Interesting Hand $25/$50/$100 NLHE (2 Viewers)

[ngmcs8203]

The only draws that complete here are flush draws. EP and MP gain a little bit of equity when the club hits. It's not much, but enough to make this a check with your marginal made hand.

In this config you are going to be check raised most of the time by a set on the flop (at least by competent players), especially when they need protection from the draws or over pairs that can catch up. While normally a straight forward UTG raiser might have fewer flushes than you in this spot, this guy might have a random flush here if he is wide in his preflop ranges.

If you bet, this is another 33% pot bet, but I think you have to check behind with 2/3 of your range here. Your hand has been downgraded to a marginal made hand and unless you have a set or a draw with nut blockers that gained some equity that you can use to protect your made hands (Ac3x or maybe AcJx), this has to be a check.

 

[JMC9389]

Check back.

Two callers after that flop is bad news. That flop should almost never hit both villains.

 

[Hot Nuts]

Check. The last 3 times I've flopped top 2 pairs, I lost with a Qx. One was with a straddle that really hurt. Flushes, straights and trips all got there. lol .Now I'm just superstitious.

 

[Windwalker]

Continuing…

Played a super interesting hand at the Bike last week, and have been thinking about it a bunch.

Hero on the BTN, 2 hours into a $25/$50/$100 (blind, not straddle) game. 4 pros, 4 rec players. Average stack is around $40k. Hero has $34k, bought in for $20k.

Villain 1 is UTG, very loose, very aggressive rec player, can really have anything at any time. Known to make absurd hero calls. Was down $40k in the first 5 minutes, but has aggressively built his stack back up, up about $5k now. Stack at $45k.

V2 is a grinder pro, but very old school. Plays the way the old books say he should play. Wins when the cards are in his favor. Has been on a losing streak the last 5-6 sessions. Probably down $150k in the last 6 sessions. Sitting at just under $30k. He is in middle position.

Hero looks down at

V1 raises to $300.
V2 calls.

Everyone else folds. SB and BB are TAG pros. Both winning players.

—-
We’re not interested in giving the pros in the blinds any pot odds incentive to call here, so we decide to raise in position.

Hero raises to $1600.

SB, and both the big blinds fold.

V1 insta-calls.

V2 pauses for a bit, calls.

There is now $4975 in the pot.

Flop is

V1 checks, V2 checks.

This is a decent flop for us, but a board that provides draw-heavy value for a lot of our opponents ranges.

We decide to bet. Hero bets $1800.

V1 calls. V2 also calls.

Pot is now $10,375.

Turn is

V1 checks.
V2 checks.

This could be all kinds of trouble. Hero checks.

River is

V1 checks.
V2 tanks. And announces, “All in”.

Hero?

 

[krafticus]

Continuing…

Played a super interesting hand at the Bike last week, and have been thinking about it a bunch.

Hero on the BTN, 2 hours into a $25/$50/$100 (blind, not straddle) game. 4 pros, 4 rec players. Average stack is around $40k. Hero has $34k, bought in for $20k.

Villain 1 is UTG, very loose, very aggressive rec player, can really have anything at any time. Known to make absurd hero calls. Was down $40k in the first 5 minutes, but has aggressively built his stack back up, up about $5k now. Stack at $45k.

V2 is a grinder pro, but very old school. Plays the way the old books say he should play. Wins when the cards are in his favor. Has been on a losing streak the last 5-6 sessions. Probably down $150k in the last 6 sessions. Sitting at just under $30k. He is in middle position.

Hero looks down at

V1 raises to $300.
V2 calls.

Everyone else folds. SB and BB are TAG pros. Both winning players.

—-
We’re not interested in giving the pros in the blinds any pot odds incentive to call here, so we decide to raise in position.

Hero raises to $1600.

SB, and both the big blinds fold.

V1 insta-calls.

V2 pauses for a bit, calls.

There is now $4975 in the pot.

Flop is

V1 checks, V2 checks.

This is a decent flop for us, but a board that provides draw-heavy value for a lot of our opponents ranges.

We decide to bet. Hero bets $1800.

V1 calls. V2 also calls.

Pot is now $10,375.

