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What do you do when you’re ridiculously stuck in a session? (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Windwalker
- Start date
Then you've come to the wrong forum
Then you've come to the wrong forum
Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.
Kain8
Flush
You're seeing angles, which is always good to consider, no matter how unlikely/theoretical they might be in the first place.
The odds of having this type of "operation" being successful is inversely proportional to the size of the poker room. A private game with one table, two dealers? Possible. But even then, to make a cut so precise at the right time is bottlenecking the whole scam into one moment. Could they do it over and over until they get a cut right? Well sure they could. But the mark could bust, change seats from someone else leaving, or even getting up to sit out a few hands for whatever reason.
30 table poker room with a crew of 60 - 90 dealers? Totally unfeasible because of so many variables at play.
Protecting yourself from cheats in a game is always paramount. Game integrity is also of utmost importance for any reputable card room. Speaking of which, how is Stones doing since the Postle debacle? I know I wouldn't set foot in there ever.
horseshoez
4 of a Kind
Even in a small single table game, unlikely. Plenty of variables in that game, just as there would be for multiple tables. Either way, I still applaud Molly for using human dealers and not machines lol That’s one more reason why her game reigns supreme
FDLmold
Royal Flush
Even at my nearest rinky-dink casino (poker room now closed), the dealer had a push button display to record which seats were empty or sitting out. It was built into the table to the dealer’s left, with small LEDs that were dark, glowed solid red, or blinked, depending on each seat status. I believe this was used to inform the desk of how many seats were available and also keep track of someone disappeared for more than the maximum (40 mins iirc). The floor would sometimes announce, “Dealers, update your Bravos.” So presumably this data was also feeding the Bravo app.
OP
OP
We now have a complete topography of the scam in question.
1. The house is rented, area called “the bird streets” in the Los Angeles hills. Owner of the house is a French-Moroccan, who lives in Aix-en-Provence. He’s barely in LA, and has handed over management of the home to a “luxury rental management group” based in Beverly Hills.
2. The rental management company is owned by two Armenian brothers; they have about 20 properties in their portfolio, half of which are rented out short term, and at least three of which have regular poker games run by different individuals.
3. This particular house was rented out by the perpetrators starting Feb 1, 2021. 6 month lease with an option to renew, $85,000 a month. The tech was bought and installed in mid-February. Training of key personnel and testing of the tech happened for most of the rest of the month and the first couple of weeks of March.
4. The first game was held Saturday, March 13. Single mark, brought it from one of the other high roller games through a girl he liked. Real estate guy, known for loose play. Historically known to have major swings weekly in poker — hundreds of thousands of dollars. The kinda guy that raises 20BB pre-flop with 45s out of position.
5. The game continued without issue every Saturday — usually with 1-3 marks at the table, but at a measured pace, with lots of alcohol flowing. Until May 22, which was my Saturday.
6. We have been able to identify 6 of the marks so far.
7. To @TheDuke ‘s question above, if the cut didn’t happen exactly as it needed to, the game continued as usual. They would just try again a few hands later. As long as there was money on the table, everything was in “escrow”. The house players were given unlimited chips to play with, so if they did get a bad beat in the normal course of the game, they just replenished. None of it mattered as long as the marks ended up losing by the end of the night.
P.S. The girl who brought me into the game texted me yesterday to let me know their game has been “cancelled” for tonight, but she’s working another game downtown, if I’m interested. Part of me is intrigued.
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Kain8
Flush
@Windwalker - this: “To @TheDuke ‘s question above, if the cut didn’t happen exactly as it needed to, the game continued as usual. They would just try again a few hands later. As long as there was money on the table, everything was in “escrow”. The house players were given unlimited chips to play with, so if they did get a bad beat in the normal course of the game, they just replenished. None of it mattered as long as the marks ended up losing by the end of the night.”
Makes complete sense, and was my guess as to how it would have worked.
Makes complete sense, and was my guess as to how it would have worked.
OP
OP
Oh, I forgot an important part — the house has 3 poker tables. Saturday was “scam” day. They also ran normal raked games on Monday and Wednesday ($50/$100) on the other 2 tables to build revenue and clientele. Saturday was their “invite only” game — prettiest girls, high end chef, all the trimmings.
TheDuke
Full House
Very interesting. Appreciate that you're updating this thread. It is the makings of a movie - or at least a mini series on Netflix.
My question was actually towards the sidetrack question about shufflers in a casino environment. And the thought that casino operators rig the deck to induce more betting to increase the rate of rake.
I think it's unlikely in a casino environment at the low limits the poster suggested (200NL and 300NL.)
At the stakes you're playing, it's clear there's incentive to steal by these private operators. I'd be suspicious of all unfamiliar games at these stakes.
My question was actually towards the sidetrack question about shufflers in a casino environment. And the thought that casino operators rig the deck to induce more betting to increase the rate of rake.
I think it's unlikely in a casino environment at the low limits the poster suggested (200NL and 300NL.)
At the stakes you're playing, it's clear there's incentive to steal by these private operators. I'd be suspicious of all unfamiliar games at these stakes.
