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PAHWM - 1/3 200+bb deep w/ AKs (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Legend5555
- Start date
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Boy I just don't know, the raise on the turn wasn't huge, so Button could still be very wide here. I think I'll joint the course for $150, you are then laying the caller 3:1, maybe that gets you good with one pair. And it's also a smaller size where you might be comfortable with a bluff in this spot. Best case is villain made a straight or a smaller flush and decided to put you to the test if you have two pair or trips.
With that last card, what is calling a bet? I don't think he is calling with any one-pair and wouldn't bother targeting those hands. I already eliminated KQ and 44 from his possible holdings. He can put you on KK, QQ, AK, KQ, ?AA pretty easily. Hard for him to put you on the nuts with the backdoor flush, although he should consider it with raise on the turn.
I think you have to hope that villain has A10hh or QJhh to get value? Still don't understand his turn bet of $25 followed by a flat. I don't expect to get a lot of value. I think I bet low like $100 and hope that induces a bluff-raise all-in since there is a lot in your range that could be scared off by that river.
Edit: I don't think I realized this whole time that pot was 4-ways rather than 3-ways, but whatever
I think you have to hope that villain has A10hh or QJhh to get value? Still don't understand his turn bet of $25 followed by a flat. I don't expect to get a lot of value. I think I bet low like $100 and hope that induces a bluff-raise all-in since there is a lot in your range that could be scared off by that river.
Edit: I don't think I realized this whole time that pot was 4-ways rather than 3-ways, but whatever
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stefalopod
High Hand
Agree mostly. Could be wrong but likely holdings at this point are QJh, KJ, JT, heart draw (hope it’s ATh or 98h!). Ideal hand vs hero is JsTs but now that’s not possible. Could villain be playing this way with AA or a set? What hands would villain call any bet with here? KJ, QJh, ATh, 98h. Could he be here with AK? Maybe, as OP said this guy is pretty passive and doesn’t like to raise preflop. What if he was married to a big pair and hung around with JJ? Dream. Most hands just fold. Bet a quarter pot for value, hope he raises, then shove. Have fun stacking those chips!
That tiny bet on the turn and then calling screams draw to me. I'd jam and hope he also made the flush or a straight. Maybe you end up folding out sets, but I don't see many as played. Seems like either a missed draw/weak hand that can't call much anyway.
trever
Flush
I'm tempted to get way too fancy and check. So much of his range is going to be a missed draw that the only way to get more out of him is to let him bluff.
Dugthefish
3 of a Kind
All in
grebe
Full House
This is a blocker bet and a call. HERO is good a vast majority of the time here. Raise! I make it $150 expecting calls from hands like JT, or worse flushes... Even worse Kx hands in a good game. Lots of draws out there now with wheel draws coming in too, plus two flush draws.Part 3
Game is my now usual 1/3 game. 500 max buy in.
Villain of this hand is an unknown to me. He has not been very noteworthy one way or the other. I would characterize him as a typical rec that limps too much, doesn't raise often enough pre flop, a bit stationy post flop, but also is capable of finding some folds. Not really seen many showdowns from him.
BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.
Effective stack: $750
I raise UTG to 15 with
+2 calls.
B (Villain) calls.
BB calls.
Pot: 60
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:
BB checks.
HERO bets $30
+2 calls.
B calls.
BB calls.
Pot: 180
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:
BB checks.
HERO checks.
+2 checks.
B bets $25.
BB calls.
HERO?
grebe
Full House
All of it. No other size.Part 4
Game is my now usual 1/3 game. 500 max buy in.
Villain of this hand is an unknown to me. He has not been very noteworthy one way or the other. I would characterize him as a typical rec that limps too much, doesn't raise often enough pre flop, a bit stationy post flop, but also is capable of finding some folds. Not really seen many showdowns from him.
BB is also involved. He plays 6 days a week. Is a bit more knowledgeable, but still overall a fairly typical rec. I did see him fold JJ as an overpair on 763 to a single check raise.
