Jacks on the button in a sticky game (2 Viewers)

There is a meta-game reason to shove the flop (2x pot over bet) with middle set. If Hero commonly makes that play with a wide range of hands, then doing it with a big made hand can be quite profitable as part of a larger strategy. I seem to recall a discussion of this in one of Phil Gordon's books (a long time ago). This type of play likely isn't a very profitable line if Hero 2x pot jam range is sets or better.

DrStrange
 
I still stand by my earlier statement, you've shown us enough that you have a high opinion of yourself. And believe you can't be wrong. Please continue to tell us how much better you are and keep mucking those winning hands on unsuspecting players. Obviously a top bloke.

I don't think you understand how important I am though... I'm typing to you from my MacBook Pro. A GOD DAMNED MACBOOK PRO! Clearly, I command the utmost respect!
 
Sorry, I don't have the time to offer a proper breakdown of the hand as I promised, but I will at least try to give you a fair response as the only advice I've offered so far is "Shove. Anything else is a mistake." and "You're wrong Stocky". But @Shaggy, you're on the right track with what I'm reading from you in this thread.

In the hand, no one has given you any reason to assume they have AK. Sure, it's possible, but it's going to be distributed less often than normal given the action. From what you've described about the game, the villains appear to have a very wide range here. I'd be more scared of running into 89 than I would AK. If I'm playing this hand, the most important thing for me to protect against is a combo draw like the K high flush draw, or flush draw with an 8,9, or A in it. In the actual hand, villain had a Kc6c.

If you raise it to $75 on the flop, you're making it correct for A LOT of hands to call you. This is why I said it's a mistake. A raise to $75 means you're calling the $20, and putting in $55 more. So, your first opponent is staring at a $172 pot (97+75) that costs $55 to call, and if he calls, the second opponent is getting $227 for $55. That's over 3:1 for the first caller, and over 4:1 for the second. These are massive odds. You only need 20% equity if you're getting 4 to 1 on your money to break even, and 25% equity if your'e getting 3:1. This means that even A8s with a double gutshot and a backdoor flush draw would have correct odds to call all in at that price against JJ in this spot. That's not what you want to do. You want to make them pay MORE for their draws than those draws are worth. Obviously there's more to the analysis than just cards being face up, hence I said I don't have time for the full breakdown (we would need to discuss your full shoving range, and count combos for your possible holdings as well as theirs, then use bayesian statistics and probability theory to break it all down), but I think you get the point. You should be thinking about the draw you need to protect against, and calculate the proper bet size against that hand.

The hands I'd be most worried about are K high flush draw, AcQc, Ac8c, or any flush draw with a 9 in it. These all have about the same equity as each other (all of which if I had them, I'd be jamming this pot with - among other hands). So, let's figure out how much we need to raise to in order for a King hi flush draw (or any of these) to be making a mistake by calling our raise. Obv there are other hands to worry about (AK or QQ, but if someone turns up with those hands, you're getting felted regardless. Those situations suck, but you'll be on the receiving end eventually. Those situations will even out in the long run.)

First, we calculate our equity against these hands. It's about 60% to their 40% (60.6% to 39.4% and 61/39). So, how much do we need to raise in order for someone with 40% equity to be making a mistake? The math is simple. If someone is getting 3 to 2 on their money, then they only need 40% to break even. So, how much do you need to raise it to in order for them to be getting 3 to 2 on their money? First, you must call the $20 bet before you raise. Once we call the $20, the pot is at $117. So, if we raise 2x the pot, then we are raising it to $254 ($20 call plus 2x117 = 254). Now, look from the villain's perspective. They now have to call $234 more to win $351 (your 234 raise + the 117 in the pot). This is a 3:2 payoff. The magic number we're looking for. So, raising it to $254 is a breakeven proposition for any of those hands with 40% equity to call. Which means, you need to raise it to MORE than this if you want them to make a mistake by calling you. However, you don't even have $254 in your stack, and neither does one of the other callers (I believe you said he only had $150 or something to begin with?). The good player is the only one that has you covered. So, like I said, you're best move here is to shove. You're not even deep enough to protect your hand correctly. Raising it to just $75 is not just a mistake, it's a fairly big leak. You're not just pricing people in, you're giving them GREAT odds on any draw. This is one of the most common leaks that amateurs have. They think "I raised it HUGE. I made it $75 and these donkeys called me and sucked out! I'm so unlucky!" Not realizing that they are the ones making the mistake, not the callers. Note, that playing this way also gets you paid off when you have big hands (You should be shoving quite a few hands here by the way. Not just JJ). Players will always remember when you shoved on a semi-bluff, or when you just had two pair, or a set, and not the nuts. You'll get paid off bigtime next time you're holding the AK instead of the JJ. Also worth pointing out is that this is a CASH GAME strategy, NOT a tournament strategy. There's a huge difference when losing means you just dig back into your pocket and rebuy vs busting out of an event.