Turn is

V1 checks.
V2 checks.

This could be all kinds of trouble. Hero checks.

River is

V1 checks.
V2 tanks. And announces, “All in”.

Hero?

Reshove? You have the 2nd nuts, losing only to QQ.

 

[JMC9389]

Snap call. If they have QQ that's just too bad. I like @Highli99 's thought of flatting for exactly his reason.

 

[theshepherd]

Quads is not possible here Joe.

Agree, have to call this. Very well could be facing ace high flush and only lose to QQ.

 

[Legend5555]

V2 is a pro, so he almost never has QQ here as he would have made a 3 bet pre to begin with. Also unlikely UTG has QQ as facing a squeeze with a player in the middle, they would likely 4 bet QQ OOP. So we can pretty safely assume we have the nuts. I didn't think jamming over the top accomplishes anything. Just call and see if UTG wants to talk himself into a call with a bad flush or trips.

 

[Highli99]

Call and try to pull in V1!

 

[Goldfish]

I don’t know much about holdem but it looks like…..

 

[JMC9389]

Quads is not possible here Joe.

Agree, have to call this. Very well could be facing ace high flush and only lose to QQ.

D'oh, haven't drank my morning coffee. Edited.

 

[krafticus]

I feel like we got lucky on this one, and was up against a set of 2's or 4's. The turn brought the scary flush out, which could have slowed V2 down a bit. I feel like V1 could have a weak flush, or a middling pair, like 9's or 8's and was hoping to see what comes, and how hero continues. I just feel like a call looks too strong and will get V1 to fold. Of course, a call could look like we hit a flush with AKcc, or even just a top pair hand like AQ.

As mentioned, I don't feel like QQ is in their range, but if V2 played it that way, it's such a strange line. I'm never folding though.

 

[bergs]

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE (can’t possibly lose to QQ DOH!)

 

[theshepherd]

Pretty sure we are losing to QQ since this hand is for discussion...

Doesnt mean we played it wrong...

 

[Highli99]

The problem with most hand discussions is they turn out to be humble brags or bad beat stories. OP usually shares hands that are not one of those, but the expectation is understandable.

 

[ngmcs8203]

Pretty sure we are losing to QQ since this hand is for discussion...

Doesnt mean we played it wrong...

Huh? Think about how the hand was played. V2 should never have QQ here. Maybe V1 does but not v2 since he would have raised PF.

My guess is that v2 hit his flush and is looking for thin value, not expecting OP to show up with a FH often considering how it played out. He’d have to put OP exactly on QT and is likely thinking OP or v1 would call with any ten.

I’m calling hoping v1 calls with a ten or non-nut flush.

 

[Ben8257]

Pretty sure we are losing to QQ since this hand is for discussion...

Doesnt mean we played it wrong...

Why would QQ simply call Pre and check the flop? You're right, hero didn't play it wrong if that is the case.... but someone did! I can see QQ checking the turn when the Flush hits, but other than out of position and knowing Krish is likely to bet... so disguise our over pair? Doesn't make sense not to bet pre or the flop, so if you are holding the perfect nuts here... "congratulations, NICE HAND SIR!!! Rebuy and another Bourbon please!"

Those paying attention Hero only has $5k behind... the Shove here really makes no sense other than showing 2 monster hands and likely will get V1 to fold... we are never folding here, CALL!

Hit up ole @Goldfish and say Sizzlas on me Bruh! Lmao

 

[NotRealNameNoSir]

Resident nit: I'd call because duh, but QQ playing this way is straight out of Super System.

V2 is described as a by-the-book oldschool pro that's losing big, so we can't expect him to play perfectly anyways. Super System explains a line where you call with a monster in middle position when you know aggressive players behind you will raise for you, disguising your monster hand, and the rest of the line makes sense for QQ. When I heard old school and by the book, I'm not thinking The Course or Modern Poker Theory, I'm thinking old timey grinders, could be way off.

I don't know if he has it, but its not a "never" as described. Even the solver graph posted has QQ 50/50 between calling and raising once EP raises; I don't use solvers much so please tell me if I've read that wrong. I'm still losing money once I get here because I can see nut flush being played badly the same way, but oh well. I definitely put too much stock into reads that are described in these types of threads and want to learn more the solver side.

