Satellite tourney hand (1 Viewer)

[<°)))><)]

Hi folks,

I rarely post hand strategy, but this one has been in my head all day long.

You're at a Live rebuy satellite tournament held in the best Parisian cardroom still opened.

It's a 110€ buy-in (with rebuys) qualifier for a big 1200€ tourney with a guaranted 500k€ prize pool.
46 players entered, and at the end of the rebuys, the prizepool is 8 tickets.

There are 21 players left. One more to go and the two final tables are set. 13 will leave with nothing and the other 8 take their price. No extra money to be made.

The average stack is at 29k

Presently you are 7-handed at one of the last 3 tables.
You and two others guys have short stacked with just 10-15k. The three other players have decent stacks (50k+). A 7th guy is on his way from another table.

The new 20 minutes round just begun.
Blinds are 1000-2000 with a 400 ante, making it 5800 in each starting pot. It's also how much you need to post every 7 hand around.

The 7th player arrives with also a small stack (19k). As he sits down just to your right, you are racking a pot: you just made an all-in move with your micro stack and got lucky. You still have only 15k.

One unsignificant hand unfolds as an early raiser takes it down. You dont know the new player, but you just notice, by his table manners during those two first minutes, that he is at ease and has played enough tournaments to know what's at stake

On the next hand you are in the big blind and post your 2000+400, living you with 12500. The stranger is the SB.

Everyone folds to the stranger in the SB, who bets a mini raise of 4300. He just covers you with 15500. There's 7100 in the pot.
You open your cards: 6s4s.

What's your play?

***
I'll let you discuss for a while before I'll give new info.

 

[Mr Tree]

Hi folks,

I rarely post hand strategy, but this one has been in my head all day long.

You're at a Live rebuy satellite tournament held in the best Parisian cardroom still opened.

It's a 110€ buy-in (with rebuys) qualifier for a big 1200€ tourney with a guaranted 500k€ prize pool.
46 players entered, and at the end of the rebuys, the prizepool is 8 tickets.

There are 21 players left. One more to go and the two final tables are set. 13 will leave with nothing and the other 8 take their price. No extra money to be made.

The average stack is at 29k

Presently you are 7-handed at one of the last 3 tables.
You and two others guys have short stacked with just 10-15k. The three other players have decent stacks (50k+). A 7th guy is on his way from another table.

The new 20 minutes round just begun.
Blinds are 1000-2000 with a 400 ante, making it 5800 in each starting pot. It's also how much you need to post every 7 hand around.

The 7th player arrives with also a small stack (19k). As he sits down just to your right, you are racking a pot: you just made an all-in move with your micro stack and got lucky. You still have only 15k.

One unsignificant hand unfolds as an early raiser takes it down. You dont know the new player, but you just notice, by his table manners during those two first minutes, that he is at ease and has played enough tournaments to know what's at stake

On the next hand you are in the big blind and post your 2000+400, living you with 12500. The stranger is the SB.

Everyone folds to the stranger in the SB, who bets a mini raise of 4300. He just covers you with 15500. There's 7100 in the pot.
You open your cards: 6s4s.

What's your play?

***
I'll let you discuss for a while before I'll give new info.

Fold. You are all in or nothing here. Your stack is too small to call any raise and if you shove you will most likely have to count on 46 getting you a win. Fold with the understanding you have to find another spot to get it all in before the next rotation completes.

 

[Anthony Martino]

It looks like we're getting 3:1 on a call here and position post-flop. If we call and flop well, I expect villain will be shoving most flops (or if he checks we can shove any flop) so I think I'm fine with a call and evaluate after the flop given the price we're being laid plus implied odds to double up.

Having a 12,500 stack or a 10,200 stack really isn't going to make much of a difference at this point, and I expect we're better than 25% equity against villians range here.

 

[Wils]

Based on the info, fold. You're all-in otherwise with a hand that can't even beat eggs.

 

[detroitdad]

Shove or fold. I hate short stack play so I might just shove here.