Note: there's no point in worrying about the off chance you might run into AK here. It might happen, but it's a slim chance given the action, and you guys aren't deep enough to be able to fold your set anyhow. If someone has AK, your fate is sealed. You're just going to have to stack off anyhow and hope for the board to pair.

The reason strong players win at poker is because they put their opponents in situations where they make mistakes (as you've pointed out from Sklansky's 'Theory of Poker'). If you put your opponent in a position where it's correct for him to call with just about anything reasonable, you're not only not earning more money in the hand, you're actually forfeiting a significant portion of the pot which is currently yours.



- Just a suggestion
If you really want to improve your game, I wouldn't be looking to these forums for advice. I'm sure there are a few chippers that know what they're doing, but this is a forum for people that enjoy collecting poker chips. It's not a strategy site. I've browsed through some of the strategy threads here, and have seen a tidal wave of bad advice and poor play, with only a few voices that know what they're talking about. The majority of the opinions you're going to get in here are going to be flawed. That's just poker. @stocky basically called me an idiot for saying you should shove, and there were like 3 or 4 people that 'liked' his post. Don't pay attention to the number of voices backing a particular viewpoint, but rather evaluate the responses on the merit of what they're saying. Always do the math yourself. Most of these situations can be solved mathematically, given the right assumptions. You probably already know about the 2+2 strategy forums, but that's a great place to learn if you want to sharpen your skills. Sure, there are plenty of donks on there as well, but you can quickly figure out who is and isn't worth listening to. There are a ton of world class players there that, for whatever reason, can't wait to tell you how to fix your leaks for free. Most of the players here are casual low stakes players that just enjoy playing and talking about poker. Nothing wrong with that, but it's not where you should be looking for advice if you want to become a solid winning player.
 
Lol read what I wrote. I called you a wanker, not an idiot. Big difference. IMO means In My Opinion. I never said you were wrong, I said I believed it was the wrong move.
 
BTW I'm pretty much a PCF P* pro. I know how to check, check, catch, jam and win.
 
Glad I could entertain. Best of luck on the felt gents.

-WankmanTrail signing out
 
Suppose hero raises the flop to $75 and SB proceeds to jam. BB and MP3 fold. I think it is highly unlikely SB is doing this with a hand other than AK (or K9). In that position, I am drawing to a full house. Assuming SB has me covered, I am looking to call $170 for ~$400... so 2.35:1. I have 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn. The math to combine that escapes me... so lets pretend I have 10 outs with two cards to come... 40%... so 60:40 is 1.5:1... yeah, looks like I have to call.

To do the math, you first figure out your odds of missing your draw, then subtract that from 1 to get your odds of hitting it.

So in this instance, your odds of missing your full house, assuming you are up against either AK, K9, or 89, are 38/45 * 34/44 = 0.6525.

So your odds of hitting it are 1-0.6525 = 0.3475, or 34.75%
 
I appreciate the response RainmanTrail.

Regarding pricing out the Kc6c hand that MP3 had. After my call, there is $117 in the pot as you noted. My raise on top was only $55 more. So SB is looking to call 55 to win 172 so 3.1:1 and so is any future player if no player calls before them. If SB calls, then BB is facing 55 to win 227, so 4.1:1. If BB calls, MP3 is facing 55 to win 282, so 5.1:1. He has 12 outs, so ~22% to make his hand. 78/22 = 3.5:1 therefore as you pointed out, he is priced in... even SB almost has direct odds to call... certainly with implied odds he would be right to call.