 

[Hot Nuts]

Agree with those that mentioned V2 might have

 

[Rakrul]

We only have ~$4k over V2's shove though so it doesn't really matter if we call or shove.
Old school V2's range isn't very wide here. He could be trapping on flop with QQ and planning to x/r a non-club turn. However, noone has showed any strength here so it's a bit of a hail Mary if he overshoves with QQ. Old schoolers also don't usually go ~2.5x pot from what I've seen, and very rarely with a bluff.

Our minimum defense frequency here is around 25% I think, so if you want to fold 2nd nuts here we're talking soul reads and even then it's probably wrong. His range is basically nuts or Qc/Tc* and the odd Ac for bluffs, given that he can overshove bluff. V2 could overshove lower boats due to lack of strength from V1 and Hero but I don't see which (other) boats he could have here.

V1 is the least likely to have QQ here so we're not really worried about him. Again, if either of them has QQ then merry xmas to him and make an entry in the bad beat journal but this super-hidden, under-repped 2nd nuts can't ever fold here.

*-Edit: Tc is on the board so e.g. TxAc, TxYc but the latter is not likely at all.

 

[JWC]

Though it’d be funny if someday people made a thread like this and then finally replied “nope, I folded pre, okthxbye”

I think I did that with 2-7o once

 

[chippitydoodah]

ALL IN!!!

 

[Dbxela]

The question is just whether flatting gets more overcalls then re-raising.

I'd expect to see 22 and 44 the most here from V2

 

[ngmcs8203]

The question is just whether flatting gets more overcalls then re-raising.

I'd expect to see 22 and 44 the most here from V2

If V2 is playing a set of 2s or 4s this way, he needs to turn in his professional poker player license in for disposable.

 

[JWC]

Though it’d be funny if someday people made a thread like this and then finally replied “nope, I folded pre, okthxbye”

https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/pahwm-nl-hold-em.90025/

 

[Mandos]

The question is just whether flatting gets more overcalls then re-raising.

Yeah this is the biggest open question to me. We're not going anywhere with the second nuts, we only have about 4k left behind and the bet was about 25k if my math is right. I lean towards calling being more likely to bring V1 along and shoving being scarier but I'd like to hear arguments to the contrary if I'm wrong. (Then again, given the description of V1 it might not make much of a difference either way what we do but calling still feels less likely to chase him away).

 

[Rakrul]

Is it really relevant though? V1 either has to call ~67k if we call or ~71k if we re-shove. Both basically says we either got nuts or a medium hand depending on the metagame but it's not going to change V1's mind regardless.

We only have ~$4k over V2's shove though so it doesn't really matter if we call or shove.
Old school V2's range isn't very wide here. He could be trapping on flop with QQ and planning to x/r a non-club turn. However, noone has showed any strength here so it's a bit of a hail Mary if he overshoves with QQ. Old schoolers also don't usually go ~2.5x pot from what I've seen, and very rarely with a bluff.

Our minimum defense frequency here is around 25% I think, so if you want to fold 2nd nuts here we're talking soul reads and even then it's probably wrong. His range is basically nuts or Qc/Tc* and the odd Ac for bluffs, given that he can overshove bluff. V2 could overshove lower boats due to lack of strength from V1 and Hero but I don't see which (other) boats he could have here.

V1 is the least likely to have QQ here so we're not really worried about him. Again, if either of them has QQ then merry xmas to him and make an entry in the bad beat journal but this super-hidden, under-repped 2nd nuts can't ever fold here.

*-Edit: Tc is on the board so e.g. TxAc, TxYc but the latter is not likely at all.

Thinking back to my analysis, I made an error. We got second nuts since we block quads but V2 doesn't know that which means he's shoving a non-nut hand. It doesn't change much though. I don't think top set would check 3 clubs on turn as he basically gives any club a chance to outdraw so Hero doesn't have a lot of quads in his range on the river meaning QQ are the effective nuts. Again, it's a hail Mary from him but on the upside if everyone folds it would seem like a bluff and he shows he can overbet.

 

[Josh Kifer]

Continuing…

Played a super interesting hand at the Bike last week, and have been thinking about it a bunch.

