Awkward bubble spot with A2s (1 Viewer)

[MrBo]

Playing a monthly league tournament recently - $40 buy-in with a $5 bounty. We're down to final 6 with 5 getting paid and 6th getting $30 bubble boy money. Hero has a slight chip lead, but at this point average stack is only around 9 BB's and Hero has about 13-14, with 4 other players around average +/- 2-3 BB's, and one short stack (V1) on about 1.5 BB's.

There's one key hand from the final table that could provide some context on V2:

2 levels earlier, 9-handed, blinds at 1k/2k, no ante. LAG cutoff opens to 4k, button short-stack shoves for 5k total, folds to V2 who is in the BB and makes it 10k total. Cutoff folds and it ends up being V2's vs. short-stack's . Ten-high holds up and V2 talks/jokes about how he (1) just wanted to isolate the short-stack and (2) wanted the bounty.


Back to the hand in question. Blinds are at 2k/4k, 6-handed. V1 lost an all-in to be crippled about 3 hands earlier, but has folded last 2 hands with 1.5 BB's and seems to be waiting for a decent hand to get it in with despite his usual LAGish tendencies.

V1 starts the hand by shoving for 6.5k from UTG+1.
Folds to Hero in the SB, sitting on about 55k, with .
V2 is in the BB, sitting on about 32.5k.

What's our best play here?

 

[JoseRijo]

Are you asking us what to do with the nuts here? 'Cause A2s is the nuts.

 

[MrBo]

Are you asking us what to do with the nuts here? 'Cause A2s is the nuts.

I can't say that my first thought was to just flat and trap, but sure that's one option. Or fold / raise / jam?

 

[BGinGA]

 

[upNdown]

On the bubble, you'd probably be pretty safe with a cheap reraise I'd probably make it 20K.

 

[Ronoh]

On the bubble, you'd probably be pretty safe with a cheap reraise I'd probably make it 20K.

This is effectively a jam as hero isn't folding for 12k more.

I can't tell you how far outside of the jam camp I am... hero is in the small and it's barely the price of one big to call and unless the BB has a big hand (or is a moron) he's going to call behind and check it down. At the current price we should have no interest in jamming to isolate, two shots at bursting the bubble is by far the better play.

if you aren't after isolation... I mean, do you want the BB to call? What's he calling with? Any ace has you smashed, any pair has you looking for the same 3 outer and you're only a slight favorite against anything else that even might call (KQ, etc).

Call looking two shots at busting the bubble and fold to a BB jam.

 

[JoseRijo]

if jamming with ANY two cards here is a mistake, it isn't a large one.

 

[DrStrange]

It seems to me that people aren't in agreement on Hero's goal. Does Hero want to maximize his chance to win this pot? Or does Hero want to maximize the chance of eliminating the bubble player?

This being a tournament, I would have thought the latter. But I am not a good tournament player, so maybe that isn't the best goal to target.

I thought Ronoh has offered the best argument. Is there some math to help me see why getting a few more chips is worth the risk of keeping the weakest player in the event?

DrStrange

 

[BGinGA]

Call looking <for> two shots at busting the bubble and fold to a BB jam.

This normally solid advice for hero's action in the small blind can also be extended to the Villain yet to act in the big blind: "call looking for two shots at busting the bubble and fold to a SB jam"

I think it's safe to say that if SB flat calls the short-stack's all-in, the BB should also just call in a two-way attempt to eliminate the bubble position.... even though this approach could potentially triple-up the short-stack in a position where essentially everybody is short-stacked. That facet of the situation is not insignificant.

However, that's not likely to be what actually happens if the SB just calls. The BB has already demonstrated an inclination to both isolate and target bounties with sub-par hands, and there is little reason to believe that he won't do it again here - especially with SB's call amount added to the prize. A call here by the SB will result in him facing an all-in shove by the BB, not a pleasant prospect with A2 suited.... and having lost 4500 valuable chips if folding to BB's raise. And if SB plans to call the likely all-in from BB, he should just shove himself and get the fold equity.

Normally -- with bigger stacks and sane players -- I'd advocate for smooth-calling and trying to bust out the short stack. But in the outlined scenario, jamming seems pretty clear to me, even if the BB wasn't a maniac. Stack sizes are too small to not push hard with a suited ace.

 

[xxmurrxx]

Shove. Likely to be ahead of the initial jam and V2.
Given the hand example you posted above I wouldn't be surprised if V2 plays back at you if you limped... Might as well take the aggressive route.

 

[onerand]

This is tricky if you and V2 are 20bb deep or more. But he only has 32.5k left, 8bb, and pot is already 12.5k. Jam.

 

[Ronoh]

I think it's safe to say that if SB flat calls the short-stack's all-in, the BB should also just call in a two-way attempt to eliminate the bubble position.... even though this approach could potentially triple-up the short-stack in a position where essentially everybody is short-stacked. That facet of the situation is not insignificant.

It is insignificant. SS shoves for 6500 while BB is already in for 4000. If you get the BB to fold SS has a shot at a 17k pot. BB coming along bumps it to 19.5k. Difference is half of a big blind.