I think the real key to this hand that is sinking in is the issue with the raise size and so many potential callers... and the wave of calls that will likely occur after the first call... and them being correct to do so.

So maybe the follow up question. In a scenario where there are potentially many callers, where the last caller can be getting tremendous odds... lets say there were five callers and we were super deep. Do I size my raise to price out that fifth caller, with the assumption that the 4 callers before him call? In this scenario, the bet would be very large... and unlikely that I would actually get this many callers... I suppose the answer is "it depends."
 
I appreciate the response RainmanTrail.

Regarding pricing out the Kc6c hand that MP3 had. After my call, there is $117 in the pot as you noted. My raise on top was only $55 more. So SB is looking to call 55 to win 172 so 3.1:1 and so is any future player if no player calls before them. If SB calls, then BB is facing 55 to win 227, so 4.1:1. If BB calls, MP3 is facing 55 to win 282, so 5.1:1. He has 12 outs, so ~22% to make his hand. 78/22 = 3.5:1 therefore as you pointed out, he is priced in... even SB almost has direct odds to call... certainly with implied odds he would be right to call.

I think the real key to this hand that is sinking in is the issue with the raise size and so many potential callers... and the wave of calls that will likely occur after the first call... and them being correct to do so.

So maybe the follow up question. In a scenario where there are potentially many callers, where the last caller can be getting tremendous odds... lets say there were five callers and we were super deep. Do I size my raise to price out that fifth caller, with the assumption that the 4 callers before him call? In this scenario, the bet would be very large... and unlikely that I would actually get this many callers... I suppose the answer is "it depends."

Something else worth keeping in mind is that there is more than one way to get an opponent to make a mistake. You can get them to make the mistake we've spoken about earlier, which is to overpay on a draw, but you can also get them to make a mistake by folding a hand that they actually had odds to call with. So, if you make what seems to them like an overbet, and they lay down a profitable draw, then of course you reap the benefits.

However, as you're now moving on to, it becomes clear that there is an inflection point of sorts in NL holdem where everyone loses the ability to price each other out of pots. This often happens rather quickly, especially in 200BB or less games, and is the primary motivation behind players using pot control tactics. They often forfeit a smaller edge on earlier streets in exchange for a larger edge later. Once you cross this inflection point, the game more closely resembles limit holdem in that the best you can hope for is to gain additional smaller value bets. This balancing of bet sizing strategies and pot control is one of the key differentiators of good players and elite players. One of the other coaches that used to produce videos at pokerstrategy.com, and a few other sites, Brian Townsend, has done a ton of work on this. He even hired a software developer to code up all of his logic for him and produced a pretty sick application that optimizes his equity and bet sizing strategies. Unfortunately, he asked me not to share it with anyone though, so I can't. I would watch some (actually I'd watch them all) of his videos though if you are interested in seeing how a top player handles these sticky situations. He's one of the best IMO. I'd wager my left nut that he would also snap shove JJ in the OP hand on the flop.

To answer your question, I would first want to decide on how much variance I'm willing to accept in my bankroll, as this is directly in control of your risk of ruin, and ultimately the stakes you can play in without guaranteeing you'd go bust. If you don't care about variance, and stack sizes are infinite, then it's a moot point, as you can just price people out regardless. The key is whether or not you're able to price them out. If you can't price them out, then you need to figure out what your best chance is of coercing them into making mistakes. Figure that spot out, and put them in a tough position. If they respond correctly, and you don't think you have a large edge in the pot, then it's time to slow down. At this point, it becomes more about figuring out if you have the best hand or not, and value betting when you do, and losing the least when you don't.

