$16 BI 10k guaranteed , what would you do in this spot ? (1 Viewer)

[grebe]

I tried to include a spoiler with what actually happened but I don’t think it worked, he did have AKs. As I mentioned before I would say AA & KK are not in his over jam range at 100% frequency (would expect to see some flats) so his range may be slightly capped. He was also applying ICM pressure most hands, not just opening premiums, so I expected his range to be a bit wider than it should be. All this factored into my call. As you said , not a “punt”, I was still steamed at myself and being too harsh at that point. I would have locked up the win if that flip went my way, but then I might have never even looked at this spot. ICMizer does put QQ as a fold with the pay structure for this specific tourney, but as someone else mentioned , calling with the best hand that you SHOULD fold doesn’t qualify as a “punt”.

The thing that really annoys me is I don’t know when I’ll be able to play an all day tourney like this again, and run good enough to get to the final 20 of a 1200 entry tourney. This is the first time I’ve been in a spot like that in my year and a half of playing online , I mostly play smaller field turbos as I don’t have that much time usually. So that’s sort of why I felt like I “punted” the opportunity

You gotta learn to enjoy the ride as long as you get to ride it. Shoulda woulda couldas will eat you alive. It was a good run and you didnt go out playing bad, learn to believe that in your soul. It should only take you about 20 years to embrace that.

 

[borisasaurus]

Does that icmizer that solved to KK/AA estimate how much equity is needed vs chip leader range (the heads up side pot equity) for +EV? Given dead money and how much of you are ahead of LJ range, normally no ICM you’d only need maybe 45%ish, what does it say is necessary?

I’m looking over the results and I’m not sure where this info would be… are you familiar at all with ICMizer 3 UI?

 

[Trihonda]

Ya, I'm factoring in all the dead money here, V1 with 10bigs is probably literally shoving any decent ace, and I think V2 is probably flatting some of the time w/ AA/KK, but a shove could easily just be a desire to get it in vs V1 and iso with AK, JJ, TT - seems a very legit range for V2. Dunno, it might depend on my table reads of the players and their tendencies, but this isn't an easy or clear fold IMHO. I don't play to min-cash. I play to win. Yes, survival and picking spots is part of the path to victory, so it's good you're evaluating your play, but don't beat yourself up too badly over the call.

 

[FordPickup92]

Does that icmizer that solved to KK/AA estimate how much equity is needed vs chip leader range (the heads up side pot equity) for +EV? Given dead money and how much of you are ahead of LJ range, normally no ICM you’d only need maybe 45%ish, what does it say is necessary?

I have no idea what any of this means.

 

[grebe]

I have no idea what any of this means.

Its using math to solve for how to play in tournaments when the money jumps are very significant. Like, do you just fold your way up the money in a tournament instead of trying to play "good poker" because the risk is too great if you go out in 5th rather than fold your way to 3rd.

So, is it worth it to play QQ here, a hand most people wouldn't fold, or is it more profitable to fold this and almost all other hands in order to shore up a higher finishing place.

EDIT: ICM is a way to convert tournament stacks in to cash equivalent.

 

[Senzrock]

It's a super interesting spot that IMO is less about correct/incorrect lines (solver says it's a fold, though we are technically ahead), and more about MTT philosophy more broadly.

Me, I'm calling off with QQ here but if we were down to say 7 or 6 players on a WSOPME table, I would probably fold. We are 18 players still, which, with 40 bb's means it's literally anyone's game. We are not folding to serious money, in fact we are one medium sized pot away from being one of the short stacks. As soon as I read the HH I put CL on AK but like others have said, I think had could have AQ, JJ, TT maybe even 99s or 8s in some instances because he knows how few hands can really call his reshove. This is where player reads are so important, especially in a long MTT where you hopefully have been paying attention to villain's playing style. If we are to give villain a wider range, I can't help but think QQ is a correct call off with 18 left. It's at least extremely close, not a punt.

Thanks for sharing.

 

[davislane]

It's a super interesting spot that IMO is less about correct/incorrect lines (solver says it's a fold, though we are technically ahead), and more about MTT philosophy more broadly.

Me, I'm calling off with QQ here but if we were down to say 7 or 6 players on a WSOPME table, I would probably fold. We are 18 players still, which, with 40 bb's means it's literally anyone's game. We are not folding to serious money, in fact we are one medium sized pot away from being one of the short stacks. As soon as I read the HH I put CL on AK but like others have said, I think had could have AQ, JJ, TT maybe even 99s or 8s in some instances because he knows how few hands can really call his reshove. This is where player reads are so important, especially in a long MTT where you hopefully have been paying attention to villain's playing style. If we are to give villain a wider range, I can't help but think QQ is a correct call off with 18 left. It's at least extremely close, not a punt.

Thanks for sharing.

these sort of posts tend to come up because poker is a results orientated game so when we win we tend to think that we are a poker genius but when we lose we tend to assume we done something "wrong".