99 on the flop 3-ways (1 Viewer)

[OfficerLovejoy]

Hm, so no monster for the BB. I was way off apparently.

My stab at their holdings:
BB showed A8o
BTN shows 55... Or a combo draw which would be the cooler play.

 

[perfectjawnz]

Well, you all see where this is going. I just didn’t see myself getting to showdown cheaply and with BTN left to act I sigh folded. Really regret the big c-bet.

But the analysis isn’t over. For extra credit you can try and put the villains on some hands. After I folded BTN backraised, making it somewhere around 350-400 (can’t remember exactly). BB shows his cards and folds pretty quickly. BTN drags the pot and shows as well.

I'd guess BB on AXhh (or maybe even AhXx) or some straight draw, and BTN on top/middle set

Hm, so no monster for the BB. I was way off apparently.

My stab at their holdings:
BB showed A8o
BTN shows 55... Or a combo draw which would be the cooler play.

BTN on 76dd would be sick

 

[grebe]

Well, you all see where this is going. I just didn’t see myself getting to showdown cheaply and with BTN left to act I sigh folded. Really regret the big c-bet.

But the analysis isn’t over. For extra credit you can try and put the villains on some hands. After I folded BTN backraised, making it somewhere around 350-400 (can’t remember exactly). BB shows his cards and folds pretty quickly. BTN drags the pot and shows as well.

BB has A8 most likely...top pair seems right.

BTN has either a set or a flush draw.

 

[Senzrock]

Well, you all see where this is going. I just didn’t see myself getting to showdown cheaply and with BTN left to act I sigh folded. Really regret the big c-bet.

But the analysis isn’t over. For extra credit you can try and put the villains on some hands. After I folded BTN backraised, making it somewhere around 350-400 (can’t remember exactly). BB shows his cards and folds pretty quickly. BTN drags the pot and shows as well.

I am not surprised that BTN is stronger here than the BB. He could have had a huge draw or slow playing a set. I put BB on a hand like A8 as I mentioned before and I am going to say that BTN has the 76dd hand instead of middle set.

Edit: I had not seen the previous few comments. 2nd Edit: I still think it's a bad fold and you can just gamble it up with the BTN in a hand like this. Not knowing what BTN has, he might fold anything other than a set if you had just 3bet the BB min raise.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Seems like you will get folds from anything we are beating and calls from hands that beat us. What would you do with AK-AT here? Would you check back or make the same bet? If you would check with your over cards but bet big with your over pairs, you are going to be pretty easy to figure out. A large bet with all your hands on a board that obviously does not favor the preflop raiser is going to put you in some hard spots.

Sometimes those types of bets are appropriate. If HERO holds the best hand now, then it needs to be protected. Yeah it kind of falls under the 'you'll only be called by x' category but that's the situation HERO finds himself in. This is a favorable flop for pocket nines. A bet that ends the hand now - especially against two opponents and reasonably deep - is best.

What would I do with overcards in this situation? Probably check. If the button bets, you can re-assess after seeing what the BB does but I'm going to be taking a c/f line a lot here.

That might be problematic from a table image standpoint, but it can also be used to induce some bluffs/bets in future hands.

 

[grebe]

Similar hand to this in the video I happened to be watching at lunch....a little different in that it is head's up with JJ, but just to show you what people can show up with here. Hand starts at 8:24. WARNING: this guy is VERY DRY, but I like the way he thinks thru hands, and he plays stakes that interest me.

 

[Eriks]

Similar hand to this in the video I happened to be watching at lunch....a little different in that it is head's up with JJ, but just to show you what people can show up with here. Hand starts at 8:24. WARNING: this guy is VERY DRY, but I like the way he thinks thru hands, and he plays stakes that interest me.

Will have to watch this later

 

[Eriks]

So here’s what they had:

BB showed (wtf?)
BTN showed

Welcome to my game. I did feel like a little nit folding my nines, which is the reason for the thread, but it seemed like the least bad of my options. Turned out to be correct in this instance but I suppose he could have a lot of draws in his range as well

 

[Senzrock]

So here’s what they had:

BB showed (wtf?)
BTN showed

Welcome to my game. I did feel like a little nit folding my nines, which is the reason for the thread, but it seemed like the least bad of my options. Turned out to be correct in this instance but I suppose he could have a lot of draws in his range as well

Terrible play by the button here, allowing the blind(s) to come in and not getting more value pre. I would re-label him as a pretty new/fishy player. On the button this is a 3bet all day.

 

[Senzrock]

Tons of history with hero. Fights for pots, likes to float. Bluffs too much imo. Isn’t very aggressive pre with 3- and 4-bets. Have seen him just flat opens with premium hands.

This is an interesting, but in some ways potentially contradictory description of the player (not saying it's wrong at all, just that these facts conflict a bit). If he (1) fights for pots, (2) likes to float, (3) bluffs too much.... but... also somehow doesn't even want to 3bet with the 3rd best hand in poker... it's very odd to say the least. Those are three very aggressive traits and then one VERY passive one. You don't get that very often (I've never seen that player profile myself I don't think).