Personally, I like low variance poker, as it allows me to maximize my hourly rate with the smallest bankroll. However, there's a bit of a ceiling to this strategy, as you often find yourself in mid-stakes limit games like O8 and LHE. I need a larger BR for the same amount of profit to handle the swings at NL. Plus, I just enjoy playing limit games more, so there's that. Everyone at the NL tables seems to think they are Phil Ivey. It gets old. I enjoy the company of the old farts at an O8 table more than I do the punk-ass 21 year olds who talk shit with their sunglasses and hoodies on.
 
Note, this is also why Barry Greenstein prefers playing a short stack. It allows him to control his variance. But people give him a lot of shit for being a short stacker...
 
If you raise it to $75 on the flop, you're making it correct for A LOT of hands to call you. This is why I said it's a mistake. A raise to $75 means you're calling the $20, and putting in $55 more. So, your first opponent is staring at a $172 pot (97+75) that costs $55 to call, and if he calls, the second opponent is getting $227 for $55. That's over 3:1 for the first caller, and over 4:1 for the second. These are massive odds. You only need 20% equity if you're getting 4 to 1 on your money to break even, and 25% equity if your'e getting 3:1. This means that even A8s with a double gutshot and a backdoor flush draw would have correct odds to call all in at that price against JJ in this spot. That's not what you want to do. You want to make them pay MORE for their draws than those draws are worth. Obviously there's more to the analysis than just cards being face up, hence I said I don't have time for the full breakdown (we would need to discuss your full shoving range, and count combos for your possible holdings as well as theirs, then use bayesian statistics and probability theory to break it all down), but I think you get the point. You should be thinking about the draw you need to protect against, and calculate the proper bet size against that hand.

I agree with some of your points, like not being afraid of AK here, but i think your math is a quite far off on the draws. I do however agree that raising more that 55$ would be better. How about making it 100$ on the flop, which leaves us with a nice stack of 150$ to jam a blank turn?

Now you claim A8 with backdoor flushdraw can make a good flop-call here, but that is assuming he can get to see both turn and river with only calling that one bet. Considering we are betting again on the turn, he will only have less than 20% to hit his straight, and it would in other words make it a very bad call by him.

I agree it is hard to not price in a huge combo-draw on the flop, but that is just because of the fact that combo-draws like this are super strong against everything with two cards to come, and basically impossible to price out if you end up allin on the flop. (Which is why people tend to play draws like that super hard and dont mind playing these very agressive on the flop.) I think one thing you fail to see in your analysis is that worse draws will also call a flopraise often. A hand like KQ, KJ, Q9, or other pair and open ended straight draw hands will likely call a pretty big raise on the flop, but actually not have the correct odds. They will have less than 20% (1:4) to hit a straight on the turn , so even the small 55$ raise is making this a bad call for the first player. If we make it 100$ total on the flop, first caller will need to call about 75 to win 200, or just a bit more than 2:1. This sizing doesnt even price in the second caller if he holds a pair w/straight draw or naked flush draw. (75:275 or 1:3,75ish)

I agree we will sometimes run into a Axc or Kxc which gives villain 12 or 15 outs or about 25-30% chance to hit his card on the turn. This means he needs something like 1:3 or 1:2 to make a profitable call on the flop depending on if he has a Axc or Kxc. Raising to $100 gives the first caller a bit better than 2:1, so if he has Kxc here he will have a good price. However even Axc with 12outs is actually not priced in at this price. I think the value of tempting the other worse draws to make a bad call is worth it considering we are not very likely to meet the crazy good kxc here all too often. If we jam directly on the flop we loose a lot of value from all of the hands that will be forced to fold. (Like naked straight or flush draws or pair/draw variants).

Lets say we make it 100$ and get one caller we can shove 150 into 275 on the river, giving oponent 150:425 or a bit worse than 1:3. Here he will then be forced to make a bad call if he has less than 12 outs, which is everything except Axc which would be about breakeven and kxc which would be slightly profitable for him.

To recap i think jaming the flop is surely +ev, but i think you will get more value by playing a bit less scared. You will get action from a lot of hands on this flop other than flush/straight combo-draws, and smaller raises will keep these from folding.

(Some of the calculations might be a bit off as i only did it in my head, but should be about right. Also i left out implied odds as well as your odds of filling your house.)
 
