Tourney Strat: Pocket 7s in the SB facing a button shove (2 Viewers)

[BGinGA]

But also 88+ or A10+ which leaves us dominated or flipping at best. For half our stack with no real reads and bb to act still I think it's a fold. We can wait.

And doesn't even need A10+ to be flipping -- it only takes any two cards eight or larger, which is a shitload of hands. In fact, it's almost guaranteed to be a flip, at best. Throw in the hands where villain has hero dominated, and it's an easy fold at this juncture - and that's without even taking the BB into consideration at all (which is a big mistake).

There a much better spots than this to put that much of our stack at risk. And the only way we could be exploited in the future by folding 77 now is if we are stupid enough to announce it. As far as anybody knows otherwise, we folded 83o.

 

[thorwilliam]

Yup ^



Nope ^

We should never be calling here. I think If we're playing this hand, we're shoving, but I think a fold is better.

I think shoving is a useful tool (ask anyone from the WCB last year, I know). However, I prefer to be the one starting the action, putting others in the position to make hard decisions. Not shoving to risk 40-60% of my stack on a potential coin flip. If we're closer to 10bb, I think it's an easier decision to play the pocket 7's.

Why is shoving better than calling here?

 

[Ghoti]

Yup ^



Nope ^

We should never be calling here. I think If we're playing this hand, we're shoving, but I think a fold is better.

I think shoving is a useful tool (ask anyone from the WCB last year, I know). However, I prefer to be the one starting the action, putting others in the position to make hard decisions. Not shoving to risk 40-60% of my stack on a potential coin flip. If we're closer to 10bb, I think it's an easier decision to play the pocket 7's.

By calling I mean shoving (think I said it in my original response anyways)--it's essentially the same here. We're obviously not folding to a reshove from the bb for 2.5 BBS more.

 

[Trihonda]

So we assign a normal shoving range to button here, with his stack, nothing else known: 22+, any ace, k10+, qj+, j10 suited+. That might even be too conservative. Now, consider he knows we're playing tight--tight enough that we fold pocket sevens here. He can shove basically any two now and exploit the crap out of us because we just made ourself that exploitable.

If the stack sizes are identical to the OP, then yes we fold. Let him steal our SB. Next hand, we're on the button. If we play the pocket 7's, we're risking doubling him up to 20bb, while crushing our stack to 12bb. All on a coin flip, that he's forcing us to make. Even if we're getting the right odds, I don't like flipping unless I have to. And as for him "getting away" with anything, I'm not showing him I folded pocket 7's.


Sometimes it pays to fold big hands. Just did a qualifier for a large event, and top 20% advanced. I had a decent stack, and just folded everything, including QQ, AK, JJ+ (limped to me). No reason to put anything at risk. I know these are different situations, but that's what I'm saying, given the exact situation, I'd fold in this spot. I think if the stacks are different, my response might be different.

 

[Ghoti]

This isn't a satellite. If it were, you may be right. But they are so different that how you would play this hand in a satellite is almost irrelevant. Plus, doubling him up is also irrelevant--at this point it doesn't really matter how much chips he'd have if we end up losing. What matters is us building our stack, and passing up on this spot where we are often ahead is a mistake. I'm surprised, as op was, that this is even a discussion.

 

[Trihonda]

Hmmm

Ghoti, I would argue this hand is indeed worthy of discussion. Apparently, some of the brighter poker minds here @DrStrange and @BGinGA (not including myself in their league) have voiced this to be an easy fold. However, there are a few that advocate for a call. So, I don't think it's a clear cut as you might think. Possibly not as clear as I think?

I don't have the math in front of me (as who knows the button/bb's hands). However, let's say our hand is ahead 52%/48% vs button's range (bb is still an unknown). Technically we should call, correct? Long term, it's the best strategy. However, the results of winning vs losing a hand in this spot need to be considered IMHO. We're at 32bb (play-win) vs 22bb (fold). Still respectable sized stacks either way. However, if we lose, we're now down to either 8bb or 12bb (depending on BB's action). Either way, our tournament life has taken a harsh turn, and now we're forced to alter our strategy/play significantly. Skill plays a much lesser factor. You're risking a lot.

We still haven't heard from @RainmanTrail, who professes to have skill on strat threads. Interested to hear his take.

 

[DrStrange]

I didn't vote fold, I claim undecided because we are missing essential data. The only indicator where fold might be best is that Hero's skill is better than the field.

We don't know what villain's situation really is. 9.5BB is an "M" of 6.3 if there are no antes and more like an "M" of 4 with antes. Antes create almost twice as much dead money to chase after - so knowing antes yes or no is critical. Same thing with average stack sizes, we have no clue about Hero's relationship to the field.