 

[Anthony Martino]

The way I'm looking at it, with a stack under 20K we're in shove-fold mode regardless. If we shove, I can't see villain folding preflop given the odds being laid. However, with 7100 in the pot already plus the implied odds of doubling up should we flop well and villain shoves any flop (or should villain check the flop and we shove and just take it all down because he whiffed, remember he's going to miss something like 65% of the time when he's unpaired I believe) then I think in this spot the optimal play is to call and give ourselves a shot at a nice addition to our stack.

The extra 2300 we're potentially losing here is worth the opportunity presented in winning what's already in the pot plus the implied odds of doubling through this villain. By shoving we're essentially guaranteeing villain gets to see all five cards. By calling there's a potential that we either flop big and get paid or villain checks the flop and we shove and take it down there. It gives us more ways to win the pot, since our stack sizes don't really afford us any fold equity preflop.

 

[SixSpeedFury]

Was this at cercle clichy montmartre? (Man, still wished I could've played there.....damn their strict codes...)

 

[DrStrange]

I am in the fold camp.

I fear this guy's min raise. Hero reads him as skilled - so why does a short stack make a min raise and invite Hero into the pot? I don't like it one bit.

Hero needs every chip he has for future fold equity, since he is jamming on one of the next six hands. Let's not see a flop with 64, hit a "lucky" bottom pair and then play for stacks.

DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

You nits are too nitty. Jam away, 64 suited isn't the worst hand to go all in with. You are pretty connected, and unlikely to be dominated.

 

[<°)))><)]

I expected more "fold".
I totally understand this:

The way I'm looking at it, with a stack under 20K we're in shove-fold mode regardless. If we shove, I can't see villain folding preflop given the odds being laid. However, with 7100 in the pot already plus the implied odds of doubling up should we flop well and villain shoves any flop (or should villain check the flop and we shove and just take it all down because he whiffed, remember he's going to miss something like 65% of the time when he's unpaired I believe) then I think in this spot the optimal play is to call and give ourselves a shot at a nice addition to our stack.

The extra 2300 we're potentially losing here is worth the opportunity presented in winning what's already in the pot plus the implied odds of doubling through this villain. By shoving we're essentially guaranteeing villain gets to see all five cards. By calling there's a potential that we either flop big and get paid or villain checks the flop and we shove and take it down there. It gives us more ways to win the pot, since our stack sizes don't really afford us any fold equity preflop.

But to me this makes more sense:

I am in the fold camp.

I fear this guy's min raise. Hero reads him as skilled - so why does a short stack make a min raise and invite Hero into the pot? I don't like it one bit.

Hero needs every chip he has for future fold equity, since he is jamming on one of the next six hands. Let's not see a flop with 64, hit a "lucky" bottom pair and then play for stacks.

DrStrange

Especially since hero just moved all-in two hands ago.

***

Anyway, back to the hand.
What happened is that "You" actually tanked for a good while, then just called.

At that moment, the floor announces "one player out, the tables break after this hand". Back to 10 handed tables.

The flop comes As-9s-2o.
You hit your flush draw.

The SB unsurprisingly steals your thunder and goes all-in.

There's 9400 + 10000 = 19400 for your 10000 stack, just below 2-1.


Do you push all-in?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

If my math is right, there is 11.4 k in the pot after you call preflop, and you have 8200 behind. So with 8200 to call 19600, you are getting almost 2.5-1 if you've made it this far you have to call.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Do you push all-in?

Yes. Let's be generous and give villain and even make that offsuit 2 the so he has a backdoor flush draw in his favor. You are still 38% to win and mathematically you only need to be around 33% for this to be break-even getting 2:1 on a call, so you have positive expected value. Add in the fact that you still need to wade through 12 more players to "cash" and you can't sit around and bleed chips, you need to take this opportunity now to try and double up and remain competitive.

 

[Wils]

As the song goes, "You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to..." ...I forget the rest.

 

[Mr Tree]

Yes. Let's be generous and give villain and even make that offsuit 2 the so he has a backdoor flush draw in his favor. You are still 38% to win and mathematically you only need to be around 33% for this to be break-even getting 2:1 on a call, so you have positive expected value. Add in the fact that you still need to wade through 12 more players to "cash" and you can't sit around and bleed chips, you need to take this opportunity now to try and double up and remain competitive.