Hero on the BTN, 2 hours into a $25/$50/$100 (blind, not straddle) game. 4 pros, 4 rec players. Average stack is around $40k. Hero has $34k, bought in for $20k.

Villain 1 is UTG, very loose, very aggressive rec player, can really have anything at any time. Known to make absurd hero calls. Was down $40k in the first 5 minutes, but has aggressively built his stack back up, up about $5k now. Stack at $45k.

V2 is a grinder pro, but very old school. Plays the way the old books say he should play. Wins when the cards are in his favor. Has been on a losing streak the last 5-6 sessions. Probably down $150k in the last 6 sessions. Sitting at just under $30k. He is in middle position.

Hero looks down at

V1 raises to $300.
V2 calls.

Everyone else folds. SB and BB are TAG pros. Both winning players.

—-
We’re not interested in giving the pros in the blinds any pot odds incentive to call here, so we decide to raise in position.

Hero raises to $1600.

SB, and both the big blinds fold.

V1 insta-calls.

V2 pauses for a bit, calls.

There is now $4975 in the pot.

Flop is

V1 checks, V2 checks.

This is a decent flop for us, but a board that provides draw-heavy value for a lot of our opponents ranges.

We decide to bet. Hero bets $1800.

V1 calls. V2 also calls.

Pot is now $10,375.

Turn is

V1 checks.
V2 checks.

This could be all kinds of trouble. Hero checks.

River is

V1 checks.
V2 tanks. And announces, “All in”.

Hero?

See. NITS. Weeeeeee

 

[Windwalker]

Conclusion…

Played a super interesting hand at the Bike last week, and have been thinking about it a bunch.

Hero on the BTN, 2 hours into a $25/$50/$100 (blind, not straddle) game. 4 pros, 4 rec players. Average stack is around $40k. Hero has $34k, bought in for $20k.

Villain 1 is UTG, very loose, very aggressive rec player, can really have anything at any time. Known to make absurd hero calls. Was down $40k in the first 5 minutes, but has aggressively built his stack back up, up about $5k now. Stack at $45k.

V2 is a grinder pro, but very old school. Plays the way the old books say he should play. Wins when the cards are in his favor. Has been on a losing streak the last 5-6 sessions. Probably down $150k in the last 6 sessions. Sitting at just under $30k. He is in middle position.

Hero looks down at

V1 raises to $300.
V2 calls.

Everyone else folds. SB and BB are TAG pros. Both winning players.

—-
We’re not interested in giving the pros in the blinds any pot odds incentive to call here, so we decide to raise in position.

Hero raises to $1600.

SB, and both the big blinds fold.

V1 insta-calls.

V2 pauses for a bit, calls.

There is now $4975 in the pot.

Flop is

V1 checks, V2 checks.

This is a decent flop for us, but a board that provides draw-heavy value for a lot of our opponents ranges.

We decide to bet. Hero bets $1800.

V1 calls. V2 also calls.

Pot is now $10,375.

Turn is

V1 checks.
V2 checks.

This could be all kinds of trouble. Hero checks.

River is

V1 checks.
V2 tanks. And announces, “All in”.

Hero has second nuts, and is pretty sure V2 doesn’t have QQ as played. He *could* have the same hand, but we think his range as played is more likely a smaller set that turned into a boat, or he could be bluffing with the Ac.

Hopefully, V1 has a made hand… a flush, small boat..but his loose call range even includes A10s here.

Hero shoves.

V1 tanks for at least 10 minutes. Turns over his hand while he’s thinking about it. Shows 78c. Eventually calls, saying “donation”.

V2 mucks his hand. He later says he had Ac10h. Which kinda makes sense.

We scoop the pot.

 

[WedgeRock]

Hero is never folding. The only question is, what is more likely to get V1 to commit his stack, flatting or re-shoving?

V1 has hero and V2 covered. V1 checked the river. If he is calling V1's bet, he's calling hero's re-shove; he's not folding because we're making it $5k more. And the converse, if he's folding to hero's re-shove, he probably was folding to V2's shove. Bottom line, I don't think a hero flat vs a hero call is going to change what V1 does.