Effective stack: $750
I raise UTG to 15 with
+2 calls.
B (Villain) calls.
BB calls.
Pot: 60
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:
BB checks.
HERO bets $30
+2 calls.
B calls.
BB calls.
Pot: 180
Eff Stack: 735
Flop:
BB checks.
HERO checks.
+2 checks.
B bets $25.
BB calls.
HERO raises to $125.
B calls.
BB folds.
Pot: 455
Eff Stack: 610
Flop:
HERO sizing?
If he was drawing to hearts, he calls no bet. If he has a flush or a set he pays you off. Trying to target a single pair hand doesn't seem like a good bet. Put him in the blender.
Kain8
Flush
grebe
Full House
Legend is a good player....he recognizes there is too much value to be had to not shove, so he shoves and gets snap called by KQ or KJ. (I was looking for a good spade flush draw, but I couldnt find one.....KQs? nope...JTs? nope. A5s? nope. well, shit.)
Nope - BTN folds, BB snap calls and shows him
for the rivered straight flush. Hero did nothing wrong in jamming the river. It's just a bad beat, sometimes Villain shows up with an extra hole card and there's nothing you can do. 
Kidding aside, I agree this is a clear jam. The overbet polarizes your hand, and you'll find a lot of calls from straights, sets, some smaller flushes, and many 2P. Missed hearts are folding to any bet, and 1P hands are usually folding as well, so you're losing value by targeting them. (Still, from the right kind of villain, you might even get an occasional one pair hero call.)
Swing for the fences.
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grebe
Full House
Legend told me about this game. I wouldn't be shocked to see a jam and a call from like K4.Nope - BTN folds, BB snap calls and shows him
Kidding aside, I agree this is a clear jam. The overbet polarizes your hand, and you'll find a lot of calls from straights, sets, some smaller flushes, and many 2P. Missed hearts are folding to any bet, and 1P hands are usually folding as well, so you're losing value by targeting them. (Still, from the right kind of villain, you might even get an occasional one pair hero call.)
Swing for the fences.
Also, I didn't consider the guy with three holes cards here, please disregard my post!
OP
OP
Legend5555
Full House
Conclusion
HERO does not go for it all, but goes $350. Which is still large enough for good value.
Villain folds.
I really wasn't sure what the hell he had. I checked turn because we are 4 ways I didn't want to get blown off my equity. But when the small bet and just call happened, I figured I probably did have the best hand and wanted to charge other draws. But not too big as most of these players don't look at bets on relation to the pot, just as sizes. So I'm just trying to get called by 2 pair, straight, or worse flush. I don't think he has much 1 pair the way this went down. They're bad, but they know I'm not screwing around a ton. And they don't often just hang onto 1 pair. Though they WILL over value 2 pair+.
HERO does not go for it all, but goes $350. Which is still large enough for good value.
Villain folds.
I really wasn't sure what the hell he had. I checked turn because we are 4 ways I didn't want to get blown off my equity. But when the small bet and just call happened, I figured I probably did have the best hand and wanted to charge other draws. But not too big as most of these players don't look at bets on relation to the pot, just as sizes. So I'm just trying to get called by 2 pair, straight, or worse flush. I don't think he has much 1 pair the way this went down. They're bad, but they know I'm not screwing around a ton. And they don't often just hang onto 1 pair. Though they WILL over value 2 pair+.
grebe
Full House
Hearts missed, he probably wasn't calling anything. If he called and showed a small flush, straight or set, I would look at the effective remaining stack and make a mental note that I missed that much value.
It's impossible to say how your specific player pool would look at this bet sizing compared to a shove (or if they even think about it that deeply). Absent that type of information, I think a bet of $350 looks like a pure value bet to most players, where a shove can often look like missed hearts trying to take it down or one pair that knows he's no good by the river.
