Jacks on the button in a sticky game (3 Viewers)

[DrStrange]

K6s is rarely priced in with a deep stack. The RIO risk of getting stacked by the ace high flush is too great. A hand like K6 flops two pair or trips about one time in 30. The reason you play it is for the flush draws. Folks could stay out of a lot of trouble by folding stuff like that preflop.

And it should be note that Hero didn't need the board to pair. Second set was leading all the way - Hero needed only to hope for bricks.

DrStrange

 

[joker80]

Wow, I want to play at this game.

 

[DrStrange]

This hand offers an interesting (to me anyway) question for how to plan the play of the hand. Once the action gets to Hero on the flop, he can see that it will take two pot sized bets to get all in.

One plan - raise flop (bet/fold vs bet/call?) and jam the turn. Hero shouldn't be looking for a reason to fold the turn once he has less than a pot sized bet left behind (and some of the effective stacks are somewhat less than pot sized.) Two big pluses - Hero is sure to get all in when he has the best hand and this sequence puts the most pressure on the villains.

Second plan - call flop and reevaluate turn. There are 20 scare cards, 20 bricks and 7 good cards for Hero. Hero's plan depends on a turn bet from one of the villains, SB would be best. (Don't take this option vs passive villains!) Hero will take a passive line on a scary turn, perhaps even a fold. Hero hopes to raise a turn bet and get all-in on a brick or full house(quads too) Best part of the plan, getting to see a turn before putting the bulk of the stack at risk. Biggest risks a) not getting all in, b) giving a cheap card to a villain with a weak hand.

We didn't discuss this much - several of us offered a version of one plan or the other, but almost no discussion took place.

So let's see what people think.

DrStrange

 

[Shaggy]

Talking to MP3 a little while after the hand, he stated he should have jammed the flop after my raise. That would've made it really hard for me to call... As I wanted to be able to exit if I suspected someone held AK.

I ran the equity of the two hands through propoker tools.
board: qc,ts,jc
Hand Equity
js,jd 51.14%
kc6c 48.86%

Nearly a coin flip with the actual hands.


From MP3's perspective, if he were against , he is barely a dog... and my actual hand has a real hard time calling.

board: qc,ts,jc
Hand Equity
ac,kd 59.43%
kc6c 40.57%

I just saw that the Dr replied above... I will respond to that next.

 

[Shaggy]

This hand offers an interesting (to me anyway) question for how to plan the play of the hand. Once the action gets to Hero on the flop, he can see that it will take two pot sized bets to get all in.

One plan - raise flop (bet/fold vs bet/call?) and jam the turn. Hero shouldn't be looking for a reason to fold the turn once he has less than a pot sized bet left behind (and some of the effective stacks are somewhat less than pot sized.) Two big pluses - Hero is sure to get all in when he has the best hand and this sequence puts the most pressure on the villains.

Second plan - call flop and reevaluate turn. There are 20 scare cards, 20 bricks and 7 good cards for Hero. Hero's plan depends on a turn bet from one of the villains, SB would be best. (Don't take this option vs passive villains!) Hero will take a passive line on a scary turn, perhaps even a fold. Hero hopes to raise a turn bet and get all-in on a brick or full house(quads too) Best part of the plan, getting to see a turn before putting the bulk of the stack at risk. Biggest risks a) not getting all in, b) giving a cheap card to a villain with a weak hand.

We didn't discuss this much - several of us offered a version of one plan or the other, but almost no discussion took place.

So let's see what people think.

DrStrange

My flop plan was definitely bet/fold, but admittedly I didn't have a turn plan. Ultimately the turn sizing depends on the number of flop callers. The way it played out, the turn jam was appropriate, but if only one caller saw the turn, I think a turn jam might be too big... ~$180 in the pot ~$180 in stack... maybe not too big.

Regarding plan 2. I think it would be reasonably likely that any of the three would bet the turn if checked to... SB possibly least likely however.

 

[Ben]

IMO raising the flop (whether jamming or raising smaller) is clearly more +EV than calling - some hands with equity will fold, many hands will call or jam that shouldn't (given that hero actually has a set.) Villains will rarely show up with AK limp-called pre. The only advantage of calling is lower variance - if you can't handle the variance, don't play. This is one of the best money-making spots you will find, from a gross EV perspective of your hand vs. opponents' ranges. Hero should never ever ever ever ever be raise-folding this flop.

 

[RainmanTrail]

I would have raised to $5-6 pre. Making $10 raises is just asking for trouble. Do you guys really want to play a huge (relative to the game) pot with JJ?

On flop, it's an easy shove. Sometimes you'll run into AK, but that's just part of the game. Any other play here is a mistake.

 

[stocky]

I would have raised to $5-6 pre. Making $10 raises is just asking for trouble. Do you guys really want to play a huge (relative to the game) pot with JJ?

On flop, it's an easy shove. Sometimes you'll run into AK, but that's just part of the game. Any other play here is a mistake.

Jamming flop is terrible IMO. Who is calling a jam for $245 into a $97(?) pot? Either AK or no one.