Button could easily be betting any two cards, more likely if there are antes and the rest of the field is deeper than button and Hero.

So I am not opining fold or jam. I am saying we need a more complete description of the situation. At this juncture I feel the fold argument is evenly balanced by the jam argument. Hero is more skilled and facing a situation where his expected value is slightly positive. Should he wait for a better place? Maybe. Should Hero snap off the blind steal and try to chip up? Maybe.

Don't ask me, I don't know -=- DrStrange

 

[Trihonda]

I claim undecided because we are missing essential data.

Ooops, lol, My apologies for speaking out of turn sir!

 

[DrStrange]

Let me add two clarifying examples.

Assume the average stack size for all players is 7BB, Hero is the chip leader and BB is third. No antes, two hours are left in this blind level. Given that, Hero is a snap fold. The risk is not worth the gain.

Alternatively assume the average stack size is 50BB, Hero, button and BB are all near the bottom of the field. Antes are in play and we have five minutes left at this level. Given that, Hero is fist pumping jamming because the next time hero is considering jamming could easily be in far less beneficial circumstances.

DrStrange

 

[Trihonda]

I'd also add that if you take the OP's stack sizes (Button is 9.5bb, BB is 12bb), but now give Hero a much bigger stack (say 50bb), I think I might find 77's more playable IMHO with the chance at a player elimination (if not two).

 

[RainmanTrail]

Sorry, I stopped checking on the strat forums.

My take:

Unless the button is a complete nit, hero should definitely be ahead of his range here. The BB isn't really much of a concern to me since he only has 12BB. I'd be more concerned if he had us covered though. There's a slim chance that he wakes up with a big hand too, in which case we'd be in a 3-legged race with a small pair (not good). However, we probably have around 55% equity in this spot against the villain's range. If I had a deeper stack, I'd be shoving here for sure. But 22 BBs is not deep enough to risk half your stack on what's likely a coinflip, and possibly much worse. That probably equates to an M of around 9 or so, depending on the structure. That's a spot where I want to be the aggressor, not the sheriff. I'd much rather wait and find a better spot to get my money in where I'm the one raising than call half my stack from the SB with 77. The best tournament strategies are largely about minimizing variance, not maximizing EV. This is a spot where leaving some equity on the table makes sense. I've seen good players shove with these hands though, but I think that's the exception, rather than the rule. Hellmuth is likely insta-folding this hand. He's a strong advocate of minimizing variance.

 

[stocky]

Sorry, I stopped checking on the strat forums.

My take:

Unless the button is a complete nit, hero should definitely be ahead of his range here. The BB isn't really much of a concern to me since he only has 12BB. I'd be more concerned if he had us covered though. There's a slim chance that he wakes up with a big hand too, in which case we'd be in a 3-legged race with a small pair (not good). However, we probably have around 55% equity in this spot against the villain's range. If I had a deeper stack, I'd be shoving here for sure. But 22 BBs is not deep enough to risk half your stack on what's likely a coinflip, and possibly much worse. That probably equates to an M of around 9 or so, depending on the structure. That's a spot where I want to be the aggressor, not the sheriff. I'd much rather wait and find a better spot to get my money in where I'm the one raising than call half my stack from the SB with 77. The best tournament strategies are largely about minimizing variance, not maximizing EV. This is a spot where leaving some equity on the table makes sense. I've seen good players shove with these hands though, but I think that's the exception, rather than the rule. Hellmuth is likely insta-folding this hand. He's a strong advocate of minimizing variance.

You saying we agree???

 

[Trihonda]

You saying we agree??? [/QUOTE

Lol... Even cats and dogs can coexist peacefully, at times...

 

[RainmanTrail]

You saying we agree???

Hells ya! I like you @stocky, even when we don't agree

 

[Phantom]

get a room

 

[BGinGA]

The best tournament strategies are largely about minimizing variance, not maximizing EV.

This aspect is often overlooked by those who primarily play cash games. There are no reload options here, and the possibility of sudden-death definitely plays a larger part in many tournament decisions -- including this one.

 

[onerand]

Not folding. Button should have a wide range.

 

[stocky]

Not folding. Button should have a wide range.

IMO we can't think this without more info. What happened on his blinds? If he isn't making this play in the bb or sb with that stack we can't assume he does on the button.

 

[RainmanTrail]

As previously stated, I'm folding. But for those of you contemplating a call vs a shove, a call here would actually probably get the BB to fold a wider range than a shove would. It just looks a little suspicious like you want the BB to call since a shove is sort of the obvious play if you like your hand. He might think you're setting a trap and move off hands he'd otherwise call with. But that also depends on the skill level of the BB. If he's a thinking opponent, this would work. If he's not, then it probably doesn't matter either way.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

I'm not going to comment either way because I think it is a very close spot(and we could use more info), but I put the push/fold chart values for 10bb with antes on the button into propokertools and we have 58.57% equity against that range.