I agree with some of your points, like not being afraid of AK here, but i think your math is a quite far off on the draws. I do however agree that raising more that 55$ would be better. How about making it 100$ on the flop, which leaves us with a nice stack of 150$ to jam a blank turn?

Now you claim A8 with backdoor flushdraw can make a good flop-call here, but that is assuming he can get to see both turn and river with only calling that one bet. Considering we are betting again on the turn, he will only have less than 20% to hit his straight, and it would in other words make it a very bad call by him.

I agree it is hard to not price in a huge combo-draw on the flop, but that is just because of the fact that combo-draws like this are super strong against everything with two cards to come, and basically impossible to price out if you end up allin on the flop. (Which is why people tend to play draws like that super hard and dont mind playing these very agressive on the flop.) I think one thing you fail to see in your analysis is that worse draws will also call a flopraise often. A hand like KQ, KJ, Q9, or other pair and open ended straight draw hands will likely call a pretty big raise on the flop, but actually not have the correct odds. They will have less than 20% (1:4) to hit a straight on the turn , so even the small 55$ raise is making this a bad call for the first player. If we make it 100$ total on the flop, first caller will need to call about 75 to win 200, or just a bit more than 2:1. This sizing doesnt even price in the second caller if he holds a pair w/straight draw or naked flush draw. (75:275 or 1:3,75ish)

I agree we will sometimes run into a Axc or Kxc which gives villain 12 or 15 outs or about 25-30% chance to hit his card on the turn. This means he needs something like 1:3 or 1:2 to make a profitable call on the flop depending on if he has a Axc or Kxc. Raising to $100 gives the first caller a bit better than 2:1, so if he has Kxc here he will have a good price. However even Axc with 12outs is actually not priced in at this price. I think the value of tempting the other worse draws to make a bad call is worth it considering we are not very likely to meet the crazy good kxc here all too often. If we jam directly on the flop we loose a lot of value from all of the hands that will be forced to fold. (Like naked straight or flush draws or pair/draw variants).

Lets say we make it 100$ and get one caller we can shove 150 into 275 on the river, giving oponent 150:425 or a bit worse than 1:3. Here he will then be forced to make a bad call if he has less than 12 outs, which is everything except Axc which would be about breakeven and kxc which would be slightly profitable for him.

To recap i think jaming the flop is surely +ev, but i think you will get more value by playing a bit less scared. You will get action from a lot of hands on this flop other than flush/straight combo-draws, and smaller raises will keep these from folding.

(Some of the calculations might be a bit off as i only did it in my head, but should be about right. Also i left out implied odds as well as your odds of filling your house.)

This is what I was referring to when I said I didn't have the time to do a full breakdown, which requires covering all the scenarios of hands you're up against, and using bayesian statistics to break them all down. There are several other hands that we could profit off of with smaller bet sizes. But we don't have very deep stacks here. If we had deeper stacks in play, then I would be ok with a bet somewhere in the neighborhood of $150, but the fact that the BB only has $145 left, and the only other player at the table has us covered and is seemingly described as the best player at the table (less likely to make mistakes) then I say shove. If we make it less than 150, I think we're giving up too much. And if we do that, we can't even fold on the turn if a bad card falls. We'd be priced in. This is why I'm saying just shove it all in.

I don't hate a raise to $100 then $150 on the turn against the right opponents, but in this hand, there's a short stack and a solid player left. It's not time to mess around and try to extract a few dollars. I'd just take the pot down now and be happy. It's a good pot. I still think $100 is too low though, even if they suck.
 
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I encourage strategy posters to avoid making blanket statements demeaning the offerings of other posters. Personal attacks will derail the discussion, deter comments from members of the community and likely result in retaliatory attacks on the author in unexpected ways and times (if not in the thread itself). There is a reason why we use terms like "hero" and "villain" rather than offering people's personal names or user names. The goal is to allow a vibrant debate / discussion about the game while not exposing the posters to personal attacks. I believe it is possible to point out why a hand was misplayed without judging or denigrating the player or poster.