But what did they eat for breakfast this morning?
OP
OP
I don’t know. But I can predict what they might eat for breakfast in a few weeks.But what did they eat for breakfast this morning?
I don’t know. But I can predict what they might eat for breakfast in a few weeks.
megarises
Flush
As a criminal investigator IRL, this thread has really peaked my interest. Well done @Windwalker !
Many years ago I was the Director of Finance at a downtown casino in Vegas when the Shufflemaster was just being introduced. The only discussion we had centered around reducing medical expenses in our dealer staff. At that time, the only way you could get them was via a daily rental agreement. The machines were not for sale. We installed them on all the BJ/table games with the exception of the high limit room.
There was never a conversation about the ability to order the cards - not even in jest. As for speeding up the games, we found that the machines were about the same as our seasoned dealers.
There was never a conversation about the ability to order the cards - not even in jest. As for speeding up the games, we found that the machines were about the same as our seasoned dealers.
RadicusScout
Flush
FDLmold
Royal Flush
Remind me not to piss you off. Within a week you would know more about my life than I do.
This gives some answers to my questions.
So you’ve got a mechanic dealer, plus 5-8 house players, plus management and staff who all need to get paid each game, plus the costs of the technology and the lease, which have to be covered with 4 monthly games.
Anybody who thinks they got “greedy” trying to take more than one buy-in might need to do the math. That game has a fairly big nut to make.
So you’ve got a mechanic dealer, plus 5-8 house players, plus management and staff who all need to get paid each game, plus the costs of the technology and the lease, which have to be covered with 4 monthly games.
Anybody who thinks they got “greedy” trying to take more than one buy-in might need to do the math. That game has a fairly big nut to make.
There is more than enough variance built into the design of the game to ensure action at any stakes, including crazy beats. That said, even if 99.8% of poker rooms understand this, there surely are a few managers and dealers who might feel inclined to juice things up. But I suspect such rarities would be more along the lines of what Postle was accused of doing, likely in collusion with a manager or producer taking a direct cut, rather than the casino itself benefiting.
And can we please stop with all this Batman worship? Not to get personal, but this guy was the mark, he got cleaned out pretty well, and he didn’t even realize it until people here tipped him off to it. Lucky for him he’s got the resources to pay for some good investigators.
Nothing personal, @Windwalker - I’m in no way implying I wouldn’t have been taken just as easily. And I appreciate the transparent account of the scam.
But the superhero talk from the peanut gallery is a bit much.
Nothing personal, @Windwalker - I’m in no way implying I wouldn’t have been taken just as easily. And I appreciate the transparent account of the scam.
But the superhero talk from the peanut gallery is a bit much.
OP
OP
Plus the revenue from the 8 raked monthly games that were run without the cheat. (The Monday / Wed $50/$100 game — rake is 5% to a max of $250).
RichMahogany
Straight Flush
When I’m ridiculously stuck in a session?
Fair point, so just look at the scam game then - how much does the house need to take out of that game, to make it worth the risk? I’d think the two or three guys running the show would want ten grand apiece. And what’s a mechanic dealer’s time worth? $5k a session? Even if the other 5-8 house players were only making a grand a night (which sounds stupid low) I think that game needs to take in more than a buy-in a night for it to be worth it.
All just spitballing though. I’d love to hear other thoughts.
Mongoose
Full House
Yep, the bird streets right above Sunset/Doheny Estates. Meandering streets in the hills, easy to get lost. George Harrison song “Blue Jay away!”
TheDuke
Full House
I still think they got too greedy. The cheating nature of the game was uncovered because of this greed.
Other than the nights of raked poker, I'd assume there were other significant sources of revenue. Perhaps like booze for all the rail birds and socializers.
Also, I wouldn't diminish the amount lost and describing a 400BB stack as 'one' buy. Even if it was described as average opening stacks being at 40K. And losing 800BB in a session is ALOT. Especially when it's 10KNL.
It certainly is a lot to me, but to some people it’s just a buyin, so that’s all relative.
If they had other significant sources of revenue in the room, that just adds to my supposition that they had to take a lot of money out of this game to make it worth it. Because if they could make all that money on rake and booze and whatever on all their legitimate nights, why would they risk their whole operation by running a scam?
I dunno, maybe because of covid eventually clearing up, and maybe because of the illegal nature of their legit operation, maybe they realized this was a finite venture, and did whatever they could to squeeze every penny out of it. It’s tough to try to put yourself inside the head of a criminal.
But I’ll ask the question again - if you’ve got like 6 house players in this game, how much do they need to be paid for the night? Enough to make it worth their time, enough to make it worth their risk, both criminally and physically, and enough for them to keep their mouths shut about the operation?
Which intrigues you Windwalker? The girl or the game?
P.S. You do not need to qualify which part of you is intrigued.
OP
OP
Oh, the girl is the girl. Now just intrigued to see more high stakes games in LA and see if they’re rigged too. Probably a bad idea. But intrigued.
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