I’m still taking my morning dump. No coffee yet, so I can relate.Reading is hard.
I read this message from the shitter.I’m still taking my morning dump. No coffee yet, so I can relate.
If that's your standard bet in a 3-bet pot vs MP it seems like a leak (?) as your 3-bet range contains a lot more than overpairs. Does anyone know what the solver says?Bet half to 2/3 pot
Curious to what the solver says as well.If that's your standard bet in a 3-bet pot vs MP it seems like a leak (?) as your 3-bet range contains a lot more than overpairs. Does anyone know what the solver says?
Personally, I feel better about taking this line with the less vulnerable hands in my range as hero. Surely hero has KK and AA in his range here, I think those are better candidates for giving free cards to protect the unpaired portion of hero's range as well. (I assume hero probably has some 3-bets preflop with AK and AQ as well.) That said 100% c-bet on this sort of dry flop isn't a bad strategy either.I'm also no stranger to checking behind here to mix it up. We're ~3:1 favorite on his range here, giving free cards isn't the worst thing and it gives V the chance to bluff.
2/3 is slightly large for most hands (unless something like two overs + NFD where you want to push equity but you are likely behind with A high). Cash games are catching up to tournament strategy in terms of incorporating more down betting.If that's your standard bet in a 3-bet pot vs MP it seems like a leak (?) as your 3-bet range contains a lot more than overpairs. Does anyone know what the solver says?
Krish confirmed bustoNone of my business, but since you bring it up, I’m curious why you’re buying in so short.
Flop is
Villain checks.
Hero?
I don't mind a downbet here, I'd make it like $650.Continuing…
$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.
4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.
V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.
Hero has in the CO.
V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.
Folds to hero.
Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.
Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.
Flop is
Villain checks.
Hero?
This is why I'd like to go bigger here. About as clean a flop as you can get for Jacks but too many cards than can come on the next two streets that hero won't like.If going simple strat route with just one flop size, it’s bone dry so 1/3ish pot is good size and JJ is as clear of a cbet hand as it gets.
If going two flop sizings, I’m not studied so don’t know if this is a good board to split size, but if so, I’d guess JJ likes the bigger sizing to get rid of more high card floats.
Agreed, while we expect hero to be ahead most of the time here, I think there is very little value to expect from villain when he is behind. A 3-bet pot pre is big enough where it's okay to shift to a strategy of protection versus trying to get max value. "Max value" isn't much more than what's already in the middle if villain is behind.This is why I'd like to go bigger here. About as clean a flop as you can get for Jacks but too many cards than can come on the next two streets that hero won't like.
A 1/3 pot (or less) bet keeps the Ax hands in there but this isn't the hand to have to try to milk those AK, AQ, AJ, A10 combos. I'm happy to take this down now with a larger bet.
This is one of the blurry lines that separates a “break even” player from a “profit” player I think. You have to be willing to accept that scary feeling and a lot of people can’t.Going smaller is scarier, but a better EV play.
Turn sizing should be geo2 or whatever the nerds call it to get all in on river
4k with 9k behind. There’s probably an equation somewhere but I just try a couple
2k into 4k. 7k into 8k (too big river)
2500 into 4k, 6500 into 9k (feels right - 2500 it is)
That size and board has a respectable IP barrel range and JJ is definitely in it.
bet 2500
Agreed, but at the same time, if villain doesn't have a hand in which he will put any additional money in as a dog, and dry overcards may well be such a hand, then there's no point in trying to size it to get calls. May as well just bet whatever will win and be glad to take down a pot that was 3-bet pre. Or at the very least, bet whatever is big enough to constitute a pot-odds mistake by the villain.Underpairs only have 2. So we actually don't want a fold, we want them to put more money in when we are an equity favorite.
We like that turn card, so just continue and bet half pot size.Continuing…
$25/$50 game at the Bike last night. Playing a bit more like $50/$100.
4 hours into the game, hero has bought in for $2k, is sitting at $18k, sunrunning.
V is Johnny Chan, in for $5k, sitting at $11k or so. We are 9-handed.
Hero has in the CO.
V is UTG+2. Opens for $300.
Folds to hero.
Hero decides on a standard 3-bet here. Raises to $1000.
Action folds to villain.
He calls.
Pot is now $2075.
Flop is
Villain checks.
So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.
Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.
Turn is
Villain checks.
Hero?
Villain checks.
So far, this is all pretty standard for an C-bet, and the flop seems well in our favor. We opt for a pretty standard C-bet size, and bet out $900. We want to fold out some of his range, but keep him in the hunt where we have an EV advantage.
Villain thinks for a bit (he acts slowly in general, no matter what the move) and calls.
Turn is
Villain checks.
Hero?
It's at least 10 cards I'm worried about. Any other queen, king, or ace provided the thinking is that villain has two of those that they're floating with post flop. Jack's are strong but vulnerable. Just seems like playing with fire to let villain realize their equity on future streets by betting small. This is a situation where hero can lose a big pot on the river or win a small to modest one before that.To comment on some of the other dialogue here, the goal is not to win hands but to win money. Ax/KQ type of hands only have 6 turn improvement cards. Underpairs only have 2. So we actually don't want a fold, we want them to put more money in when we are an equity favorite. Going smaller is scarier, but a better EV play.