It would greatly misguided to suggest that we do not benefit from a wide range of skill being represented by the posters in a thread. The games we play in are populated by a wide range of skilled players. There is a lot of value in understanding why people make the decisions that they do. And the weaker players benefit from seeing how stronger players see situations if the discussion can be kept friendly. {Let me say it takes courage to post a hand that didn't get played right knowing that your mistakes are going to be opened up for the community to discuss.}

In this specific hand, I would love to read about how the player with ATo was thinking about the hand at each step. I think that player made some mistakes that might become a learning opportunity for him/her. I also think there is a lot to be learned about how I should be playing in a game populated with players like that. The nature of the villains at the table is really important to the strategy driving our play.

While it is likely true that the average skill level of the posting community at PCF is not as high as the better posters posting on the 2+2 live low stakes NL forum. It is also true {in my experience posting on 2+2} that the 2+2 forum is blinded to the nature of home poker vs casino poker and largely uninterested in adapting their advise / discussion to suit the game. It is not easy for me to decide which is better - a thicker pool of skilled players posting on 2+2 who don't know or care about home game dynamics - or a more diverse pool of posters who are able to relate to home game dynamics.

We all have something to learn, no matter how long we have played or how big our win rate is -=- DrStrange

PS As a side note - the 2+2 forums often have a high degree of turnover of newer / less skilled posters due to the toxic, nasty environment that crops up from time to time. Not that the offensive, nasty posts are not often strategically correct in their assessments of play but it doesn't seem very good for the community.
 
Now lets return to the hand.

Hero gets seven way action with a $5 preflop raise. $37 in the pot. Hero holds :jd: :js:

Flop was :qc: :jc: :td:

SB does Hero a favor and makes a half pot bet that clears out half the field.

Action is on Hero, $97 in the pot and Hero owes $20 to call.

SB has $175 left and is described as solid/tricky
BB has $145 left and is a calling station who will bet/bluff when facing weakness
MP3 covers everyone and is skilled.
Hero will have $225 left after he catches up to the $20 bet from the SB and the pot will be $117.

We know the results, so the discussion is tainted.

Roughly three plans we offered in the discussion.
a) Hero should check, taking a passive line and evaluate the hand once the turn is known on the presumption that one of the villains will bet the turn - ideally SB bets the turn.
b) Hero should go all in, a $225 bet into a $117 pot, accepting that stacks are going in vs a made hand anyway but at least no one will be getting the proper price to call
c) Hero should raise. The suggested amount was $75 but some of us are thinking that might not be large enough.

Since we know the results anyway, I am going to use them to make some adjustments to the villain reads - Hero has significant playing time with the villains and likely does know a lot more than he wrote in the OP.

SB has $175 left. He is solid/tricky. Capable of bet folding. Likely borders on loose-aggressive post flop. Is not positionally aware. Does not read board texture well (or at least doesn't apply it well). He might have betting tells but one hand does not make a tell.
BB has $145 left and is a sticky calling station. He will bet/bluff facing weakness sometimes but isn't eager to jump on the first moment of passive play. I doubt he thinks much about the other player's hands but he does know enough to "feel" weakness.
MP3 is skilled. Maybe passive tricky/trappy. He can make semi bluff raises but is not greatly aggressive.

My original assessment was hero should take a tricky/passive line. But I think I over valued SB's aggression, under appreciated the implications of the half pot bet and under appreciated the stickiness of BB. Hero should bet because a) there is some doubt about SB betting the turn on a brick b) BB isn't betting much of his range unless he hits the turn c) MP3 might well check through a turn brick - i.e. hero can not count on someone else betting his hand for him on a safe turn d) a scare card could kill the action and e) There is a significant risk one or more villain is on weak to modest draw exposing hero to a RIO risk.

The question is how much should Hero raise?

