Taking this at face value, I think that most new, recreational, $100 buy-in players that have to pay $50 or $60 after a long session for time, would likely play once, and walk away not willing to try again.
The more I read this thread, the more I question the viability of the concept extending beyond the existing rooms in Texas.
It's certainly not going to be for all of them. But, the median household income here in Austin is over 85K and there are some good paying jobs in this area, a significant tech corridor and new businesses making their way into Austin and people moving in from out of state, so we're in a pretty strong growth phase as far as population goes.
There are plenty of people in this market who can afford the entertainment budget to play some cash games or tournaments without having the fees to play being a deterrent.
I'd love to be able to do a traditional rake so it's not "felt" as much by the players (and it's more profitable from a room operator standpoint) but unfortunately the framework of the law is what it is and I don't want to do anything to circumvent that.
Btw,
@Anthony Martino , are you still playing PLO professionally?
I'm still playing, but the game at the lodge is an interesting beast. It's 1/2 with a $5 bring-in and then unlimited restraddles from UTG (can get up to $320 and I've seen it) and match the stack (buyins begin at 200-1K but I've legit seen people sitting 20-30K deep in this thing).
So sometimes multiple games running will be full of grinders and the only way to profit is to cooler someone. Or, it's batshit insane with 6-way all-ins preflop for 1K+ stacks (players in Texas suffer from FOMO, big pot brewing, they can't stand to miss it so they're putting it in with Q653 suited to their 5 in clubs). Because equities run so close preflop in PLO, if you're getting stacks in pre, even with a premium holding, 6-ways is rough to win. While you may win some battles and the pots can be big, overall it's hard to win the war if you don't have the deepest pockets.
So I've been forced to short-buy more of those games and employ Rolf Slotbooms strategy to leverage larger stacks against one another. I've also started playing a bit at TCH where they have a game that's 1 round of NLH and two rounds of $5 bomb pots. I love bomb pots because EVERYONE sees the flop. So now the over-aggro players and the strong pros are handcuffed, it's hard to bluff into a full table that's seen the two boards come out. But there are still players that will stack off light and they're guaranteed to see the flops where they might get pushed out in a traditional blind game.
It's actually the hold em that's proven frustrating. Mostly because people are DESPERATELY trying to give me their fucking money but find miracles to get away from ruin.
KK vs TT all-in pre and we run twice and she spikes a two-outer to chop
Guy raises to 15, I make it 45 with red Queens, guy in the SB cold-calls both raises (so either trapping AA/KK or he's got a weaker hand that he just doesn't feel he can let go of), original raiser calls and we see a flop of 542 with two hearts and one diamond. SB donks like 15 bucks and I rip it in, he calls. I say "twice is nice" and he doesn't respond verbally, just holds up one finger to run it once. Turn T, river 6 and he turns over.................TT and two-outers me for stacks, le sigh
I raise KK UTG, multiple callers, kid in the BB shoves a short stack of $68 and I reraise to iso. We agree to run twice and thank fucking god because this knucklehead tells me he was "trying to go home" and turns over........95 offsuit...........and manages to make two pair on the first board.
Tonight there's a raise from the HJ to 10, button calls, I defend BB with A7 of spades. Flop A74 two diamonds. I check, original raiser bets 15, button folds, I fucking rip it for over $300 cause I know these idiots can't help themselves. He calls, we agree to run twice (again, thank fucking god) because he's called off over $300 into a pot that had $45 in it with AJ and spikes the three-outer on the first turn to chop it up.
These guys are just trying to hand me their money but get bailed out over and over.
Fortunately tonight I managed a pretty big cooler where I had KK vs QQ vs JJ all-in pre and ran twice and someone did not get fucked and managed to scoop, which felt pretty good. Lady with QQ was shorter-stacked unfortunately but I'll take the win.
I got a similar vibe. I also wonder how healthy the current player pool is at the existing rooms. Growing? Shrinking?
I'd say the Lodge is pretty steady at their 15-20 cash games/day plus their solid tournament scene. things are slower with the WSOP running right now and a lot of folks out of town.
TCH seems to have gotten a bit busier recently, but overall I haven't found their player pool all that profitable yet so I'm mostly back to the lodge.
Card rooms are like restaurants. Sexy and good on paper. Very hard to manage in reality and the best ones make all the profit.
I spend summers in a beach town in Delaware and the restaurant turnover is really high. People pour their hopes and dreams into well thought out concepts that either don’t land or are not well executed. So many places are gone after one or two years.
Hiring is hard.
Fraud is rampant.
Location matters. A TON.
Successful spots get bought up by bigger chains that can leverage overhead and spend to drive profitability.
You can have fun or make money, but rarely both. Playing in a competitive market is like sitting down at a poker table full of pros. You might get lucky, but probably not. Usually best to choose a less competitive venture.
Unless your concept is right and can execute.
Case in point: watch galfonds documentary about how he lost $10 million trying to launch run it once poker site. And that guy is a genious who works hard and had a great concept.
Fair points, I know the restaurant business is one of the hardest to find success in. I firmly believe there's a significant untapped local market that doesn't realize poker even exists out here, it's mostly the poker enthusiasts that are aware.
I agree that location is big as well. Some of these places have terrible parking situations (the lodge being one of them) and I don't believe any of them have road signage/frontage which is a significant weakness.
As far as Galfond, the run it once was a poker training site I believe? Poker is a niche with a specific audience to target, but then poker training sites are drilling down to a much smaller demographic within that niche.
It's kinda like trying to market to 100/200 NLH players when they're a much smaller demographic than 1/2 and they want special treatment, personal hosts, free food, etc. but they're paying you the same fees the low stakes players are. why bother with the headache of trying to reach those high-stakes players (which also makes your room a likelier target for players being robbed, which did happen outside the lodge) when you can cater to a larger, less-persnikity audience of recreational lower stakes players?)
I'll shoot you a PM with some of my ideas for growing this thing, just don't want to post it publicly.