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Giveaway Windwalker Giveaway #1: 1000th Post (2 Viewers)

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Josh Kifer said:
Lol. Arnt giveaways fun. I've done mine with literally "post for a entry" and people will respond "I don't understand the rules"

Weeeee..
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Ha! I must have missed that one. I remember the one with the convoluted flip-flop rules that nobody could understand and made no sense. And I remember another one where you seemed to be encouraging everybody to post early and often, but the only discernable rule was that at some point, you'd be giving away something.
 
upNdown said:
Ha! I must have missed that one. I remember the one with the convoluted flip-flop rules that nobody could understand and made no sense. And I remember another one where you seemed to be encouraging everybody to post early and often, but the only discernable rule was that at some point, you'd be giving away something.
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Yeah, you get confused easy. It's alright. You're pretty.
 
Life's been busy. Said F it and winged the quiz. Hope I did well, but even if I didn't not upset at all. Thanks @Windwalker dor the awesome giveaway and for being an upstanding chipper as always.
 
Payback said:
Life's been busy. Said F it and winged the quiz. Hope I did well, but even if I didn't not upset at all. Thanks @Windwalker dor the awesome giveaway and for being an upstanding chipper as always.
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You got 5 extra entries! That’s 5 times as many as people who didn’t take the quiz. Good luck, Bill!
 
Guys gals WW and everyone my apologies. I missed the questions that were posted. I thought those were just samples or I missed them al together. Guess I’ve just been that busy. I’m gonna go hide in a hole
7FF9D447-3773-4361-8FF7-02CAE9E42C07.png
now.
 
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Just over 24 hours to go to complete the quiz. Here’s a quick timeline (all times in Pacific Time).

- 11:59PM Sunday Oct 18 - quiz closes.
- 1:00AM Monday Oct 19 - Answers posted.
- 8:00PM Monday Oct 19 - Final entries list with number of entries and percentage chance of getting picked, pre-drawing.
- 8:00PM Tuesday Oct 20 - Final 32 from drawing posted, and tourney structure / details posted.
- 11:00am Sunday Oct 24 - Tournament!
 
Did some math as of 2AM pacific time, and here's where we stand. Below is a table that shows your percentage chance of getting one of the 32 seats in the tournament, based on your quiz entries. The last line of the table is for anyone who has entered, but not taken the quiz (n=115).

1603012627372.png

1603012653188.png

1603012677950.png
 
justincarothers said:
How did you score so low on your own quiz? :D
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Someone entered my name into the “what is your username” field, instead of their own. I left it there, so that in case there is someone who doesn’t see their name on the board, they’d recognize their error. This is the second time this has happened :)
 
Windwalker said:
Someone entered my name into the “what is your username” field, instead of their own. I left it there, so that in case there is someone who doesn’t see their name on the board, they’d recognize their error. This is the second time this has happened :)
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Well... should they happen to win then... you win, I guess?
 
Windwalker said:
Someone entered my name into the “what is your username” field, instead of their own. I left it there, so that in case there is someone who doesn’t see their name on the board, they’d recognize their error. This is the second time this has happened :)
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Maybe just inputting that to see what the results are, so they can partially determine what they got wrong, and then have better chances for their actual submission.
 
BarrieJ3 said:
Maybe just inputting that to see what the results are, so they can partially determine what they got wrong, and then have better chances for their actual submission.
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It doesn’t tell them what they got wrong. I Think they just misread the question.
 
Windwalker said:
Did some math as of 2AM pacific time, and here's where we stand. Below is a table that shows your percentage chance of getting one of the 32 seats in the tournament, based on your quiz entries. The last line of the table is for anyone who has entered, but not taken the quiz (n=115).

View attachment 555097
View attachment 555098
View attachment 555099
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. The math looks a little off for the top guys, let me try and figure it out this afternoon. It’s not as simple as 32*entries/total_entries
 
Survey sent by monkey! Now this was fun, let's do it again! :LOL: :laugh:
Thanks again, whatever the result, this was by far the funniest and most generous giveaway yet :)
 
Took the survey as I was more interested in the what the actual questIons were. Now curious how poorly I did.
 
Frogzilla said:
@Windwalker use .0134x-.000064x^2

Couldn’t find an easy formula but ran a bunch of drawings and that curve fits well.

Maybe @RainmanTrail can give us the actual formula for this kind of drawing
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So, of course, you’re right. I was just putting it there as simple math. There’s actually no way to do this, because every entrant has a potentially different number of entries.

So, on first pick, the basic stats formula holds true. But on second pick, let’s say @Steppenwolf has gotten picked first, I’d need to remove all of his entries from the total in order to recalculate odds. It actually makes it impossible to find a formula for, since we don’t know how many entries will be removed at each pick. You can run it a million times, and maybe approximate a curve like you did, but it would still be wildly innacurate because every pick changes the dimensions of the inputs by massive (or tiny) amounts.

So, I gave up on the simulation and did straight arithmetic. :)
 
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