Against a random casino player, calling a 2/3 pot bet from an EP raiser with
on a
runout is likely very -EV.
But there are a few things which tip the scales towards this being at least a marginal call.
- Villain is a seasoned pro capable of turning anything into a bluff here
- Villain is notorious for playing very wide ranges (although seems to have dialed it back quite a bit in recent years)
- Villain is running cold tonight
- Often, folks (even seasoned pros) start to press the action when running cold
- Line from EP raiser is pretty weak on a Broadway heavy runout (checks flop, declines to check raise, checks A turn)
- Given a monotone flop, natural that EP checks some portion of his value range, but imagine the top of his value range is often cbetting here
- Also his big draws or vulnerable top pairs
- Krish has the , so at least blocks some portion of villain's value range (but, also unblocks most of villain's value range, too)
- Krish has done a good job of pot control to 'earn' the right to call
Update: ran this hand through GTOWizard and aside from Dwan's error of raising
from EP, both players played it fine. According to GTOWizard,
@Windwalker should be calling 41% on this river.