Let's start by noting that Hero can't price out the biggest combo draws with a shove. The Kx of clubs has ~40% equity vs a set and the same vs a flopped broadway. ~45% to 52% vs a lesser straight. The only hand Kx of clubs fears is Ax of clubs (esp :ac: :tc:). Hero's big all in yields a 39.6% breakeven for MP3 to call with the most at risk. The other villains have a much easier call. So the all in bet gets called by all the made straights, the best combo draws and the other two sets. The all in bet likely folds weaker draws, but I'd expect the nut flush draws to call (properly so from SB and/or the BB) MP3 would be making a mistake to call (33% equity vs 40% pot odds)

A shove does offer Hero lower variance by driving off many of the drawing hands. The gutter balls and even straight draws will fold, though BB might call since the price is the lowest. The price Hero pays for the shove is folding out all the hands with terrible equity - eg the :ad: :tc: has 18% equity vs hero's hand.

If Hero makes a smaller raise he will need to consider who he is targeting understanding there is a tradeoff to be made. The harder Hero tries to charge MP3 the right price the less likely he is to get calls from the calling station in the big blind and to a lesser extent the SB (but we know SB can bet/fold and might well have a weak hand given his weak bet sizing) A $55 raise into a $117 pot seems a bit too small. Maybe $75 or $80 on top or $95 to $100 all day might be better. Let's be clear that this bet is pot committing to Hero and should pot commit all the villains.

I recommend targeting the calling station. The BB is likely the easiest money in play. There is too much chance SB and/or MP3 are folding anyway to make them the proper target. Let's go for the low hanging fruit. I think $75 on top or $95 all day is my preferred line.

DrStrange
 
Another concern is that if all 3 players have some sort of combo draw, and we bet small enough that all 3 call us (which I think is likely with a raise to $100), we now have to dodge more outs. The reason I like the all-in play is that we have the best potential for all players involved to make a mistake. The solid MP3 may fold his combo draw if he thinks the straight end of it is drawing half dead, and the poor player that showed up with the AT is quite likely to overpay with something like... well, AT :)
 
I respectfully disagree about there being much chance for a villain to make a serious mistake vs a Hero shove. The villains are folding all but the top of their range, just the best hands / best draws call. The shorter stacks offer little chance for their call to be an error (unless someone calls with AT, not out of the question for BB). We already know that MP3 is almost neutral about calling with a open ender + flush draw, meaning Hero doesn't gain or lose much expected value based on a fold or a call by MP3. Best hope for Hero to profit is MP3 to call with the nut flush draw + broadway gut shot.

As for Hero needing to dodge a lot of outs in a four way pot. That is absolutely true, almost. Hero has lots of potential outs to fear but the villains could hold a disproportionate number of each other's outs. However, Hero runs a limited RIO risk vs SB and BB due to their short stacks since his redraw is roughly 20%. Let's not forget Hero is putting one fourth of the money in the pot while letting the villains draw. Hero likely has just over 50% of the equity in a four way hand and can't be out played by SB or BB.

The pot would be $95 x 4 + $37 = $417 and the remaining effective stacks are SB = $80, BB = $50, MP3 = $150. Even a potential MP3 $150 river value bet is not that big a risk to Hero, the pot would be $717 and hero has ~20% equity ----> a $7 error to call.

Worst case I could contrive without villains holding a better made hand is :kc: :6c: vs :9d: :6d: vs :th: :ts: vs hero's middle set gives Hero 46% equity in a four way pot. The villains only hold two of each others outs, the sixes use up one of hero's redraws and the pocket tens kill all of the tens as a redraw. So Hero has to dodge, the club draw, all four straight draws, a runner runner diamond draw and the rare chance bottom set turns into quads. And still hero has 46% equity after putting in 25% of the money even in this contrived case.

<shrug> I would take that deal. The variance would be significant but in the end Hero is going average winning close to half of all the money and putting in far less.

Do not get me wrong - the shove is a lower variance play. But it has a lower expected value than a properly sized value bet.

DrStrange
 
I love these discussions and normally pick up something reading these.

I think this thread though had everything suggested except IMO the correct move...so my play would be this:

Stand-up (very important here) JAM post flop, while yelling and grabbing your crotch "I HOPE YOU'RE READY TO SEE THESE NUTS BITCHES!"

No?
 
Great analyses by Rainman and the good Dr. I appreciate the feedback and am glad the thread turned around. Thanks again.
 

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