When I do the maths, an opponent hitting/holding the case card is more likely than you might think.
4:42 or 4:43, basically a 1:10 chance. I'm happy to be taught otherwise, because I don't do arithmetic and I'm lousy at Omaha, but on the surface that is what I get.
The thing is, given how solid he had played, I didn't expect him to be raising Queens preflop
Anyway, just got home, -$100 on the session. Up a little and down a little throughout
Had AA77 on a K74 flush draw flop and guy without the flush draw chased his straight, whiffed turn but called it off and binked river to double through me
Later in the session 5-handed I straddle button to $5 for my first time all session. Only SB calls, I pot with
Flop
He checks, I check behind.
Turn
He checks, I pot, he calls.
River
He pots into me for $165
I call, he has
for the double gutter that got there
I double through him shortly after with AK84 in the SB, he raises from BB cause he just can't help himself, one limp caller and I call
Flop A42 and I pot it, he calls, I put the rest in as the turn peels another 4. He calls, river is an Ace and we double
But shortly after that my sciatic pain was flaring pretty bad. Wanted to keep playing but had to pack it in