Lots of low stakes and/or recreational players think they way you say these guys do, and are going to see an overbet shove a little differently. They're not thinking overbet, they're thinking "damn, that's a $610 shove!" But if they also overvalue 2P+, I still think a shove gets calls and folds from mostly the same ranges of hands, but gets you an extra $250 those times when you do get called.
There's a fuzzy, player-dependent area where $350 gets calls and $610 gets folds, but there's a similar player-dependent area where $350 gets folds (looks like a pure value bet) and $610 gets some calls (because it's a polarizing bet).
OP
OP
Legend5555
Full House
It's hard to know. I had never played with this specific guy. And I've made some overbet jams against other players and just never get paid. So I tried for a "biggish" bet that was not his whole stack.
Yeah, it's player dependent for sure, so not having much history makes it a tougher call.
Then you aren't overbet bluffing enough, or your players don't know that you are capable of this kind of bluff.
Do it once and show it. Your players will never forget, and you'll find that your overbets for value start getting called a lot more.
Marc Hedrick
3 of a Kind
Jeez I thought I was nuts reading all these $100-150 responses. Glad someone got to it before me but the only sizing is jam, whether its a flush or a bluff.
OP
OP
Legend5555
Full House
I haven't been playing in the hand long enough for enough opportunities for the exact spot to come up. Only the 3rd out 4th opportunity in 40+ hours to do it.
Also not a game where I don't need to be bluffing that much.
You don't need to bluff a lot - you just want them to know that you're capable of it.
The game becomes really easy for them if your river overbet is the nuts every time. Sow some doubt.
OP
OP
Legend5555
Full House
Not my style to ever show my hand unless I have to. Just because they've never seen me overbet bluff a river, doesn't mean I haven't bluffed rivers. I do a lot of flop and turn "bluffing." And most of these people don't understand the difference between that and river bluffs. I'm not interested in playing higher variance against these weak players to eek out an extra few bucks an hour. Plenty of easier spots. I save those plays for online and people that can hand read.You don't need to bluff a lot - you just want them to know that you're capable of it.
The game becomes really easy for them if your river overbet is the nuts every time. Sow some doubt.
stefalopod
High Hand
I still vehemently disagree. Who possibly calls a jam here? 2 pair? There's clearly no 2-pair in the hand. Another runner-runner flush? Odds don't seem right for that. There's just no way that hearts don't hit and someone calls a jam in this hand. So if you want to extract the maximum you absolutely have to value bet a weaker king or maybe a queen. You can swing for the fences and hope someone calls but a value bet is going to have much better EV than a jam here. That said, both bets are probably going to fold out the heart draw anyway so it doesn't matter.
Could turning a Queen spade draw could have induced the $25 bet? Maybe. But that's pushing it.
Maybe if you want to have a polarized image of "everything or nothing" then ok (but that makes more sense in a bigger game and les in $1-3). But the only possible calling hand is a queen-flush. And that probably jams on your $150ish bet, doing your job for you.
Would love to understand why I'm wrong because then I'll be a better player.
Marc Hedrick
3 of a Kind
I think you are wrong about villian's range. There are three broadway cards on the board in a single raised pot. There is a LOT of two pair, straights, even maybe sets that will find a call here with the most obvious draw missing.
Can you explain your thought process as to why there is clearly no two pair in this hand?
stefalopod
High Hand
OK, I acknowledge that I misread the action so I had eliminated QJo.
But to me, the whole story of the hand is that $25 bet. Because it's on the button so it can't be a blocker. For some reason I had been thinking he was early to act on the turn, not late. It has to be a stab at the pot OR an attempt to build the pot on your draw.
If he were early to act then I take away every QJ except for QJh. But since he's on the button I think he can have it. I do think he folds QJ to the check-raise most of the time but he holds onto it enough that you could maybe target that hand with a river jam.
I don't see KJ because then the turn bet is much stronger than $25. If he's KQ then he re-raises you on the turn, probably jams. So he can't have Kings up.
Could he have spades? What spades call the flop? T9s has a gutshot and a runner draw so maybe. All the spade paint is accounted for so no other spade hands get past the river bet.
