Friday nights game had a low turnout, 9 players, congratulations us for making the final table lol.
Chipping up a little at a time.
Been seeing a bunch of these . . . Ugh!
A bit more chipping up. We're 6 handed now, only 3 paid.
Finally ca$hed in 3rd (and collected high hand bonus), a pre flop shove wouldn't have worked on Curly but hate his post flop shove call. . .
Until next week!
Tournament Hand Breakdown: 4 Players Left (Bubble Pressure is High)
Key Details:
- Blinds: 5000/10000
- Players Remaining: 4 (3 get paid, so high ICM pressure)
- Hero (Button): A♥Q♠, 120,000 chips (12bb)
- Villain (Small Blind): A♣J♦, 150,000 chips (15bb)
- Preflop Action:
- Hero raises to 2.5bb (25,000).
- Villain calls.
- Flop:2♥5♦7♠
- Villain checks.
- Hero shoves 95,000 (remaining stack).
- Villain calls.
Preflop Analysis
Hero’s Preflop Raise (Mistake – Should Shove)
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Best Move: Shove all-in for 12bb instead of raising to 2.5bb.
Why?
- With 12bb, a raise-fold strategy is not viable.
- Shoving maximizes fold equity and prevents opponents from realizing their equity.
- ICM Pressure: A shove forces medium stacks to make a tough decision, avoiding awkward postflop situations.
- By raising instead of shoving, you allow your opponents to see a flop and play optimally against you.
Problem: Your 2.5bb raise gives Villain an easy call. Now you must play postflop with only 9.5bb behind.
Flop Analysis
Flop: 2♥5♦7♠ (Low, Dry Board)
- Villain checks.
- Hero shoves 95,000.
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Hero’s Shove (Correct Play Given the Situation)
Why?
- Your only option is to shove because checking would leave you with just 9.5bb and force a difficult turn decision.
- Your shove leverages fold equity against Villain’s non-pair hands (e.g., KQ, QJ, J10).
- You have two overcards, and some Villains might fold small pocket pairs if they are feeling ICM pressure.
Problem: If Villain has any pair (22-77, 88+), they are never folding.
Villain’s Perspective & Response
- Villain has A♣J♦ on a board of 2♥5♦7♠.
- Villain should fold.
- Hero’s shove represents strength.
- Villain is behind against Hero’s value hands (e.g., 88+, strong Ax hands).
- Villain doesn’t have a pair or backdoor draws.
Calling with A♣J♦ is a mistake.
- Villain has no pair and is only ahead of bluffs.
- Bubble pressure means Villain should avoid big-risk spots.
Final Thoughts & Takeaways
✔ Hero should have shoved preflop instead of raising.
✔ Postflop, Hero’s shove is correct, but it’s a tough spot.
✔ Villain should fold A♣J♦ and preserve their stack.
✔ ICM pressure makes aggression more valuable than passive play.
Better Play for Hero:
- Preflop: Just shove 12bb all-in instead of raising.
- Postflop: If you raise preflop, you have no choice but to shove this board.