I agree at this point you shove but this is what I wanted to avoid preflop. I felt like there were a preponderance of flops that end up with you getting the rest of your chips in and usually you will be the dog.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I agree at this point you shove but this is what I wanted to avoid preflop. I felt like there were a preponderance of flops that end up with you getting the rest of your chips in and usually you will be the dog.

Its not about being a favorite or a dog. Its about expected value

 

[JoseRijo]

A pre-flop shove is totally fine, but I like Anthony's line and reasoning best. The SB gave us a chance to see if we had any equity on the flop. And now we do!

Folding pre-flop to a minish-raise seems ridiculously nitty.

 

[<°)))><)]

If my math is right, there is 11.4 k in the pot after you call preflop, and you have 8200 behind. So with 8200 to call 19600, you are getting almost 2.5-1 if you've made it this far you have to call.

Hmmm almost.
There's 11400 in the middle and you've got 11 000 left.
There are approximations on the initial stack counts, but it really is just 2-1 to call.

No one would rather keep his 10k to go to the next 10-handed table and look for a bit of fold equity (BB is 2k, you have 5x BB to play with), instead of getting just the right odds for busting your tournament on a draw?

 

[<°)))><)]

Was this at cercle clichy montmartre? (Man, still wished I could've played there.....damn their strict codes...)

Yes it was. I'm sorry you didn't get to see it, the place is quite awesome! Those dress codes are so *** :/

 

[Wils]

Having 5BB left puts you all-in or nothing. That's obvious to everyone and you won't be shown any kindness by other players. I would go for it.

 

[DrStrange]

Ignore the BB vs stack ratio. It doesn't matter. Calculate "M" = Hero's stack / {blinds + antes} which is now less than 2.

Hero has no fold equity and is going to play one of the next few hands. Making matters worse, I expect the table break means Hero will face a draw for position. So we don't even know how many hands hero will be able to pick over before paying the blinds again. Hero has no better choice than hope for luck with his draw.

Get there -=- DrStrange

 

[<°)))><)]

Well, everybody's in line about the flop move.

Last question now.
I was in fact Villain in this hand.
What prompts this discussion is that I made a rookie mistake and am still mad at myself: while getting to the new table and trying to see who owns what stacks, I didn't pay enough attention to the fact that the blinds had just gone up.
When it was my time to post the small blind, I thougth it was still 800-1600, I put a 500 chip for the ante and a 1000 for the SB, expecting to get money back.
I hated arriving to this 7-handed where I was more or less in control of my short stack at the previous 8-h table.
When action came to me, everybody having folded, I saw a great stealing opportunity on a guy who had just made a move two hands ago, who seemed tired and harmless.
I thought my 4300 raise was just slightly under the "regular" 3BB bet (1600*3 = 4800). But it turned out to be an awful mini-raise.
Seeing the guy tank, I began to think he could put me on a premium pair with this unorthodox move.

Anyway I clearly made a mistake but I still believe that, being the BB, I would never have called (even less shoved) with that lousy 64, I would 1000 times prefer waiting for a spot where I'm the raisor and have fold equity on my side.

Had I been more focused, my preflop raise would have been an even 6000. Does it change anything to your preflop analysis?
Does it turn those who wanted to call into a fold?

 

[inca911]

I would have been the agressor and shoved pre-flop. Against a random hand, 46s is just under 40% to win (based on 56s being the model at 40%). There's 7k in the pot with ante + SB + Villian's min raise + your BB. You have 12.6k in additional chips to take that 7k. The raise to him would be 10.6k with 9k in the pot. I'd put him to task, and attempt to increase my stack now against an isolated opponent, rather than gamble later in early position at what may become a family pot. His min raise doesn't give me any indication to put him on a better-than-random hand. A larger pre-flop raise would definitely cause me to think a bit about it, but I'd still have ended up shoving all-in. With a shove, I have two ways to win: get him to fold OR luck into the best hand.

