You are the villain with pocket twos (1 Viewer)

*** OK, now the turn ***

Hero calls $10, The Ultimate Calling Station calls.

Three way action. $45 in the pot. Hero holds bottom set. Effective stacks are $135.

Turn is: < :ks: :th: :2c: > :jh:

DrStrange bets $30. Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising, how much?
 
J is a sucky card for us. AQ is definitely in villains range.

Tough for me here. IMO it's either fold or jam.
 
This is part of the reason a raise on the flop would be best. Raised pot, two Broadway cards, we want to be reasonably assured that the bare straight draws at least should have folded.

Now? Either SB or UCS could easily have AQ. If we fill up on the river, we still can't be too sure we're best because Broadway cards tend to produce a lot of two-pair hands. This is not to mention that one-pair hands like AA and AK will also be afraid of this turn, so there goes any loose action we could've gotten. Our best opportunity was on the flop, and we didn't take it.

With the spot we're in, there's no room to make a move that would force someone to tip his hand without committing to the pot, and we can't just fold out of fear. Calling would invite UCS to chase if he has a pair and a queen kicker. Gotta shove.
 
Perceived bad card for us. AQ just got there, as did Q9. A second heart brings backdoor equity for naked hearts floating on the flop or AK / AQ of hearts. Pocket J's would be a terrible suck out.

I hate not re raising the flop. That was a spot we had to raise to narrow the evil Dr's range. And / or get one of the weaker hands to toss.

Now I think we have to FLAT. See what Strangey does with River. Pray for board to pair.

I'm prepared to check back ugly cards or barf fold in some cases.

I'm not too worried about UCS yet.
 
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This is part of the reason a raise on the flop would be best. Raised pot, two Broadway cards, we want to be reasonably assured that the bare straight draws at least should have folded.
I agree that a raise on the flop would have been best if we knew that sb had aq AND we knew that the turn would be a J. I think that the flop is dry enough that it is more runouts where a flat call on the flop might be more profitable than a raise. On the turn we probably have to jam and pray.
 
I agree that a raise on the flop would have been best if we knew that sb had aq AND we knew that the turn would be a J. I think that the flop is dry enough that it is more runouts where a flat call on the flop might be more profitable than a raise. On the turn we probably have to jam and pray.

Agreed. Not the best card for us, but with UCS still in the hand as well, we should get the money in now. And don't forget to hold.
 
*** Uggg ***

Hero calls $30.

The Ultimate Calling Station raises to $65.

DrStrange calls.

Hero owes $35 and will have $70 back after the call. The pot would be $240.

Should Hero fold, call or raise all-in?
 
Barf, fold, save the $35. Could be drawing dead (other than the case deuce)... Almost certainly behind.
 
6+ to 1 direct odds plus an almost certain small implied odds vs a straight, but drawing to a single out if facing any higher set (and drawing dead to J-2 in a bizarre situation.)
 
UCS calls with worse he doesn't raise us with another villain calling. I think barf fold.
 
Jam it in and hope both call, but figure to be behind to UCS that probably turned the straight.

The good Dr could have a hand like top pair and a gut shot that picked up hearts so he may come along because of the odds his hand is getting as well.

Stack is too short to fold for the size of the pot and extra implied odds from both calls.
 
*** The river ***

Hero flats. Three way action to see the river with $240 in the pot. $70 effective stacks.

River is : < :ks: :th: :2c: > :jh: :ah:

DrStrange checks.

Action on Hero. All-in, check/fold or check/call?
 
Spew check/fold

Better of jamming turn, now we are behind a butt tonne of Qx hands also like KQ. Not to mention backdoor flush draws.
 
Just to recap the action:

Hero limps
Hero calls the raise
Hero calls $10
Hero calls $30
Hero flats

We flop a SET in a spot where there's almost no question that we should try to get our stack in, and not once do we raise.

Fast-forward to the river, and we have to seriously consider folding a pot that's over three times our remaining stack. The board has run out three to a flush and four to a straight, and our opponents' ranges could be anything because we never made a single move that would narrow them down.

If we take anything but a loose/passive line here, I think we're robbing ourselves of the joy of consistency.
 
This should be entitled the value of betting for value on the flop with bottom set.
 
Flop: If it were me with my image I'd raise but it's close. If hero never raises in this spot with QJ (or worse) then tipping off the Doc that Kx is no good may be a mistake (not to mention possibly chasing off UCS and others behind.)

Turn: must-jam. I'd bet my roll that Doc does NOT have AQ or JJ, KK and TT are barely possible. UCS could have anything. No reason to assume the J hurt us, more likely it helped us by giving someone 2 pair. Lots of ugly river cards now - anything other than jamming is a mistake. Once UCS min-raises 2 players the jig is up - he has it (how the hell do they do that???) Doc calls as well (I assume he likely dumps a bare king at this point so I'm putting him on KQ, KJ or Khxh.) River is the worst ever and we must C/F.

What odds can I get on DrStrange holding a royal flush??? :D
 
*** Basically screwed, no matter what ***

Hero checks and The Ultimate Calling Station checks as well.

DrStrange tables first holding :td: :ts: {yes it would have been nice to hold :kh: :qh:}
Hero shows bottom set, :2s: :2d:
TUCS shows :qc: :9s: for a turned straight.

So Hero was toast when the deck was cut unless he makes monster over bet preflop.

The hand illuminates how devastating Hero's metal state becomes. He is already in "sad sack" mode and sure that bad luck is coming his way. Which it was this hand, so his passive play saved Hero $70 this time. I could have respected a flop raise or a delayed raise till the turn, taking on a bit more variance to get a shot at a big pot.

I posted this hand after the K8 > AK hand so we could have a clearer idea of how strong a raise from the Ultimate Calling Station might be. If he were even for the night or behind, it is nearly always a made hand (say 95%). As played it is maybe only 90% sure.

As for DrStrange's range. That OOP pot building raise is designed for noise as much as anything else. I'd range him as any pair, two broadway cards, suited connectors down to 54s maybe. And yes it would have monster hands too if the table was filled with LAGtards.

The results are sadly misleading for Hero. He took a really weak/bad line and got to save half his stack. It would be easy to see this result as a victory for Hero's prudent caution.

If it had been me sitting in Hero's seat, my plan would have been limp/call preflop. slow play call the flop. Jam all-in over DrStrange's bet and been drawing to one out on the river.
 
Also, Hero should not ever show that hand. DrStrange was required to table first but Hero could have and should have mucked. Now we know Hero is in "sad sack" mode and much more exploitable.
 
Yeah it started to smell like we were in bad shape OTT. Too much action to think we are good. Pretty bad board run out too. Our weak'ish passive flop play only makes our decisions harder as the hand goes on. We can never be so scared of set over set as not to continue to play our bottom set ... but it makes our hand a lot easier to lay down on the turn when UCS re-pops. If he had called a flop re-pop and now is re - popping turn, I think this is a gross laydown, but alot easier. If we had re-popped the flop and Dr. strange 4 bets us, well then, now we have a lot more information. Makes things a little easier to deal with as the hand goes on.

Also agree. We should never show a hand we don't have to. EVER for any reason. IMO there is never a good reason to give away free information on our play.
 

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