If cheating were plausible - and I don't consider it plausible, although I'm still open to the possibility - then, while I wouldn't expect this to be a good spot to cheat, I wouldn't rule it out just because of that... because cheaters are very often lousy at cheating.
That said, one of the main reasons I discount the possibility of cheating is not that this is a bad spot to cheat, but that this seems to be the only spot that they cheated.
I could believe they cheated in lots of spots. I could maaaaaaybe believe they cheated just one time, in a perfect spot. But to only cheat one time, here? It strains credibility.
If you'll recall, Krish was once cheated in a home game, and it was pretty obvious (upon reflection after the fact, not necessarily in the heat of the moment during play) because they rigged the deck against him in hand after hand after hand. If Bobbi and her accomplices are cheaters, then they're simultaneously very good (because they never showed any signs of it except this one time) and very bad (because they picked a terrible spot to be blatant about it the one time they did).
I agree. This is the weakest part of the "they cheated" arguments.
Or, in order to make the cheating argument more credible, would help if facts (or a plausible theory) came out that this instance was not, in fact, the only time she/they cheated, just the most obvious time.
My late father, a physician, liked to tell this joke:
"What's the definition of a dilemma? A Christian Scientist with appendicitis."
That's how I feel about this hand/story!
In general, I'm anti-conspiracy theories, as life experiences have shown me countless times to trust Occam's Razor (prefer simpler explanations to complicated) and Hanlon's Razor (prefer stupidity to malice to explain behavior). It's not that they
never happen, but it's no coincidence that the ones we find out about (e.g., Watergate, Black Sox, etc.) are the ones we found about -- it's hard for that many folks to keep a secret. I've also found that folks who propound conspiracy theories tend to be lazy thinkers averse to personal responsibility and/or poster children for cognitive biases.
And on a personal level, I play in a juicy online game with folks who are constantly saying "online is rigged!" and I have to constantly toe the line of sympathizing with them while gently refuting them so that they are reassured and keep playing lol.
But I've also found that some people are
much better than other people at certain things. This is a hotly debated topic in my industry (software development), but my experience has shown me that there are programmers ten (or more) times impactful than their counterparts ("10x developers"). Not only are they more impactful, in general,
they know what they are talking about. Garrett is probably better and more experienced at high stakes cash NLHE than anyone on this board is at anything. And while I don't know him, I have (sadly, lol!) watched hours of his play on various streams and listened to interviews with him on poker podcasts and he comes across as genuinely humble, always looking to improve, and a good sport. He was ready to take this beat with a smile if she flipped over J4o and exclaimed "Oh shit, I thought I had J3 (or Jc4c)!"
Thinking about this hand, one of the things that struck me was that Garrett seemed to know in an instant, as soon as she tabled the cards along with zero surprise on her part. It got me thinking about
Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. I'm not the hugest Gladwell fan, but I remember the opening of the book which described how the Getty Museum ultimately purchased a questionable ancient Greek statue (due to its immaculate condition) for millions of dollars because the paperwork was all in order and because it had some geological properties of being quite old. When an expert in Greek antiquities saw the statue at the museum for the first time, they instantly knew it was a fake, and turned out to be right -- the paperwork was forged, and it turned out you could cultivate calcite in a few years vs centuries. When to trust your gut and when not to is a complicated question, but there have been studies beyond
Blink that indicate folks with significant expertise in the subject matter have much better intuition about things pertaining to that subject than those that don't.
Unfortunately,
my gut reaction to the hand was irreversibly colored by the fact that I encountered it in the context of a "was Garrett cheated?!" video, so the combination of the context and my feelings about Garrett strongly predisposed me to think that, "Yep, she cheated!" After reading more from smart folks I respect (including on this board, e.g.,
@CrazyEddie and
@BGinGA), I watched more of the stream and that particular hand a few times, and, while it went against my (tainted) gut, it seemed plausible that she was just a confused person with an inflated ego who couldn't stand to ever look weak/dumb.
This was pre-Bryan revelations, and Garrett's post, which, some people, e.g.,
@CrazyEddie didn't think qualified as evidence.
Agreed, there's plenty to suggest that the people involved are dishonest.
None of that is evidence that any of them cheated.
Consider that I could accuse them of making me lose the last tournament I was in. Someone might reasonably ask me "Well, okay, what's your evidence?" I could then point to all of the very same things to show that they are suspicious, shady, our even outright dishonest, not to mention literal thieves caught red-handed stealing from each other! But none of that is evidence that they cheated me out of my tournament win. It's likewise not evidence that any of them cheated Garrett in that hand.
The only evidence of that has been, and so far remains, the fact that she made a very poor call, one which many people believe could not ever, ever, ever be made by someone who didn't know Garrett's hand.
I subscribe to the legal definition of evidence:
Evidence is
an item which a litigant proffers to make the existence of a fact more or less probable.
That's it. Not proof. Just something which
I argue makes something more or less probable. The other side can take the same fact and offer it as evidence
for the opposite conclusion.
Or, mathematically: evidence = fact + argument.
Garrett listed lots of facts as to the unscrupulous/suspicious behavior of the parties involved, and argues that it makes cheating more likely. Unless invalidated by other reasons (e.g., hearsay), this is evidence.
Now, it's apparently not
sufficient evidence for some people. But there's clearly
a lot of evidence that there was cheating involved.
And, like I said before about unsuccessful conspiracy theories, the more that comes about this, a complicated explanation becomes more and more possible.
At this point I feel it's likely that Garrett is pretty much spot on, with a small chance that no cheating happened (just typical shady degen behavior).
The one thing that I don't like from Garrett is his wholehearted indemnification of Ryan and Nick V. I get it, he's friends with them and they've made him a lot of money. But if the theories being offered about Bryan's role are true, the production company is extremely negligent here. And honestly, the integrity of the entire stream is in question.