 

[joker80]

Talking to MP3 a little while after the hand, he stated he should have jammed the flop after my raise. That would've made it really hard for me to call... As I wanted to be able to exit if I suspected someone held AK.

I ran the equity of the two hands through propoker tools.
board: qc,ts,jc
Hand Equity
js,jd 51.14%
kc6c 48.86%

Nearly a coin flip with the actual hands.


From MP3's perspective, if he were against , he is barely a dog... and my actual hand has a real hard time calling.

board: qc,ts,jc
Hand Equity
ac,kd 59.43%
kc6c 40.57%

I just saw that the Dr replied above... I will respond to that next.

?? Is equity not the same as chance to win?? I got it at 59.7 % to 38.48 % with 1.82 % to tie

 

[joker80]

68.2 to 32.8 after the turn

 

[RainmanTrail]

Jamming flop is terrible IMO. Who is calling a jam for $245 into a $97(?) pot? Either AK or no one.

You're wrong

 

[detroitdad]

Also, I want to point out that I don't think this is a "sticky" situation. You have a solid starting hand in position with a family limped pot.

 

[joker80]

Also, I want to point out that I don't think this is a "sticky" situation. You have a solid starting hand in position with a family limped pot.

I think he means the other players are sticky. They call raises with marginal hands or on draws but are passive overall

 

[stocky]

You're wrong

You're a wanker

 

[Shaggy]

Jamming flop is terrible IMO. Who is calling a jam for $245 into a $97(?) pot? Either AK or no one.

You're wrong

How so? Stocky's statement seems completely valid and is generally how I view the situation.

I think he means the other players are sticky. They call raises with marginal hands or on draws but are passive overall

Yes, this is what I meant. I was not in a sticky situation, the opponents are sticky... They hang around.

 

[Ben]

Jamming flop is terrible IMO. Who is calling a jam for $245 into a $97(?) pot? Either AK or no one.

$225 into a $117 pot once Hero catches up to the bet (and only against one villain; the other villains are shorter-stacked,) and I know many who would here with KQ, QJ, TT, or a combo draw. Some with maybe even less. More importantly, given the stack sizes involved, jamming is the only way to ensure that the villains are making a mistake by calling and not getting the right price to draw at any point. But, I can also respect the raise to $75 to induce some lighter action, as long as it followed by a jam on a blank turn (and never followed by folding to a 3-bet!)

 

[guinness]

Preflop: $10 given the table images. Fish out two $5 chips, watch as the calls get contagious to other players.
Flop: Yay! Nobody is rep'ing AK. K9/89 possible, but we can't play with fear just yet.

I agree with Ben that some people will call with marginal equity, I disagree with Ben that jam is the right move given deep stacks. My concern is that their perceived equity isn't up to the Ben perception for a call, given that hero image is a fit or fold TAG. Also, I like giving myself opportunities on the turn (jam/fold if other info demonstrated) plus give others the opportunity to bluff jam on the flop. Nobody has demonstrated that they will call a jam. I bet out $75 and expect calls because OP mentioned no one respects his bets but I think everyone would respect his TAG jam. By disrespect I'm assuming he is a TAG and the LAGs love to call his minor bets to bust him, but the LAGs know better when calling stacks. $75 is optimal me thinks.

Turn is a jam no mattah. I think I get at least 220BB more (assuming both villains call $55 extra on $75 raise) versus flop jam if hand ranges are accurate given DEEP stacks.

 

[Shaggy]

Suppose hero raises the flop to $75 and SB proceeds to jam. BB and MP3 fold. I think it is highly unlikely SB is doing this with a hand other than AK (or K9). In that position, I am drawing to a full house. Assuming SB has me covered, I am looking to call $170 for ~$400... so 2.35:1. I have 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn. The math to combine that escapes me... so lets pretend I have 10 outs with two cards to come... 40%... so 60:40 is 1.5:1... yeah, looks like I have to call.

 

[detroitdad]

Preflop: $10 given the table images. Fish out two $5 chips, watch as the calls get contagious to other players.
Flop: Yay! Nobody is rep'ing AK. K9/89 possible, but we can't play with fear just yet.

I agree with Ben that some people will call with marginal equity, I disagree with Ben that jam is the right move given deep stacks. My concern is that their perceived equity isn't up to the Ben perception for a call, given that hero image is a fit or fold TAG. Also, I like giving myself opportunities on the turn (jam/fold if other info demonstrated) plus give others the opportunity to bluff jam on the flop. Nobody has demonstrated that they will call a jam. I bet out $75 and expect calls because OP mentioned no one respects his bets but I think everyone would respect his TAG jam. By disrespect I'm assuming he is a TAG and the LAGs love to call his minor bets to bust him, but the LAGs know better when calling stacks. $75 is optimal me thinks.

Turn is a jam no mattah. I think I get at least 220BB more (assuming both villains call $55 extra on $75 raise) versus flop jam if hand ranges are accurate given DEEP stacks.

I don't think I ever want to play cards with you. Drink with you, yes........cards, no......

 

[DrStrange]

35% to make a full house from a flopped set.