T9o shouldn't call a check-raise on the turn. Or be in the hand.
How about a weak suited K? Something like K8c or K6d? That's what you'd target with a small bet. Frequent limpers on the button could absolutely have this. Could he have called 4-way preflop with an offsuit weak K? I don't think so. So give him every KT and suited K9-K6. That's 26 combos. 29 if you want to give him K9o but I'm cutting that out.
But the only hands I can see this guy holding on the river that would call anything but a small bet are QJ, ATh, T9h, T9s. That's still just 9 combos. And I'll take out 3 combos because I see him folding out some QJ hands to the check-raise on the turn. So you're left with 6 combos.
But the most likely hand as played (by far) is an A-high heart draw. When the table checks around on the turn, I can see someone thinking the Ah could be good already and putting in a small bet. Then he calls the raise with his hearts.
Even now that I can see 2-pair hitting (with QJ exactly), I still see more EV in a small bet. If he's on one pair he might call small but wouldn't call a jam. If he's got 2-pair he probably just calls small but might raise (and even if that's not a jam, it is effectively one because he's priced into calling the whole stack). If he's got a straight or better there's a good chance he jams on you right now.
Of course that's just this hand. If this is your regular game, there's the whole other aspect to how you play it for table image. I just don't think it makes sense here.
OP
OP
Legend5555
Full House
This was kind of my thought on this. He either has busted hearts or 2 pair+ and only rarely a 1 pair hand. I didn't know much about his river calling tendencies, and I though 1 pair is unlikely enough, and it's pretty weird for me to have a flush as played, that going for more value seemed correct. And I thought a jam would actually get him to fold 2 pair as in general rec players don't like felting when they started a hand deep.
stefalopod
High Hand
Again, the only 2 pair that makes sense here is QJ because anything else is going to play stronger on the turn when checked around. It can't be a set because JJ folds to your check-raise and 444 or 555 don't want to see the river. It's definitely weird for you to have a flush here, which is why they don't have a flush–there's only one other plausible combo. So your best chance at any value is a weak K.
While everyone else is dismissing the $25 bet, I think that's the whole story. It's kind of a situation where it's hard to understand so it's easy to ignore. But it is a big part of the action in the hand because he could have closed the action on the turn with a check but instead decided to put in that small bet, pricing in every draw and opening himself to a check-raise.
I just don't see any reasonable K or better betting that small there. He's got to have a hand that he thinks just might win right now but can call vs a check-raise. So that's either a small king, a nut-flush draw, a combo draw, or a flush draw with a pair (that means his draw are AXh, QJh, QTh, JTh, or T9h). Then with the Js river the only hands that can even think about calling a jam are QJh or T9h.
Maybe we disagree but I just don't see how he gets to the river with KQ or KJ as played. Same with K5, K4, Q5, Q4 if you think those are possibly in his range. None of those hands put out that tiny bet because it only makes sense to check or bet big. Honestly, I really don't even see any of those K hands putting out that bet. So it has to narrow it down to the heart draws plus the T9s combo draw.
Again, I'm hoping to learn that I'm wrong (because then I'm learning) but what I keep coming to is that the only hand he could possibly have as played is AXh. And there are only a few others that he could have had at the river.
Thanks all.
Marc Hedrick
3 of a Kind
We definitely disagree on the amount of two pair that villain can show up with, as well as the amount of money they may be willing to call down river with -- as again, the most obvious draw misses.
We also disagree on the meaning of the $25 bet. To me, it is a check. It's an irrelevant annoyance. It accomplishes nothing. But, maybe I can learn why I'm wrong on this one.
We also disagree on the meaning of the $25 bet. To me, it is a check. It's an irrelevant annoyance. It accomplishes nothing. But, maybe I can learn why I'm wrong on this one.
Marc Hedrick
3 of a Kind
I am not saying the two pair combos played their hand well, by the way. I just think there are a lot of them, and even straights now, in a possible range.
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