Tourney Strat: Pocket 7s in the SB facing a button shove (3 Viewers)

[Anthony Martino]

If we maintain our 22 bb's then we have a stack that gives us the following additional options over potentially an 8-12bb stack if we lose:

1. We are able to make a standard pre-flop raise without pot committing ourselves
2. We can shove over a standard pre-flop raise and enjoy fold equity while an 8-12bb stack is sure to get looked up and HAVE to win in the same spot

That being said, there are a variety of factors that would bring me into the call camp (when do the blinds go up next and how will that impact our M? What info we have on the button that would lead us to believe he has a tighter range, etc)

I expect us to be ahead of buttons range here, he should be shoving pretty wide in this spot. However, does the +EV spot against the button outweigh the EV impact of potentially dropping down to 8-12bb's?

We can't sit around forever, we need to accumulate chips to make that final table run. I think it's close and can't fault a call/shove or fold here (if we call we're never folding to BB's shove)

 

[Pinball]

I would 2/3 fold 1/3 (slow structure)

it also depend on the next blind level, with the blinds double it will leave me with 11 BB. If so, I would call 100%

 

[jbutler]

I would 2/3 fold 1/3 (slow structure)

it also depend on the next blind level, with the blinds double it will leave me with 11 BB. If so, I would call 100%

It's a WPT Championship event, so the structure is pretty slow once you get past the first several levels. This was at the 5k/10k level and the next jump was to 6k/12k. Not sure where in the blind level they were when this hand went down.

 

[Trihonda]

I'm not sure why you are so concerned about BB. If button had folded we should jam against BB anyway.

Absolutely. However, THAT is an entirely different situation than what was outlined in the OP. Like others have said, I'd rather be the aggressor in this spot. And shoving against the BB (after the button has folded) is just dandy IMHO, let's put him to the tough decision.

But you're comparing apples to oranges. My opinions are based on the OP and would change if the variables change.


Taking a step back....

LOL @ how passionate people are getting over this (on both sides). Let's prove that I'm right and the other guy is wrong!

It's like we're all trying to educate the fish at a casino table... Never tell a fish how to play better

I haven't spotted the fish, so I guess it's me!!!


Anyway, here's where I think we're at so far.

Several players (notably many internet wizards from overseas) are claiming correctly that to call/shove with our pocket sevens is +EV with around 55% equity in the hand vs. the button (arguably less against button and BB in the unlikely event that happens). The long term right play here is to call or shove. Their argument also includes that we can't fold against the button's range (which is pretty wide right now), as it'll open us up to future exploitation.

Conversely, several notably savvy strategists here have pointed out that although playing the 7's in this spot might be EV+, it's a virtual coin flip. These folks argue that a coin flip is inviting too much variance considering the stack sizes, and that it's not the right spot to gambol (during a tournament).

Everyone has a different style and strategy. Doesn't seem like either side is convinced or swayed from their opinion, so not much point in continuing to debate. So if you're looking for me to participate further in this thread (sorry to disappoint), I'll be busy checking out the BBoB and Hitching Post meetup threads! (y) :thumbsup:

 

[manamongkids]

I think calling with over 20bbs vs a 10bb shove from the button in a vaccum is the proper play.

Also depends on the literal size of the table, 7 handed, 8 handed + etc. How much time if left on the blind level, how long the blind level is. Poker is a game of pushing small edges, obviously, and more than 50% of the time we are ahead of the buttons range.

My personal opinion is that Im probably folding and looking for a better spot to the aggressor instead of the caller.

 

[DrStrange]

Still missing data about Hero's stack size vs the field. However we do know that there are no antes and the blinds are slow. Hero's "M" is something like 15 with limited time pressure.

I think fold is barely better than call/jam, even if Hero has something like 55% to 60% equity. There is a small RIO risk vs BB - say 3% that BB finds a hand he can't fold, half of which crush the SB.

I would feel the opposite if Hero was less skilled than the field. Then hero should be happy to try his luck with a slightly positive edge.

DrStrange

 

[MatB]

I have limited to moderate poker skills. (don't ask me whos scale i'm using) but i find this discussion very interesting as perhaps the majority of European players are saying, with more experience online seeing thousands more hands, that you should always play when there's +EV. and that over time the numbers add up. As poker has turned into a mathematical theorem class, we should all play like math robots and if you have probability over 50% of winning the hand. Then always shove/ call.

