PAHWM - 1/3 200+bb deep w/ AKs (1 Viewer)

[Legend5555]

Again, the only 2 pair that makes sense here is QJ because anything else is going to play stronger on the turn when checked around. It can't be a set because JJ folds to your check-raise and 444 or 555 don't want to see the river. It's definitely weird for you to have a flush here, which is why they don't have a flush–there's only one other plausible combo. So your best chance at any value is a weak K.

While everyone else is dismissing the $25 bet, I think that's the whole story. It's kind of a situation where it's hard to understand so it's easy to ignore. But it is a big part of the action in the hand because he could have closed the action on the turn with a check but instead decided to put in that small bet, pricing in every draw and opening himself to a check-raise.

I just don't see any reasonable K or better betting that small there. He's got to have a hand that he thinks just might win right now but can call vs a check-raise. So that's either a small king, a nut-flush draw, a combo draw, or a flush draw with a pair (that means his draw are AXh, QJh, QTh, JTh, or T9h). Then with the Js river the only hands that can even think about calling a jam are QJh or T9h.

Maybe we disagree but I just don't see how he gets to the river with KQ or KJ as played. Same with K5, K4, Q5, Q4 if you think those are possibly in his range. None of those hands put out that tiny bet because it only makes sense to check or bet big. Honestly, I really don't even see any of those K hands putting out that bet. So it has to narrow it down to the heart draws plus the T9s combo draw.

Again, I'm hoping to learn that I'm wrong (because then I'm learning) but what I keep coming to is that the only hand he could possibly have as played is AXh. And there are only a few others that he could have had at the river.

Thanks all.

I disagree, I think KQ makes some sense, though I generally agree it might bet more on turn. But I think KJ makes a lot of sense. And while a set is a bit unlikely, I don't put it past anyone in this game to play it weirdly. Though, it's less common than the 2 pair.

T9hh, T9ss, and AThh also make sense and are never folding river. I don't think I get called by 1 pair unless it's specifically AK (which players on this game are VERY capable of having since most of them don't 3 bet it). I think KT folds river unless I go really small, and I think even AQhh is going to fold. So I don't think there is enough 1 pair stuff to get value from.

 

[Burke]

OK, I was with @stefalopod about the small bet at the end but after reading and thinking through @grebe @Legend5555 @Marc Hedrick the move is definitely a shove to get value from 2-pair and better hands rather than attempting to induce a bluff

 

[perfectjawnz]

As played, I do agree with shoving here, but I think the hand plays a lot cleaner if you raise slightly bigger OTT. Before your raise, pot is 230, and you're only raising an extra $100 - odds are amazing for the BU. If your raise was closer to 200, you'd have a pot sized bet left OTR, as well as your line making more sense bluff or value wise. you should basically be showing up with the nuts or nothing here if you're going to x/r vs 2 OTT OOP, else I think it's much better to just call.

 

[stefalopod]

We definitely disagree on the amount of two pair that villain can show up with, as well as the amount of money they may be willing to call down river with -- as again, the most obvious draw misses.

We also disagree on the meaning of the $25 bet. To me, it is a check. It's an irrelevant annoyance. It accomplishes nothing. But, maybe I can learn why I'm wrong on this one.

Happy to disagree!

The thing that makes the bet important is that he's on the button so an actual check closes the action on the turn, while this one opens the action. Is it an annoying size to figure out? Yeah for sure.

I've explained my thinking above so even a verbose individual like me can avoid repeating myself. I just don't see how a made hand makes that bet unless it's a small K. I'm really interested in understanding why KQ or KJ would make that bet and just call. I think I've explained why I don't think so (though it's up to the reader to determine the plausibility of my thought). I don't understand why it wouldn't be bigger. Maybe you recognize the guy and he doesn't like putting chips in the pot when he doesn't have to so he thinks a 1/7-pot bet will get it done.

I totally agree with @perfectjawnz about the sizing. I think all the sizing on the turn is too small, from the $25 bet to the check-raise. You were giving a flush draw pretty great odds to stay in. If your sizing is $200 + there then it really is a push spot.

I've tried to look at the hand from the button's perspective and just don't see how he would play KJ like that. I can't imagine him playing KQ like that.

I can see reasons to push no matter what but I don't think it's getting called by anything but the few QJ, AT, and T9 hands that river 2-pair+. There are more KXs combos that could make a plausible-ish story for this line. So if you want to bet for thin value then it's a baby bet. But honestly, you already did probably get the most value out of the hand and were fortunate he didn't hit a heart. All of these keystrokes and everyone seems to agree the dude had a heart draw. Ha, move on @stefalopod.

 

[Legend5555]

Happy to disagree!

The thing that makes the bet important is that he's on the button so an actual check closes the action on the turn, while this one opens the action. Is it an annoying size to figure out? Yeah for sure.

I've explained my thinking above so even a verbose individual like me can avoid repeating myself. I just don't see how a made hand makes that bet unless it's a small K. I'm really interested in understanding why KQ or KJ would make that bet and just call. I think I've explained why I don't think so (though it's up to the reader to determine the plausibility of my thought). I don't understand why it wouldn't be bigger. Maybe you recognize the guy and he doesn't like putting chips in the pot when he doesn't have to so he thinks a 1/7-pot bet will get it done.

I totally agree with @perfectjawnz about the sizing. I think all the sizing on the turn is too small, from the $25 bet to the check-raise. You were giving a flush draw pretty great odds to stay in. If your sizing is $200 + there then it really is a push spot.

I've tried to look at the hand from the button's perspective and just don't see how he would play KJ like that. I can't imagine him playing KQ like that.

I can see reasons to push no matter what but I don't think it's getting called by anything but the few QJ, AT, and T9 hands that river 2-pair+. There are more KXs combos that could make a plausible-ish story for this line. So if you want to bet for thin value then it's a baby bet. But honestly, you already did probably get the most value out of the hand and were fortunate he didn't hit a heart. All of these keystrokes and everyone seems to agree the dude had a heart draw. Ha, move on @stefalopod.

I don't think you really get how people that make tiny bets into large pots play. These are NOT thinking players. You are way over analyzing what a player like this is thinking.