 

[Marius L]

I didnt read the whole thread, but my line here is very similar to heros. We have to assume we are almost always ahead on the flop, and so I disagree with a lot of the comments about flat calling. We have to raise, and I would probably make it somewhere in the 75-100 range (I am also calling 3bet jam on the flop), and prepare to shove every turn that is not a flush/straight card. The 6 on the turn makes shoving the turn really easy. ggs

 

[Marius L]

Suppose hero raises the flop to $75 and SB proceeds to jam. BB and MP3 fold. I think it is highly unlikely SB is doing this with a hand other than AK (or K9). In that position, I am drawing to a full house. Assuming SB has me covered, I am looking to call $170 for ~$400... so 2.35:1. I have 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn. The math to combine that escapes me... so lets pretend I have 10 outs with two cards to come... 40%... so 60:40 is 1.5:1... yeah, looks like I have to call.

I agree you have to call if villain 3bet shoves on the flop, but I dont agree that he will only do it with a flopped straight. I think it is likely he could jam with two pair or some sort of combo draw as well in this spot.

 

[Shaggy]

I agree you have to call if villain 3bet shoves on the flop, but I dont agree that he will only do it with a flopped straight. I think it is likely he could jam with two pair or some sort of combo draw as well in this spot.

I think typical aggressive villains would follow the line you propose. For the three players remaining in the hand, I would only put MP3 in that category. SB is a slim maybe to jam with less than a flopped straight. BB is never jamming period.

This is a pretty passive game.

 

[RainmanTrail]

Jamming flop is terrible IMO. Who is calling a jam for $245 into a $97(?) pot? Either AK or no one.

You're wrong

You're a wanker

How so? Stocky's statement seems completely valid and is generally how I view the situation.

Sorry for the douchebaggy approach to answering this question. I was just having some fun, but I was also not joking when I said Stocky was wrong. There are several hands other than AK that would be calling off stacks here. It's going to be a long post with a pretty detailed explanation to show why that's the case. Be even if you're only getting called by AK, that still doesn't make shoving a mistake. I'll try to get to it tonight. I'm caught up at work at the moment...

Here's a hint though...

You give me K high flush draw, I'm shoving here. You give me A high flush draw, I'm shoving here. You give me KQ, I'm shoving here with the right reads on my opponents, you give me TT, JJ, QQ, QJ, and again, I'm shoving in certain spots. You give me K9, I'm shoving. You give me 89, I'm shoving... You get the point.

 

[Marius L]

You give me K high flush draw, I'm shoving here. You give me A high flush draw, I'm shoving here. You give me KQ, I'm shoving here with the right reads on my opponents, you give me TT, JJ, QQ, QJ, and again, I'm shoving in certain spots. You give me K9, I'm shoving. You give me 89, I'm shoving... You get the point.

As far as i see it, although you might shove with these hands, you are likely not getting a call with anything else than made hands. And most likely only strong made hands. This is because if you shove directly here you overbet the pot big and thus most thinking villains will fold their draws, as they get really bad odds. shoving 250$ into a pot of less than 100$ seems to be a way too scared apporached when you are SO likely to be way ahead in this spot, and you basically loose a lot of potential value by making worse hands fold

 

[stocky]

Sorry for the douchebaggy approach to answering this question. I was just having some fun, but I was also not joking when I said Stocky was wrong. There are several hands other than AK that would be calling off stacks here. It's going to be a long post with a pretty detailed explanation to show why that's the case. Be even if you're only getting called by AK, that still doesn't make shoving a mistake. I'll try to get to it tonight. I'm caught up at work at the moment...

Here's a hint though...

You give me K high flush draw, I'm shoving here. You give me A high flush draw, I'm shoving here. You give me KQ, I'm shoving here with the right reads on my opponents, you give me TT, JJ, QQ, QJ, and again, I'm shoving in certain spots. You give me K9, I'm shoving. You give me 89, I'm shoving... You get the point.

Maybe I should've elaborated. AK of course isn't the only hand calling, my point was meant to be you're likely only getting called by a made hand. I think with the villains they are unlikely to call a shove on a draw. Best case scenario for us is maybe a call from two pair or TT. Again IMO. I don't claim to be a pro, but I also don't just declare anyone else wrong just because I think I'm better than everyone else without following it up.

I still stand by my earlier statement, you've shown us enough that you have a high opinion of yourself. And believe you can't be wrong. Please continue to tell us how much better you are and keep mucking those winning hands on unsuspecting players. Obviously a top bloke.

 

[RainmanTrail]

"Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I'll spend the first four sharpening the axe."

-Abraham Lincoln

I see a lot of people trying to chop down the tree in this thread, but no one is sharpening the axe.

 

[stocky]

Other than saying jam the flop everything else is wrong you've contributed nothing to this thread.

 

[RainmanTrail]

Other than saying jam the flop everything else is wrong you've contributed nothing to this thread.

True story

 

[detroitdad]

?

Other than saying jam the flop everything else is wrong you've contributed nothing to this thread.

Is contributing necessary ? Damm. I'll have to quit posting