I personally don't play like that, Call me a fish. Donkey. whatever animal you want. I play mostly on intuition with a little math thrown in for good measure.
It seems in this spot the computer readout says call.
My donkey brain says. 'This aint the right spot'. Mathematically it might be. But we all know how it feels to be at the bottom rung in a tourney because you played it mathematically right and other guy sucked out. And this position with 5 cards to come has just too many variables.

 

[jbutler]

Still missing data about Hero's stack size vs the field.

Unfortunately this and lots of other information is lost to history, so what is given is all we have.

 

[Ben]

I would never fold 77 against a guy who could and should be shoving with 67s. But I'm only around break-even in tourneys with any halfway-decent level of skill to them, and almost never min-cash.

 

[thorwilliam]

Still missing data about Hero's stack size vs the field. However we do know that there are no antes and the blinds are slow. Hero's "M" is something like 15 with limited time pressure.

Do we know there are no antes? Usually these events has antes I think. I assumed there would be antes, but maybe just because I cannot remember playing a live tournament without antes.

 

[manamongkids]

Do we know there are no antes? Usually these events has antes I think. I assumed there would be antes, but maybe just because I cannot remember playing a live tournament without antes.

structure sheet from tourney http://wptmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/wp...ta-Winter-Poker-Open-Tournament-Structure.pdf

 

[jbutler]

structure sheet from tourney http://wptmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/wp...ta-Winter-Poker-Open-Tournament-Structure.pdf

Thanks, MAK! I made some very shitty googling attempts to find it then gave up.

So had a 1k ante and next level goes from 5k/10k to 6k/12k.

 

[DrStrange]

One of the factors in my leaning fold is that Hero has no table reads (and Hero is good enough to use the data when he gathers it). We don't know that button has made any adjustments at all and might have a lot more solid range than optimal. Let's watch an orbit or two to see what we can learn before betting big on what range villain should be playing.

 

[manamongkids]

Thanks, MAK! I made some very shitty googling attempts to find it then gave up.

So had a 1k ante and next level goes from 5k/10k to 6k/12k.

Also for full disclosure bit a slow day at the office today with snow and I attempted to scroll back to the tournament sunmary pages of bust outs and was unable to find any hand where someone was all in with 77. Whether he busted or busted someone else

 

[jbutler]

Also for full disclosure bit a slow day at the office today with snow and I attempted to scroll back to the tournament sunmary pages of bust outs and was unable to find any hand where someone was all in with 77. Whether he busted or busted someone else

Link to bustouts page por favor?

 

[Ben]

One of the factors in my leaning fold is that Hero has no table reads (and Hero is good enough to use the data when he gathers it). We don't know that button has made any adjustments at all and might have a lot more solid range than optimal. Let's watch an orbit or two to see what we can learn before betting big on what range villain should be playing.

"No table reads" works both ways though - some players will shove any two in villain's spot, and we could be passing up a huge opportunity. The tendency of many when readless on a player is to assume the worst (and this applies to cash games as well) and I don't think that's necessarily correct - "average in every way" is my default read, which in this case I suppose would follow the shove/fold tables.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

In a vaccuum (assuming all unknown variables are "average") I'm probably calling in this spot but it's very close. It's hard for me to give up a spot with ~59 percent when I'm probably semi short stacked. Any small table dynamic would swing the pendulum in either direction so it's almost impossible to claim either way in this situation.

 

[Anthony Martino]

perhaps the majority of European players are saying, with more experience online seeing thousands more hands, that you should always play when there's +EV. and that over time the numbers add up. As poker has turned into a mathematical theorem class, we should all play like math robots and if you have probability over 50% of winning the hand. Then always shove/ call.

I think that certainly applies in a cash game situation. In a tournament situation I think you also have to weigh your fold equity and options available with a 22bb stack (i.e. being able to shove over an initial raise) vs. being knocked down to 12bb's and being guaranteed to get looked up if you make the same play (i.e. you're potentially risking losing a tool in your box for the opportunity to not necessarily add any additional tools to your box.

I still believe it's close and can't fault any of the plays in this spot.

 

[RainmanTrail]

Just asked a friend of mine who is one of the top pros out there IMO (has several million in profits, has won the PokerStars Sunday Million, triple crown winner, numerous 6 figure cashes, lots of big tourney wins, has been on the cover of CardPlayer, blah blah blah). The point is, he's good... damn good, and he's a lot better than I am. He's also fairly nittish. Not a super nit, but I would have thought for sure he's folding in this spot. He responded with "Easy reshove". Then after I informed him I said easy fold, he followed up with...

