don’t worry, i think i cover youBlack chips out front please sir
don’t worry, i think i cover youBlack chips out front please sir
Was this a chatgpt analysis? The shove is a no brainer and the call is probably too lose. Your shoving range is likely going to be tighter than most solves recommend and even the solves would have him folding something like A8o or worse.Friday night was an unexpected banger. Our group chat was worried about making a game due to the weather we've had all week. No problem as we nearly had to do a 3rd table (19 players).
It was steak night at the lodge but I brought sushi.
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This pot was in the first level 100/200 and got even bigger (chopped straight).
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Chipping up with 12 left.
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Final table !
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And stone bubble when my JJ < A6o . . .
@Taghkanic AI says I played it right (& they played it wrong) lol:
Hand Details:
- Hero (Big Blind): J♥J♦, 8bb stack.
- UTG: Raises to 2.5bb with A♦6♣, 30bb stack.
- Action: Hero shoves 8bb; UTG calls.
Analysis:
Hero's Shove (Correct Play)
- Pocket Jacks are extremely strong in this situation with only 8bb left. Shoving is the correct move for the following reasons:
- Stack Size: With such a short stack, you need to take aggressive actions with premium hands. Waiting risks being blinded out or forced into marginal spots.
- Bubble Dynamics: On the bubble, opponents are often more cautious about risking their stacks. UTG’s open might include hands they fold to a shove, giving you fold equity.
- Equity Against Calling Ranges:
- Against a loose calling range (e.g., Ax, broadways, small pairs), J♥J♦ is well ahead.
- Versus A♦6♣, you have ~70% equity preflop. Even against stronger ranges like AQ+,TT+AQ+, TT+, your hand still holds up well.
UTG’s Raise and Call
- The Raise:
- Opening A♦6♣ UTG with 30bb is too loose, especially on the bubble. UTG's range should be tighter due to the ICM pressure they apply to the shorter stacks. A balanced UTG range might include:
- Premium pairs (QQ+QQ+).
- Strong broadway hands (AQ+AQ+, KQsKQs).
- Medium pairs (77+77+).
- A♦6♣ is not strong enough to profitably open in this spot. It risks domination or difficult postflop spots.
- The Call:
- Calling the shove with A♦6♣ is questionable:
- Risk to Stack: They risk losing ~30% of their stack (8bb of 30bb) to double up a short stack on the bubble.
- Domination: A♦6♣ performs poorly against your likely shoving range (pairs, strong broadways, and some suited Ax hands).
- ICM Implications: Busting you doesn’t benefit them much since they are already comfortable in chips, and the risk of doubling you up outweighs the reward.
Equity Breakdown
- J♥J♦ vs. A♦6♣: 70% (Hero) vs. 30% (Villain).
- Your shove is +EV even if UTG calls with a relatively wide range, such as Ax and broadways.
Bubble Dynamics:
- Hero’s Perspective:
- With 8bb, you are in a high-pressure situation where survival and doubling up are critical. J♥J♦ is a near-nut hand to shove with.
- Folding here would be a mistake, as you’d blind down further without a likely better spot.
- UTG’s Perspective:
- They should avoid marginal hands like A♦6♣ on the bubble. If they fold to your shove, they still maintain a healthy stack and avoid giving you a chance to double up.
- The correct strategy would be to open a tighter range or fold to your shove unless holding hands that dominate your shoving range (e.g., AQ+AQ+, TT+TT+).
Key Lessons:
- Hero: Shoving with J♥J♦ is the correct and profitable play. In short-stack scenarios, prioritizing aggression with premium hands is vital.
- UTG: Calling with A♦6♣ is a strategic error near the bubble. Risking chips to take out a short stack with a marginal hand doesn’t align with proper ICM considerations.
Until next time, Cheers
If you keep winning like this you're gonna get more leg injuries!Not played for 1 year because of serious legs injuries, I started again (and chipping) with the holiday season games at friend's house.
I'm also looking forward to hosting games again!
12.30.2024 - 0,5/1fr game at a neighbor's house:
In: 70fr
Out: 370fr
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01.03.2025 - 0,5/1fr game at a buddy's house who has a "Silver Knight" themed CPC poker chips set and a matching table:
In: 200fr
Out: 270fr
01.04.2025 - 0,5/1fr game at the Silver Knight table:
In: 200fr
Out: 410fr
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01.11.2025 - 0,5/1fr game at the Silver Knight table:
In: 150fr
Out: 660fr
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The love for $2, $10, $50 chips in a 0.5-1-2-5-10-50 stack's structure is tenacious in Europe...
Not the legs! Not the legs!If you keep winning like this you're gonna get more leg injuries!
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Indeed, I run very good. I think it's the Game that wants to get me back to him, or a lucky tank story that was full haha.If you keep winning like this you're gonna get more leg injuries!
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Nice tourney stack!
He actually got called out earlier, this was the end of the night when he was mostly counting his massive stack, everyone knew how much he had…Black chips out front please sir
hahaha if Craig was there, he’d probably buy in 10 k just to say “not anymore”don’t worry, i think i cover you
If only there were someone who could help me with the wrong $500s issue . . .$500s mid
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Would he be open to selling a sample set of these? Much much appreciation if you’d be willing to ask.Not played for 1 year because of serious legs injuries, I started again (and chipping) with the holiday season games at friend's house.
I'm also looking forward to hosting games again!
12.30.2024 - 0,5/1fr game at a neighbor's house:
In: 70fr
Out: 370fr
View attachment 1445768
View attachment 1445769
01.03.2025 - 0,5/1fr game at a buddy's house who has a "Silver Knight" themed CPC poker chips set and a matching table:
In: 200fr
Out: 270fr
01.04.2025 - 0,5/1fr game at the Silver Knight table:
In: 200fr
Out: 410fr
View attachment 1445770
View attachment 1445771
01.11.2025 - 0,5/1fr game at the Silver Knight table:
In: 150fr
Out: 660fr
View attachment 1445772
View attachment 1445773
The love for $2, $10, $50 chips in a 0.5-1-2-5-10-50 stack's structure is tenacious in Europe...
Should be possible, as he thinks he may be expanding his set before the end of CPC. I'm going to ask.Would he be open to selling a sample set of these? Much much appreciation if you’d be willing to ask.