2/5 Hand at Bellagio (1 Viewer)

[upNdown]

Not folding top two pairs ever on a draw heavy board where we block a set of Queens and a set of Jacks

Yup. No disrespect to the charts n grids and ranges and whatnot, but in this hand with these stacks, at that point, the above comment is really all that’s relevant, IMO

 

[Highli99]

We need more analysis on these types of performances, how people respond to them and what others tend to have when they do it.

I haven’t seen anything other than mike caros book of tells.

Look up Zach Ellwood

 

[kirchhausen]

Good discussion. I thought about my sizing a lot here - ended up doing the below. This is where it gets interesting. Your responses should reflect the range of hands you feel are being represented here.

I think most of the possible thoughts are out there now, so will continue...

SB- younger guy, when stacked twice on strong pre-flop holdings that he can't lay down on bad flops - $400
BB - younger guy, talks like a "poker dork", $700
UTG + 1 - OMC type, barely know he's there - $400
UTG + 2 - New local pro, been sun-running most of the session, aggressive opener and 3-bettor - $2000
MP (HERO) - Tight image, hasn't shown down more than 3 hands, but did lose all three of those hero calls - $450
CO - Drunk maniac who has been very active and somehow winning - $900
HJ - Tight-ish ABC player. seems to think he's getting bluffed more often than he is - $300
BTN - OMC type, barely know he's there - $600

UTG + 1 folds
UTG + 2 opens to $20
Hero looks down at .

Hero thinks for a bit as he does not like this spot in this position and then CALLS.
CO CALLS
Folds to BB, who CALLS

Pot is $82.

Flop comes

BB checks
UTG + 2 downbets to $25
Hero RAISES to $95
CO INSTAFOLDS
BB tanks for half a minute and CALLS.
UTG + 2 tanks for over a minute and then moves ALL IN (keep in mind, I'm the short stack - this is a much bigger move against BB.) My read on his body language is 'well, I'm not folding, so let's get it in here' - not the kind of body language you'd expect from the QQ/JJ under the bed monsters.

Action on hero.

And regardless of action, what are you putting the players on? If we call is BB calling?

I'm putting BB on some sort of draw, maybe combo draw. Ax spades, maybe KTss, 9Tss, maybe AJss.
I think UTG2 has either an over pair AA, KK, possibly with a s, or maybe AQdd

 

[Senzrock]

Look up Zach Ellwood

Much better/updated work building on Caro's outdated book for sure.

 

[grebe]

Just a note that our top 2 pair is nearly 59% here, it’s far from a 50/50 flip. Our opponent is around 41%. It may seem like semantics but it’s a fairly large difference. Because of this, and because of the dead money you noted, we very much got the outcome that we wanted over the long run.

Say top two pair against a gutter and a flush draw is 50/50 here. It's actually quite a bit better than that, but let's just say it's an even coin flip.

Yes, I agree, in past tense and in present.

 

[Senzrock]

Yes, I agree, in past tense and in present.

Ah, my mistake.

 

[grebe]

Ah, my mistake.

it's cool. I was just saying coin flip to make the math super easy to get the point of fold equity and dead money across as a long run +ev move. Probably a confusing thing to do when the hand equities were actually different.