A2s in the small blind (1 Viewer)

[Mr Tree]

I saw it as spades. Plus it's a boring hand if you brick the flop

With a little imagination it doesn't HAVE to be a boring hand if you brick the flop [emoji6]

 

[Forest@Farmington]

I looked multiple times and thought I was just missing it. Glad you have the spades. Now check and let the next guy bet to build you a nice little pot when you hit the flush

 

[DrStrange]

I could make a case for three plans - bet out, check/raise or check/call. Hero needs to some of each in a game like this so the villains don't get a read from betting tells.

DrStrange

 

[Trihonda]

I'm in the camp to bet in flow. Meaning, I let the CO c-bet here. I think you posted that she c-bets a lot.

Then I raise. Raise amount depends on c-bet amount.

 

[Ben]

I want to bet mainly because I need to know what BB is doing before I have to act again. If he puts a chip in the pot I'll assume he's getting it in and proceed accordingly. If he folds then CO or button (but probably not both) could likely be blown off the hand later unimproved. What I really don't want to do is C/R and be snapped by BB with something silly like 78o and lose the other two in the process. And the check/call/get there line really sucks OOP, especially when we can represent a much stronger range than the PFR (we can have the nuts; she can't.)

 

[DrStrange]

*** and now for a hard spot **

Hero elects a check/raise strategy but things don't that way.

Hero checks, BB checks.

CO bets $5, button raises to $20. {$15 raise into a $16 pot.}

Action on Hero. Some data first.

BB has $23 left behind and owes at least $20 to stay in the pot. BB can not reopen the betting.
CO has $38 left and owes at least $15 to stay in the pot. Button's raise is small enough that a jam by CO will reopen the betting for Button.
Button covers everyone combined - he has $378 left.
Hero owes $20 to call, leaving him with $98.

If everyone were all in, the main pot would be $100 - - the first side pot {CO, Button, Hero} would be $60 - - Hero and Button would have a $150 heads up second side pot.

So what do we recommend for Hero? Fold, call or raise? If raising how much?

DrStrange

 

[atomiktoaster]

Call >> raise>>>>fold. You're still 50/50 looking to quadruple. EV drops after the small stacks run out, so no need to look too strong to the big stack.

 

[Trihonda]

Call >> raise>>>>fold. You're still 50/50 looking to quadruple. EV drops after the small stacks run out, so no need to look too strong to the big stack.

Ya, this for me too.

 

[detroitdad]

Fold or shove. Not calling

 

[atomiktoaster]

Fold or shove. Not calling

A fold is -EV, even with RIO, right?

 

[DrStrange]

Well that is a key question isn't it?

Hero has roughly an 18% percent chance to make a flush on the turn. It costs $20 to try and the pot would be $66 {just gussing} Hero needs to win $180 to break even on the proposition. Hero needs to pull in another $120 from implied odds - money co and button will pay on turn and river bets {assuming Button isn't drawing to a full house or misses it}

Hero can't count on the river card as part of the proposition because there is another round of betting where Hero might be forced to pay a significant bet to try to river a flush.

And we also have to wonder how Hero will do if an ace shows up. Perhaps that makes hero a winner, but other times it will prove costly {I.e. someone has a set, straight or two pair} We want to assume the aces are extra outs but they are tainted.

This point of the hand was/is the hard spot for Hero. We will need to figure out which option has the most equity.

DrStrange

PS let me say that the risk of a sizable heads-up pot weighs on Hero's mind. I wouldn't give Hero as much as 50% equity vs button's range.

 

[thorwilliam]

Well that is a key question isn't it?

Hero has roughly an 18% percent chance to make a flush on the turn. It costs $20 to try and the pot would be $66 {just gussing} Hero needs to win $180 to break even on the proposition. Hero needs to pull in another $120 from implied odds - money co and button will pay on turn and river bets {assuming Button isn't drawing to a full house or misses it}

Hero can't count on the river card as part of the proposition because there is another round of betting where Hero might be forced to pay a significant bet to try to river a flush.

And we also have to wonder how Hero will do if an ace shows up. Perhaps that makes hero a winner, but other times it will prove costly {I.e. someone has a set, straight or two pair} We want to assume the aces are extra outs but they are tainted.

This point of the hand was/is the hard spot for Hero. We will need to figure out which option has the most equity.

DrStrange

PS let me say that the risk of a sizable heads-up pot weighs on Hero's mind. I wouldn't give Hero as much as 50% equity vs button's range.

Why do you need to win $180 to break even?

 

[DrStrange]

Opps 6 x $20 = $120 not $180.

Thanks for the catch - I'm doing double duty watching the turkey with an oven gone whacko and bungled the math. It is proving difficult to get the birds done with just the broiler, but I am getting close.

DrStrange

 

[Nbk]

I fold

 

[atomiktoaster]

Ok, with actual math, things are clearer. Stack sizes may have you pinched here. The thing is, if it's a fold now (when you arguably hit the flop as well as you could hope, and the follow on bets are exactly what you'd expect) it was probably a fold pre-flop.

When do I get to point when I feel a little better about my poker skills after each thread, rather than a little worse?

