What to do with THAT kind of bet? (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

We are playing $0.25/$0.50, $20 max buy-in eight handed. The situation is generic, not from a specific hand. One of the villains has a betting tell which will offer observant folks an excellent idea about what hands he holds.

Cast of characters.

Let's assume everyone has $20 stacks.

Villain will be sitting far enough along the hand to have a number of limpers, so CO - button - SB - BB. Villain is a skilled LAG. Generally profitable. Good at hand reading. A level one thinker (he wonders what the other players have in their hands and acts on his best guess.) Average skills ranging.

The other villains are hyper loose, somewhat passive and 3-bet preflop only with AA/KK and rarely AK.

Hero is Tagish, though limpy preflop and less inclined to bluff given the table is filled with calling stations.

The generic hand.

A bunch of limps bring us to villain who raises to $5.00. That generally means "I have a pocket pair JJ or less" He expects to make ~$3 on the over sized raise or out-play any callers.

I'd like suggestions for two plans:

- one for where Hero has already limped - meaning Hero doesn't have premium hand because there isn't much reason to limp/trap playing a passive table. But hero did have enough of a hand to limp

- two for where Hero hasn't acted yet and might have any hand.

Barring aggressive action from Hero there is one chance in three of future callers.

I am mulling some fancy plays but maybe not the wisest plays. Let's see what people suggest.

DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

If "I have a pocket pair JJ or less" is accurate, and we expect the rest of the table to be reasonable (i.e., to mostly fold unless they're holding big hands), shoving with any two overcards to JJ seems like it could bear fruit—whether we've limped already or we're yet to act.

A reasonable player will often fold his smaller pairs, giving us free money, or call with his larger pairs, setting us up for a flip. We're basically freerolling him on fold equity. We might even be able to add some overcard + undercard hands to our shoving range, maybe down to an overcard with a 9 (but ideally not less than that, as we'd be getting into hands that have no straight potential).

Which pairs we should shove with depends a lot on what we expect Villain's calling range to be. Baseline, if he's calling with all pairs, 77 is the bare minimum, and that's a razor-thin shove.

Stacks are so shallow relative to a $5 raise that there's not much else to do but shove or fold. Calling sets us up for an SPR between 1 and 2, if not 1 or less, so we're going to be pot-committed if we stick around. It's better not to set ourselves up to be pot-committed while inviting another caller. That $5 raise is already a lot to shoot for, so if there's some chance to just take it down, we should go for it.

 

[stocky]

Jam with anything and hope he has JJ because Jacks never win.

 

[DrStrange]

Let's 77 vs overcards is a 53/47 result.

Say Hero puts in $19.50 to win $20 from villain and $2.50 in dead money. $19.50 to win $42.00 - that is worth $0.24 in EV.

Or, Hero puts in $20 to win $43 and gets $0.21 in value.

So jamming with two is "profitable" if we consider winning less than a small blind worth the effort. There is almost no chance villain folds to a preflop jam - I know this from extensive personal experience.

 

[trever]

Can we assume that villain is c-betting basically any flop, or does he check if there are scare cards on the flop?

Will he fold to a x-raise, or does his bet leave him pot committed?

If our LAG shows any willingness to fold, we call the raise and plan to steal with ATC. If he is sticky, shove pre with any two cards >10 and call with the rest. If you feel the need to limp/fold preflop, rethink your limping range.

 

[Jimulacrum]

There is almost no chance villain folds to a preflop jam.

In that case, we should shove preflop only with hands that beat him on average. No point in bothering with unpaired hands anymore.

Technically, 77 is better than his average pair, so that's the cutoff for shoving. We can knock it up to 88 or better if we want to be a little less gambley, or JJ or better if we want to remove all semblance of gambool (e.g., if our bankroll is running very short on cheeseburgers).

Flatting is still out.

 

[DrStrange]

Villain does find postflop folds on boards with overcards, especially two or three overcards.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Villain does find postflop folds on boards with overcards, especially two or three overcards.

I don't think this warrants flatting with our overcard hands—risking $4.50 or $5 over our $0.50 or $0.00 investment for a small opportunity to steal (or to spike a bigger pair and get no action on it, or to run into a set). This is especially true when we consider that Villian is known to be good at reading hands, so we shouldn't expect to outplay him often. Putting money into the pot for a slim chance like that, knowing we're always a dog against his range, would be a mistake.

 

[tsossong18]

If there is no raising amount preflop that will get him to fold that isn't a shove, then there are definitely only two choices like Jimulacrum is saying. I also agree w/ Trever where if you have to fold your limp to his raise then maybe rethink limping range in this game.

Also a lot of his actions depends on how he views you and what your actions mean to him, especially considering being a good level one thinker. If you have an image or past experience where you shoved on his raise like that and showed down the goods, he knows you only shove premiums, etc. has a big play in this. For you to limp then shove to his raise and have him fold would warrant you having a history of being trappy. From what you have said about the style of play in this game you have shown no reason to be trappy. A shove would surely make villain think, and he could probably sniff that out that he's likely good or atleast flipping with that play. In the scenario in which you have yet to act, I agree with the above comments. 77 is cutoff of shoves, you feel better w/ 88 though. W/ $20 stacks and what you have described to me, I personally would gladly shove 77 all day against villain.

 

[DrStrange]

Villain isn't going to have a pair in the right position very often, maybe once or twice a night. I'd be hard pressed to justify changing a 1BB decision based on an uncommon event.

 

[QuiQuog]

Villain is a skilled LAG. Generally profitable. Good at hand reading. A level one thinker (he wonders what the other players have in their hands and acts on his best guess.)

What are these levels of thinking you're mentioning here. Where can I learn more?

 

[trever]

What are these levels of thinking you're mentioning here. Where can I learn more?

Levels
1. What hand do I have?
2. What hand/range do I think villain has?
3. What hand/range does villain think I have?
4. What hand/range does villain think I'm putting him on.

 

[DrStrange]

So here is the plan I am considering, it is polarized and exploitable. However the sample size the villains will see is small.

Hero is jamming only bigger pairs.

Hero is calling with any two Broadway cards and suited aces, planning a high level of aggression on the flop. Hero jams with any pair, Hero also jams any draw. Hero will jam on any flop that plausibly hits Hero's "big card" range but check a flop of rags. Villain's range is sharply defined. If he fails to hit the set, them most flops are going to be a threat. Villain is rarely holding a draw plus his pair, mostly he has to hope his underpair is good in the face of hero's jam.

Hero is limp/folding a hand like 44 or 56s.

Hero is toast if villain has flopped a set, but the small stacks limit the losses and the rages flops that are most likely to give villain a set are the types Hero isn't going to bluff. The bulk of the time villain is facing a ~75% pot all-in holding a weak one pair hand and if he picks Hero off, Hero still wins roughly a quarter of the time.

Note this plan is dependent on the stack sizing. It isn't designed for games with deeper stacks, but it might prove effective playing < 50bb deep.

 

[JamesOwnz]

jacks always win