"Lol. Well people often feel shorter in live poker and will make bad shoves with hands like A2o in mid position for 15BBs. But I mean, even online, its a shove. But ya, either way. Gotta get it in."

So, I will concede that I must be wrong here.

 

[RainmanTrail]

He also said he thinks our equity is "definitely higher than 55%", then added, "pocket 4s or 5s might be 55% here, but there's gonna be some K3o etc type hands in his range there."

He also said, "If you're an average player, then you should be shoving in similar spots with just 55% equity, but if you're a really solid player, you can fold for 55% in those spots because you don't need to gamble as much to win as a the average Joe does. But here, with 77, we definitely have higher than 55% equity. It's a great spot."

 

[MatB]

but if you're a really solid player, you can fold for 55% in those spots because you don't need to gamble as much to win as a the average Joe does."

Isn't that the point?

So it really comes down your skill level and perhaps a weaker player will feel the need to gamble?

 

[MatB]

Just asked a friend of mine who is one of the top pros out there IMO (has several million in profits, has won the PokerStars Sunday Million, triple crown winner, numerous 6 figure cashes, lots of big tourney wins, has been on the cover of CardPlayer, blah blah blah). The point is, he's good... damn good, and he's a lot better than I am. He's also fairly nittish. Not a super nit, but I would have thought for sure he's folding in this spot. He responded with "Easy reshove". Then after I informed him I said easy fold, he followed up with...

"Lol. Well people often feel shorter in live poker and will make bad shoves with hands like A2o in mid position for 15BBs. But I mean, even online, its a shove. But ya, either way. Gotta get it in."

So, I will concede that I must be wrong here.

But here your friend is saying shove. So strong player folds? weak player calls/ shoves?

 

[RainmanTrail]

Isn't that the point?

So it really comes down your skill level and perhaps a weaker player will feel the need to gamble?

Well it would be the point if we only had 55% equity here, but if he's right about the buttons shoving range having hands like K3o, etc, then we definitely have more equity than 55% in which case he'd be correct that it becomes an easy shove.

 

[RainmanTrail]

But here your friend is saying shove. So strong player folds? weak player calls/ shoves?

Here, he's saying everyone should shove. His point about a strong player folding was only for if we actually had 55% equity. But he says we have more than that in this spot.

 

[MatB]

Button has shoved with 3 players in (including himself) but its not a 3 handed table. Its a full table, button will have at least 5 more free rolls to shove with premium hands before the BB gets to him. That changes it for me. Final 3 at final table, sure his range could be k5....or not. But you can at least presume with 3 players that k5 in range.

Full table changes it. Of course i don't remember seeing an ante in OP.

 

[RainmanTrail]

There's definitely antes at the Borgata WPT

 

[RainmanTrail]

Button has shoved with 3 players in (including himself) but its not a 3 handed table. Its a full table, button will have at least 5 more free rolls to shove with premium hands before the BB gets to him. That changes it for me. Final 3 at final table, sure his range could be k5....or not. But you can at least presume with 3 players that k5 in range.

Full table changes it. Of course i don't remember seeing an ante in OP.

It's more important to shove through fewer players than it is to wait for premium hands when you're short stacked.

I'm assuming antes are in play here btw. If not, that means the tourney just started and it's a who cares hand lol

 

[MatB]

I still have a lot to learn about +ev and equity, in fact still quite a lot to learn.

But in this spot you are still pushing the idea that mathematically you should shove. My game right now is still about picking my spots, getting the villains to bet/ get their stacks in knowing i have the better hand. And although lately a few have been getting runner runner on me. I know I'm playing good game. (even when i bust out a long way from the $) This move just feel like the opposite of that. in fact this is the kind of move that you shove with 77 and the button turns over 10 10 or A9 leaving me with close to a coin flip or dominated.

At this stage of the tournament as well, I'm not looking to be bumped down to short stack status so far from the bubble, and then having to gamble my way back up (not that i haven't done that)

Of course ill defer to the guys with a lot more experience. I'll fold 77 and wait for my AA to be cracked by 78s in the BB catching 456 on the flop.

 

[RainmanTrail]

Also worth keeping in mind is that the majority of the money gets paid out to the top few spots, so it's more important to build a large stack than it is to make a deep run.

 

[RainmanTrail]

I also asked my friend what his reshoving range would be in this spot. He said...

"77 is easy, but I'm probably folding 55. Maybe reshoving A9+, 66+, KQ+, unless it's an old guy or a young kid, then I'll probably move a couple notches tighter against the old guy and a couple notches looser vs the young kid."