 

[Nbk]

Ok, with actual math, things are clearer. Stack sizes may have you pinched here. The thing is, if it's a fold now (when you arguably hit the flop as well as you could hope, and the follow on bets are exactly what you'd expect) it was probably a fold pre-flop.

When do I get to point when I feel a little better about my poker skills after each thread, rather than a little worse?

I disagree.... For me poker is not just a question of just -EV or +EV. It's also a question of putting money in the good spot.

In this spot i think either you want to see the turn and the river, or you want to see nothing more. If yu want to see the turn and the river then it is all in to have a fold equity, but by raising a bet the button just told me that he has a hand and that he doesn't want me to draw. Then i lose a lot fold equity. For me there will be other spots where my money would be better invested. Then for me it's a fold. (i repeat i wanted to check raise someone to have fold equity and perhaps a free card)

For the moment hero is not pot commited.

Someone said the money you do'nt lose has the same value as the money you win.

 

[Mr Tree]

I disagree.... For me poker is not just a question of just -EV or +EV. It's also a question of putting money in the good spot.

In this spot i think either you want to see the turn and the river, or you want to see nothing more. If yu want to see the turn and the river then it is all in to have a fold equity, but by raising a bet the button just told me that he has a hand and that he doesn't want me to draw. Then i lose a lot fold equity. For me there will be other spots where my money would be better invested. Then for me it's a fold. (i repeat i wanted to check raise someone to have fold equity and perhaps a free card)

For the moment hero is not pot commited.

Someone said the money you do'nt lose has the same value as the money you win.

^^^^This.

You can't count on investing in this hand to see one more card and then brick the turn. You need to see both cards to maximize your flush potential and the reraise indicates you may have someone willing to play for stacks. I think this is a spot you let go.

 

[atomiktoaster]

I think I agree with the fold at this point, too. I'm just wondering if the reraise was really the turning point. Maybe hero should avoid drawing hands pf in this stack situation?

 

[Mr Tree]

I think I agree with the fold at this point, too. I'm just wondering if the reraise was really the turning point. Maybe hero should avoid drawing hands pf in this stack situation?

I don't think I would fault a preflop fold but it was a minimal investment.

IE if it was a mistake it was a small one...as long as you don't overplay the hand post flop.

 

[Mr Tree]

BTW what are COs likely hands here? We know she is sticky but that would normally indicate a caller here not a reraise. Maybe an overpair?A10? A real hand like a set and she is betting out because of the flush draw?

 

[Nbk]

^^^^This.

what does this mean?

 

[Mr Tree]

what does this mean?

It means I agree with you completely

 

[Nbk]

oh i see they were up signs... i'm a nob in forum language

 

[DrStrange]

I think Hero has a fine hand preflop, as long as stacks are deep enough. Suited aces have the potential to stack weaker flushes {and everyone in the hand might hold those types of cards} It could be that CO's stack isn't deep enough - she is the most likely player to get over-involved with a big pair type hand. I do not feel bad about investing 2.5BB trying to catch a flop.

The wild variation in stack sizes at the table are going to be potential opportunities / problems. {BB with 25BB, CO with 90BB, Hero with 240BB and Button with 800BB} The way this hand is playing out, the problems seem larger than the opportunities, but perhaps that isn't accurate. Hero has a lot of equity with his nut draw. This hand would be a lot easier if the bulk of the money was going in with three players rather than the second side pot being the biggest of all.

We are all feasting off of the player in the big blind. He is spewing chips - but only to gals/guys in the hand. That colors the ranges I give CO and Button.

I am still pondering . . . not only this hand but a growing mountain of food. We expect 25 people for dinner - just glad it is at someone else's house this year.

DrStrange

 

[detroitdad]

25 people..........wow........

I think were up to 8. My middle daughter and BF probably won't stay long.

Fold>Jam, but only marginally imo.

 

[DrStrange]

*** The bitter end ***

Hero ponders a while.

If Hero reraises, CO is folding much of her range {she has lot of air like AQ or 44 - but mostly hands beating hero's weak ace}. I don't know what she would do with a medium overpair - JJ should look rather puny after a pot size raise followed by a check/reraise but it is one of her weaknesses. I think she stacks off with AA maybe less.

If hero flats, CO still might pitch her air but likely would play any hand better than top pair / good kicker.

Either way, Hero likely needs to hit his hand to win the pot.

Button's range is mostly made up of hands with 50%+ equity vs hero's hand - sometimes barely more but sometimes hero is facing a set (25% equity) or a straight (35% equity). If Hero jams, villain is calling with sets and the nuts - I can't say what Button does with a hand like T9 (which has 55% equity vs hero's hand). I guess than Button folds hands like that given the poor pot odds (villain would owe $98 to try and win a $98+$98+$51 pot so he needs 40% equity) Button will have a few flush draws but those aren't the bulk of his range.

So Hero's jam is going to get a lot of folds, but when he gets called, Hero's equity is going to be less than 40%.

I think jam > fold >> call but jam and fold are close.

What actually happened:

Hero sigh/folds. CO calls. Two way action, $46 in the pot, Effective stacks are $23.

Button blind bets $30 - effectively putting Co all-in on the turn.

Turn is: < >

Co snap folds. We never see Button's hand. I am having trouble putting CO on a hand - maybe jacks?

DrStrange