What do you do on the turn in this tournament hand? (1 Viewer)

[pltrgyst]

Only if you powder me later, Daddy.

Four days to come up with that?

You're losing your touch, Bergs!

 

[bergs]

Four days to come up with that?

You're losing your tough, Bergs!

I've been busy. The line of people who want to powder my nuts is longer than you could possibly fathom.

 

[pltrgyst]

....The line of people who want to powder my nuts is longer than you could possibly fathom.

Oh, no -- not at all. Trust me on this one.

And since the talcum powder cancer scare began, they're leaving their switchblades at home.

 

[thorwilliam]

+1 to everyone who wanted to analyze the play at every stage instead of just the last turn bet. Debate-worthy decisions at every point.

I have to disagree with ranging Villain as 99–JJ as of the turn bet. The flop call reeks of super-strength. That's a pretty gorgeous flop for an overpair, and a (likely weak) donk bet from the SB is a great spot to raise with an overpair of any kind. It's almost a mandatory raise, really. Good value against top pair, and you defend your hand against a potential field of draws. So why no raise?

Instead, Villain flats. With three people behind. WTF. Combined with his smallish preflop raise (small pair who wants to set a low price preflop!) and the fact that the board is 2-6-7, a slowplayed set seems way too likely. Think about how strong that call would look if you were behind Villain with, say, 88 or something. Insta-fold.

Anyway, the donk bet wasn't terrible, because it lets you get a better feel for Villain's range at a much lower price than check-raising (and I'm the sort to often donk there with the set too, so I can donk with 78s there ;-) ). Checking the turn was okay if you did it because you properly read Villain as very strong, but not so much if you did it out of reflex just because you bet and got called and you're out of position—huge leak.

Now, you check and Villain bets 12K. That's a kinda shitty play on Villain's part. He should have bet bigger, especially in a tournament with a nice-sized pot on the line. But Villain is a backpack reg. He has to know it's a small bet. He has to know that check-shoving 42K/12K will look enticing to you with lots of hands. More strength indicators.

Conventional Hold'em wisdom is to always be the aggressor, but it seems like that's what he wants you to do. The play I don't think got enough credit here is flatting. If you're getting called here the vast majority of the time, shoving is not great, even if Villain's whole range is overpairs. Little to no fold equity, and you're flipping at best. Ugh.

It's 12K into a 36K pot with a draw that is 2:1 at worst, against a hand that is very probably paying off the 30K on the end if you catch. If the spade or the straight hits, shoveitty-shove-shove 100% of the time. The board is wet enough that Villain may convince himself to call on the basis that you missed a draw and are betting on the scare card, whichever one comes. If you whiff (including hitting trips or two pair), check with the intention of folding and hold on to your 30K (and very occasionally get surprised on a check-back when your hand is good against AKs or something).

Don't get tricked into bluffing a diamond river. You're expecting Villain to call, remember? This is a pure drawing call with no fold equity expected.

I'm really surprised you don't mind the donk bet in a 6-way pot with a weak hand. I think this is a pretty bad choice of a hand to lead. I believe that if we want a leading range here it should be strong value and big draws, not a weak hand that we have to fold to a raise or that will be difficult to play oop for the rest of the hand if we get called.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'm really surprised you don't mind the donk bet in a 6-way pot with a weak hand. I think this is a pretty bad choice of a hand to lead. I believe that if we want a leading range here it should be strong value and big draws, not a weak hand that we have to fold to a raise or that will be difficult to play oop for the rest of the hand if we get called.

What's the alternative, though? Obviously if you check, you're folding to any sequence like bet/raise or perhaps even bet/call behind you, but what if only one players bets? Call or fold? It's a weird spot. On the other hand, betting only costs 6K, and it clarifies the other players' actions a lot more than checking.

The main problem here is that you're OOP with 78s in a tournament in the first place, and this is the type of hand it tends to catch. Yes, you'll have to fold to a raise because all you have is a pair of sevens in a very multi-way pot with an EP TAG preflop raiser. This is part of the reason I wish OP had opened this up to analysis of all streets; even calling preflop was an interesting question.

Hero is playing a 62.5 BB stack on the SB. It's 1,400 to call with 9,075 in the pot. The pot odds are obviously attractive, though we don't know about stack odds beyond Villain, who covers. Based on the action, it is likely that there are at least a couple pairs out, and potentially even an overpair to 78. Is a call okay? Is it necessary to qualify a call with "only continuing with a major draw or two pair or better"? Is it better to stay out of it and give the other players a chance to bust each other out?