Ignition 25NL Zone: Solid play or too spewy? (1 Viewer)

boltonguy

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UTG RFI to 3BB (standard), BN calls, Hero in BB calls with 44. I think this is standard.

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Wonderful flop. Hero X planning to raise. UTG cbets 1/3 or 3BB. BN raises to 9BB.
Hero thinks that the raise is either a FD, OESD, combo draw, or 55 (3 combos left so not super likely). QQ would raise pre so not in BN range.
I have huge equity against the draws and have 1 out against 55.
I think with 55 out there I should probably just flat - cant put a multi-way hand in the solver tho.
Instead I decide that there are so many more draw combos that they are more likely so I raise to 3X.

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UTG folds and BN jams. I guess you can see the equities in the playback ... but I did decide to call the jam and V had the NFD so I got it in good, and held.
As soon as he jammed I thought - NFD - and I was getting it in good calling.

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Was the flop raise too spewy? How about calling the jam? It worked out OK but I dont want to be results oriented.
EDIT: put it in Snowie below and looks like the raise and call was OK

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Snowie plays a mixed strategy here. I dont understand the "sub-optimal bet size" comment though.
If I choose the 1/4 pot bet size, Snowie only shows a call but all 3 options have the same EV

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i've never used snowy but i would guess it would also be calling here a good chunk of the time with 55 - which is to say, it's not calling because it's worried about him having a higher set. it's calling because you just don't have many hands you'd be wanting to bluff here with. the lower combo draws are inclined not to raise because higher flush draws are a big part of the first raisers bluffs. and the ace high flush draws want it to get 3 ways.
 
Never ever folding bottom set here.

Here's an article about the probability of holding set over set and why folding a set on the flop just because you're scared of a higher set is a costly mistake:
https://www.blackrain79.com/2016/08/set-over-set.html?m=1

The gist:
6 handed it happens about once in 12.600 hands. So as soon as you start folding the 3rd nuts on the flop you're burning money.
 

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