99]

In fairness to the villain. Equity numbers are always hindsight.
I like villains shove and pray.
He would 100% do the same thing in exactly the same spot again.
Could he have called. Sure. Would he have gotten the degen tingles on flat calling ? I don’t think so.

We live for the tingles

Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!!

 

[kirchhausen]

I think a few people have addressed it slightly, but the fact that this group plays on a weekly basis (and almost always the same players as it is a relatively shallow playing pool) definitely put table dynamics into play. Chippy and Villain have a lot of history together, and there are levels upon levels.

If I were Hero in this hand instead of Chippy, Villain would probably (possibly) played his hand very differently. Sometimes you gotta loosen up and make lighter bets to get action later, and Chippy is a master at both.

 

[grebe]

Much later in the evening, we’re 4 handed now.

Villain from the previous hand is on the button and has made a nice comeback, sitting on a stack of $1574.75
Hero in the SB is upstuck, having run into some coolers, failed bluff attempts and missed draws. Sitting on a stack of $1902.50 (up around $400 on the night).
BB is also upstuck, was up about 2300 at his peak, but is sitting on $1013.25, up $813.25.
Cutoff (second villain in the previous hand) has also made a comeback, and is on a stack of $1047.75.
Cutoff limps, button limps, Hero looks down and sees . Action?

FUN! Not sure how late I am, but here goes....

I just call here. OOP with some tasty cards, but we would love to have a different 9. Let's see a flop!

 

[grebe]

Ok the consensus is I should call and evaluate the flop. In hindsight I agree, and think this was a big mistake by me, but I repot to $29. BB and cutoff both call, pot is $87.50.

Flop is . Action is on us...

Holy JEZUSSS you build pots quick!

Good flop, but we have some shit to avoid. I am in check/call mode.

 

[grebe]

If I flop any set and loc lo draw, it’s all going in as fast as possible. Bottom set is not optimal but pot away IMO.

Our low draw is unprotected. We are far from a lock low....if we turn an A or 2, we are hurting.

 

[grebe]

Life is too short to call a pot sized bet here after a flatter. Repot and embrace the variance. Let it wash over you like a warm summer rain.

Why if you don't have to? You can watch that turn card fall and KNOW you are going to get it in good if you hit your nut low. Then you are freerolling to the scoop.

Call. Let him bet out his weaker good hands.

 

[grebe]

Well I don't think villain #2 is likely to be super strong. Maybe he also has A2, and is hoping to draw to half (never a good play) or maybe he has a non nut diamond draw or a straight draw. We decide to pot to charge the maximum to all the draws, and potentially get villain #2 to fold A2 and not much else.


View attachment 879189
We pot, villain #1 shoves, villain #2 folds. Are we ever folding here? Its $546.25 more into a pot of 1596.75 so we're getting roughly 3-1 here.

Good Lahd...

Away we go.

 

[grebe]

I think a few people have addressed it slightly, but the fact that this group plays on a weekly basis (and almost always the same players as it is a relatively shallow playing pool) definitely put table dynamics into play. Chippy and Villain have a lot of history together, and there are levels upon levels.

If I were Hero in this hand instead of Chippy, Villain would probably (possibly) played his hand very differently. Sometimes you gotta loosen up and make lighter bets to get action later, and Chippy is a master at both.

This is fair. I mostly play against strangers, and lately players that are more likely than not to give you action after you hit your nut. For me, playing more conservative pays off more often than not. I have been working on tightening up, and this is definitely the opposite.

Good win, though! That pot is pretty much half my bankroll!