 

[RainmanTrail]

It seems as though many some in here are trying to figure out if we have an edge by pushing. Pushing is without question +EV against almost all villains here. But I propose that that's not the question you should be asking yourselves. The more interesting question is whether or not it's worth the risk to gain the small amount of value you get from pushing here.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

It seems as though many some in here are trying to figure out if we have an edge by pushing. Pushing is without question +EV against almost all villains here. But I propose that that's not the question you should be asking yourselves. The more interesting question is whether or not it's worth the risk to gain the small amount of value you get from pushing here.

I wasn't trying to figure out if we have an edge. I know it's +ev. I was just giving an actual figure because it does matter what our equity is. That being said it's pretty hard to answer without more information.

 

[B.C.]

Shove. Sevens are always good.

 

[Stylin]

To be honest, with what we know the whole decision is a coin flip.

Personally I think I fold here. The risk does not appear worth the reward.

 

[Marius L]

Close spot. Assuming no antes, as that wasn't mentioned in the OP. I think we are probably slightly ahead of a decently aggresive villain's pushing range here. Unless we know that button is a super nit, we are probably something like 55% against his range. Assuming he will push something like all pairs, all aces, k8+, qt+, jt, and maybe some smaller suited connectors.

I usually prefer being the one pushing rather than doing marginal calls like this, but I still dont think it is a bad call. I guess the main decission making point here is how our stack plays after the hand, how much of an edge will we have with 35bb the times we win, compared to 12bbs the times we loose and the 22bbs the times we fold? This is also dependent on table dynamics and stack sizes. 35bbs will surely provide us with more playability and potentially the ability to push around the other stacks a bit and accumulate more chips. I think our posibility of going very deep is increased a lot by winning this flip, while if we fold or loose the impact isnt that big, as we will be relatively short either way. The decission would also be really dependent on the general skill of the other players in the tourney. If the other players generally suck I would fold and look for a better spot, but considering this is a 3500$ tourney I assume the other players are generally pretty good and therefore much better spots where we can get free chips might never come.

With the information we have I think I like a call here.


(With antes it would be snapcall, as there are more dead money in the pot, giving button a bigger range, us better odds and us less time to sit and wait for better spots.)

 

[JoseRijo]

This is what happens when Europeans get to play online poker for five years while Americans just get five years older.

 

[Trihonda]

I guess the main decission making point here is how our stack plays after the hand, how much of an edge will we have with 35bb the times we win, compared to 12bbs the times we loose and the 22bbs the times we fold?

Or the 8bb's we have if the BB comes along and we lose.

This is what happens when Europeans get to play online poker for five years while Americans just get five years older.

So we don't play for real money online as much... but playing 2x week live more than makes up for it. There's still poker in the U.S. of A.

 

[thorwilliam]

Or the 8bb's we have if the BB comes along and we lose.



So we don't play for real money online as much... but playing 2x week live more than makes up for it. There's still poker in the U.S. of A.

I'm not sure why you are so concerned about BB. If button had folded we should jam against BB anyway.

 

[Marius L]

Or the 8bb's we have if the BB comes along and we lose.

If you are taking this into consideration, lets also consider the spot we will be in with almost 50bbs if BB calls and we win.


I dont think we can be afraid of a player behind us in this spot. The likelyhood of him waking up with a great hand is very slim, and even if he does we still have winners.
Eventhough BB knows button is shoving loosely here, and that we are aware of that and might be calling fairly loose I still think BB will have a pretty tight range for calling allin. Lets assume he will calll with something likeh JJ+, AK, and maybe AQs? In that case against their two ranges we are still not crushed, and have about 25% equity in a three way pot without being allin ourself.

If he somehow does come along and we loose, our stack will be about the same size as it would have been if we loose to the button.

 

[jbutler]

This is what happens when Europeans get to play online poker for five years while Americans just get five years older.

So we don't play for real money online as much... but playing 2x week live more than makes up for it. There's still poker in the U.S. of A.

Let's see, two 6-hour sessions of live poker versus two 6-hour sessions of online. So approximately 180 hands of live poker versus 540 hands of online poker. And that's making the absurd assumption that one is playing only one table online, so in reality that 540 would become 1,080 at minimum. Doesn't sound like playing live could possibly ever "make up for it" when we're missing out on the greatest poker training tool of all time.

But hey, that's the price we pay for living in the land of the "free".