I still think you guys are all off in assuming BB is going to shove rather than call and check it down if hero limps. I'm well known as being a bounty hunter... his isolation raise with 9 left is a completely different situation than where he finds himself now. There are times you target the bounties and times you don't. This isn't one of them.

 

[upNdown]

It is insignificant. SS shoves for 6500 while BB is already in for 4000. If you get the BB to fold SS has a shot at a 17k pot. BB coming along bumps it to 19.5k. Difference is half of a big blind.

I still think you guys are all off in assuming BB is going to shove rather than call and check it down if hero limps. I'm well known as being a bounty hunter... his isolation raise with 9 left is a completely different situation than where he finds himself now. There are times you target the bounties and times you don't. This isn't one of them.

I'm sold. Call.

 

[courage]

The real question is why do 6 players all let themselves have an avg of only 9bb at this stage? In this situation I'm assuming the BB will play passively since that has been the case for the most part. If we shove we're probably only getting called by better or a flip that has KQ, KJ, etc. I'll flat and fold to BB shove, checking in the dark pre. If he shoves with worse than A2s, make a note he's not too bright in these spots for future.

 

[BGinGA]

make a note he's not too bright in these spots for future.

Previously raising to isolate with 87 off-suit pretty much convinced me of this already.

 

[BGinGA]

If we shove we're probably only getting called by better or a flip

Agree with this, but I also think BB is folding a bunch of hands that have us beat or are flipping. Easy for him to envision calling for his tournament life and busting out as the bubble.....so folding a lot of aces and broadway card holdings, probably even small pairs. SB does have fold equity here.

On the other hand, if SB just calls (looking weak), those same hands now take on new life with an all-in move of his own, complete with fold equity. Which is exactly what is being suggested would happen with a call/fold-to-shove approach. I still maintain jamming is the best approach in this particular scenario, resulting in the greatest tournament equity increase for the SB player..

 

[Adam Crowley]

Im guessing that a shove shows profit here. Probably more then folding due to the bounty. I could go either way and it would depend on what range you think BB will call with. Generally speaking an over shove on the bubble should fold out more hands from the BB then if you open shoved and I think that an open shove here is probably the correct play.

If the BB is calling a wider range then he should be I would fold and let them fight it out. It's worth noting the BB should have better equity vs V1 then you with A2s

 

[Ronoh]

On the other hand, if SB just calls (looking weak), those same hands now take on new life with an all-in move of his own, complete with fold equity. Which is exactly what is being suggested would happen with a call/fold-to-shove approach. I still maintain jamming is the best approach in this particular scenario, resulting in the greatest tournament equity increase for the SB player..

As a fellow bounty hunter I stick to my guns... he's not shoving without a big hand.

Personally I'm not sure if you guys would be jamming any two cards here or if you're way overvaluing the ace (because folding to a SS shove for the price of one BB is something I simply can't comprehend).

Forgetting the BB for a moment A2 is a terrible hand here any way you slice it, you'd be ridiculously better off with KQ. Being that shorty has shown at least a bit of patience leading up to this hand you can be absolutely certain that there are exactly zero hands you are way ahead of... he either has a pair, a better ace or two live cards. In other words you are either a small favorite or a big underdog, there are no other options.

 

[MrBo]

Thanks for all the feedback, folks. I agree with the thinking that just flatting the short-stack shove would open the door for BB (V2) to jam himself and push me out, and he's shown the propensity to do this. V2 and I have only played together 2-3 times, so not much info to go by. For the most part he seems pretty ABC, but a few times he's thrown me for a loop. He's the same guy that limp-snapped a blind-vs-blind shove of mine for 12BB's or so with QJo. So on one hand, I feel like I can apply pressure by jamming here, fold out hands with decent equity against , like mid suited connectors, isolate the short-stack and get the dead BB in the pot as well with decent (definitely not great) equity against short-stack's range. On the other hand, BB's calling range very well may include more than a few hands that I'm ahead of, and with so few BB's in play why not gamble when we have a possible marginal edge + fold equity. Overall I guess my thinking was:

Jam > Call > Fold... and I don't think raise-folding is really a mathematically reasonable option, though I haven't dug into that idea too much.

Regarding the bubble strategy, I'm really going for the win here, or at least a top 3 finish. Especially with stacks so short I feel like applying pressure and picking up blinds / dead money in pots is critical, and the difference between bubble ($30 back for a $40 buy-in) and 5th place ($60), or even 4th are minimal. These short-stack scenarios come about quite often at these games, primarily because (1) about half the field tends to tighten up like crazy once at the final table, even open limp-folding when in obvious shove-or-fold spots, and (2) the levels decrease from 20 minutes to 15 minutes at 1k/2k, so we go even quicker from 15-25ish BB stacks to < 10 average. It sucks when it boils down to bingo poker towards the end, but it's also the reason I look to build a big stack and maybe be a bit more aggressive or gamble more than I normally would in some mid-late stage situations.

 

[Adam Crowley]

Is there some math to help me see why getting a few more chips is worth the risk of keeping the weakest player in the event?

You can run some ICM models you would have to run be a few range approximations. I would select a best case, worse case and then a few reads based models.

You then have the bounty to consider which changes the EV of each decision dramatically. The math on the individual scenario is easy but I have no idea how you can join them together.