So, of course, you’re right. I was just putting it there as simple math. There’s actually no way to do this, because every entrant has a potentially different number of entries.
So, on first pick, the basic stats formula holds true. But on second pick, let’s say
@Steppenwolf has gotten picked first, I’d need to remove all of his entries from the total in order to recalculate odds. It actually makes it impossible to find a formula for, since we don’t know how many entries will be removed at each pick. You can run it a million times, and maybe approximate a curve like you did, but it would still be wildly innacurate because every pick changes the dimensions of the inputs by massive (or tiny) amounts.
So, I gave up on the simulation and did straight arithmetic.