 

[Eriks]

This is an interesting, but in some ways potentially contradictory description of the player (not saying it's wrong at all, just that these facts conflict a bit). If he (1) (2) fights for pots, (3) likes to float, (4) bluffs too much.... but... also somehow doesn't even want to 3bet with the 3rd best hand in poker... it's very odd to say the least.

I have played with this player many many times but this flatting with big pairs is a pretty new tendency of his. Have seen him do it a couple of times before this one.

I agree that it’s weird though. I do call him down very light in certain spots so he should really use that to his advantage by playing his strong hands faster

 

[OfficerLovejoy]

I have played with this player many many times but this flatting with big pairs is a pretty new tendency of his. Have seen him do it a couple of times before this one.

I agree that it’s weird though. I do call him down very light in certain spots so he should really use that to his advantage by playing his strong hands faster

Yup, told you BB could easily show up with AA here. These rec players tend to play big pairs very "sneaky" and treat them like the stone nuts on the flop. It happened to be the BTN this time though.
That's why I try to wait for a better spot than a 99 overpair and let them spew it off into my 2 pair+.

 

[Senzrock]

Yup, told you BB could easily show up with AA here. These rec players tend to play big pairs very "sneaky" and treat them like the stone nuts on the flop. It happened to be the BTN this time though.
That's why I try to wait for a better spot than a 99 overpair and let them spew it off into my 2 pair+.

Although the BTN (should be in theory) is much more likely to flat with the over pair here vs the BB who has to play out of position in a multi-way pot. Generally even fish know to raise big pairs in those spots. Also, while it's true that obviously bad players will make bad plays, this shouldn't impact our decision making process *too much*. By that I mean, we should still not be deviating from what we perceive to be the "best play" too often here, just because players do show up with the most random holdings. So yes, we would have lost more $ with 99 vs QQ (and that's OK), but we would have also won more money vs the A4 right. I still don't like the fold on the flop, I think it's always a call or small 3bet and then... we can have BTN end the hand anyway afterwards... or... you know know, we 3bet this flop and the BTN might fold QQ some of the time, I've seen it happen. Point is, yes they are random, but even if we get into some -EV spots like these, we will be making money off these bad players in the long run. Let's not augment our own games too much to try and "catch" villains randomness. We will be wrong plenty of times.

 

[OfficerLovejoy]

Although the BTN (should be in theory) is much more likely to flat with the over pair here vs the BB who has to play out of position in a multi-way pot. Generally even fish know to raise big pairs in those spots. Also, while it's true that obviously bad players will make bad plays, this shouldn't impact our decision making process *too much*. By that I mean, we should still not be deviating from what we perceive to be the "best play" too often here, just because players do show up with the most random holdings. So yes, we would have lost more $ with 99 vs QQ (and that's OK), but we would have also won more money vs the A4 right. I still don't like the fold on the flop, I think it's always a call or small 3bet and then... we can have BTN end the hand anyway afterwards... or... you know know, we 3bet this flop and the BTN might fold QQ some of the time, I've seen it happen.

Well this is just turning our overpair into a pure bluff.
A small 3bet prices in flush and oes-draws in and a big raise gets only called by better and folds out worse. There are way better hands (draws) to do that with.

Point is, yes they are random, but even if we get into some -EV spots like these, we will be making money off these bad players in the long run. Let's not augment our own games too much to try and "catch" villains randomness. We will be wrong plenty of times.

Heads up, I'm right with you here.
I also think we shouldn't play bad to counter even worse plays.

But I still(!) think this hand is 3 ways oop either very much dominated or all even decently played draws have lots of equity against us. We will face 2 tough decisions on turn and river in a bloated pot.

You might be right and I'm just too much of a fish to realize but I really don't see how either calling or reraising the flop will net us a healthy profit in the long run here.

 

[Senzrock]

Well this is just turning our overpair into a pure bluff.

Agreed, I prefer a flat call here on the flop but my read was the we are actually ahead of the bb (which we were), so it's one of the few spots where I don't mind a smaller raise. If BTN had like a J high flush, he might fold that to the min-raise and our 3bet.

 

[Senzrock]

You might be right and I'm just too much of a fish to realize but I really don't see how either calling or reraising the flop will net us a healthy profit in the long run here.

We were pretty unlucky here that a super aggressive player happened to pick up a bigger pair AND slow played it AND we got an 8 high flop here. Those are all factors that shouldn't happen very often in a given hand. The BTN should also have allllll kinds of hands that we are ahead of here. Just think of the straight + flush combos that BTN should have instead of one of the few times it's a sneaky overpair. If we fold this flop, we are giving away a lot of equity long term imo.

 

[Eriks]

Granted, this is because I know this specific player well, but I highly doubt he would fold his queens if I make a small 3-bet. I would also not rule out that he could shove with a draw over a small 3-bet so a 3-bet/fold line would potentially be terrible