 

[Wils]

Yeah tricky. You go all in or fold. Tbh I'd probably err on the side of "all in" because you only have to beat one player. If you're getting close to the bubble and you're ultra short-stacked, the next time you go all in you're going to have a lot of callers who will check you down to the river just to see you gone.

I know that doesn't sit well with odds and ratios, but sue me

 

[Mr Tree]

I would say a raise to 6000 should have done it for villain. He would have had to call putting roughly 43% of his stack in pre or shove. Either way then you are committed to winning with 4 6.

Chippy probably still advocates that shove but I'd rather take my 12,500 for six more hands and find a higher card than 6 to exercise shove equity with.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Anyway I clearly made a mistake but I still believe that, being the BB, I would never have called (even less shoved) with that lousy 64, I would 1000 times prefer waiting for a spot where I'm the raisor and have fold equity on my side.

the problem is that the BB doesn't have enough chips to sit around and keep bleeding. In this spot he's been given an opportunity by you to face only one opponent, with position and with cards that are most likely live. He's receiving a good price to call given direct odds as well as implied odds on top, and the flop spot is a no-brainer. The BB needs to take this shot to remain competitive with 12 more players left to bust until the prizes, he simply doesn't have enough chips to sit back and wait and wait.

The drop of his stack from 12,500 to 10,200 should he call is relatively miniscule in regards to how he's going to play should he call and then fold the flop to your shove. With blinds at 1K/2K with an ante he's still going to be in shove/fold mode and someone who would call his shove to 10,200 is likely to call that same shove to 12,500. This opportunity is too good to pass up, imho.

Had I been more focused, my preflop raise would have been an even 6000. Does it change anything to your preflop analysis?
Does it turn those who wanted to call into a fold?

As the SB in this spot, given stack sizes, you should just be shoving.

 

[lherron]

I can't see raise ever being the right answer PF because villain is calling >95% of the time. Why exactly are we shoving?

2300 to win 7100 is about 3:1, and with 46s lets be generous and say you have 40% equity and will play the rest of the hand perfectly. Folding here costs you more than 2k in EV (0.40*9400)-(0.60*2300). I don't play enough tournaments to know if passing on that kind of equity is normal in late stages like this. I'm guessing sometimes it can be, but this seems like a lot.

Anyway my gut is fold. I think it's close between fold/call and either is probably acceptable depending on circumstances and read.

e: a word

 

[ParrotheadMZ]

Fold or call works for me. Not sure there is a right answer.

 

[JoseRijo]

As villain, raising to 6000 doesn't make a lot of sense. You aren't folding if BB shoves (are you??), so you should shove yourself.

 

[<°)))><)]

As villain, raising to 6000 doesn't make a lot of sense. You aren't folding if BB shoves (are you??), so you should shove yourself.

Well, I actually was on a pure steal with no hand. In this situation in a tournament, being first to speak with a short stack, I find that very often a 3-4 BB raise has exactly the same effect as a shove. Your opponent will think you are committed and won't reraise with air.
l like the idea of raising to 6000 into a 5800 pot and, if my opponent calls, either shove/bluff on the flop (he will dislike the flop most of the time) or valuebet/check-fold if the situation is not clear cut.
This, plus the opportunity of folding to a preflop reraise makes it a far better play from the SB imo.

In this actual hand, I held 92o. I would have insta-folded had I been reraised (with no regret about my steal attempt; but my read on the BB was that he would risk it all with nothing, making a steal worth a shot). On the flop I found middle pair + the scare card Ace. Enough to shove, then. But, as you can imagine, things didn't work out well, a spade hit the turn and I was out muttering to myself how stupid I was with my crappy 4300. I wondered all night if a 6000 would have been enough.
I'm pretty sure it would have, but all your comments make less obvious now

 

[Mrs Poker Zombie]

I really like your analysis. I hadn't given it much thought, but I agree that a 3-4 BB raise is indeed something to give your opponent pause when you are short-stacked. You are indeed implying you are committed. I can't say if 6000 would have been enough, but I think that would have been the impression you wanted instead of what 4300 implied. Thank you for sharing. Though the guys at S@PIII may not appreciate you improving my game.