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Bitcoin crash coming (3 Viewers)

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You guys should consider these options:

1. Find hard drives from 2009-2011. Search for the wallet.dat file, which is how a lot of folks stored their bitcoins back in the day, oftentimes unencrypted to boot! Could find yourself some buried treasure

2. Start your own Alt-Coin and get it to take off. There's a LOT of people trying to put a few hundred bucks into penny cryptos hoping they'll hit $1 or really explode like Bitcoin did.
 
And, why not use Chuck E. Cheese tokens as currency, I say!
 
Looks like the crash has started. Down 30% since yesterday.
 
CraigT78 said:
Looks like the crash has started. Down 30% since yesterday.
Click to expand...
I’ve been saying a bitcoin bubble was inevitable, but I would also be leery to say yesterday was the definitive start of it. It could also just be people taking their profits off the table at years end and making their theoretical profits real.
 
Mr Tree said:
I’ve been saying a bitcoin bubble was inevitable, but I would also be leery to say yesterday was the definitive start of it. It could also just be people taking their profits off the table at years end and making their theoretical profits real.
Click to expand...
After reading news stories, people who cashed a week ago still have no funds - so I am curious if this will blow up to be the world's greatest scam?
 
Mr Tree said:
I’ve been saying a bitcoin bubble was inevitable, but I would also be leery to say yesterday was the definitive start of it. It could also just be people taking their profits off the table at years end and making their theoretical profits real.
Click to expand...

Well, there it is "making their theoretical profits real".

.................... ya'll know there aint nutin there, right? This is 100% faith based trade
 
Jambine said:
Well, there it is "making their theoretical profits real".

.................... ya'll know there aint nutin there, right? This is 100% faith based trade
Click to expand...
I was saying that in the sense that any profit is theoretical as long as you own the equity.

I think bitcoin does hold honest value, but I’ve been saying for some time that the money had already been made and people were piling onto a bubble.
 
Sometimes if it is too good to be true it usually is.

Invest at least 15% in IRA's, 401k, Roth IRA

Start early because the compounded interest and growth is great. Yes there will be some down markets but put it in there and forget about it!

Long stable growth and investing works. Get rich quick not so much.
 
David O said:
Sometimes if it is too good to be true it usually is.

Invest at least 15% in IRA's, 401k, Roth IRA

Start early because the compounded interest and growth is great. Yes there will be some down markets but put it in there and forget about it!

Long stable growth and investing works. Get rich quick not so much.
Click to expand...
I’ve always believed that in the absence of information others don’t have (IE inside trading) it is impossible for a layman to consistently make profitable quick trades as by the time they react to any news that news is already priced in. I only take positions I am willing to hold long term.
 
Mr Tree said:
I’ve always believed that in the absence of information others don’t have (IE inside trading) it is impossible for a layman to consistently make profitable quick trades as by the time they react to any news that news is already priced in. I only take positions I am willing to hold long term.
Click to expand...

NIT!
 
While no one is outright saying it, looks like yesterday a few whales may have done a pump and dump. On etoro, XRP got to 1.26 @ 5pm Pacific. At 4am this morning it was @ .64. I hope everyone made it through the dip and didn't panic. I know I was tempted!
 
CraigT78 said:
After reading news stories, people who cashed a week ago still have no funds - so I am curious if this will blow up to be the world's greatest scam?
Click to expand...

The news is just always looking for sensation. I make weekly USD withdrawals (it's what I live on), as well as multiple transfers between exchanges & pools. I've never been unable to withdraw, although there's sometimes a delay of a couple hours due to congestion when something goes nuts and an exchange can't handle the load. Waited overnight once for my BTG to transfer from HitBTC to Bittrex.

Jambine said:
.................... ya'll know there aint nutin there, right? This is 100% faith based trade
Click to expand...

Yes, just like the US dollar. Pick your poison.

David O said:
Invest at least 15% in IRA's, 401k, Roth IRA
Click to expand...

Yep, my 401k is doin' just dandy, too. Thanks.

Mesnik44 said:
While no one is outright saying it, looks like yesterday a few whales may have done a pump and dump.
Click to expand...

As popular as it seems to be to think whales can somehow pump up prices on the markets, they really can't, other than just buying. And that's just, well, buying.

A pump & dump scam is done by buying cheap shit... then making up false press to pump up the price... and then selling it while the sheep are still buying on your bogus news. Then when the sheep figure out there's nothing there, and the price drops, the scammers just laugh. But that's not done by a whale buying; that's done via false press.

To some degree, they can ramp and raid to try to create rallies and panics, but that doesn't always work and can cost them as much as they make on successes. Washing is possible to create phony volume, but that doesn't do much to move the price in cryptos.

Basically, the Bitcoin market is super-volatile, and every time it starts to move, a lot of people look for excuses beyond "crowd sentiment."

It's a bit like poker... Losers always find something to blame other than their own decisions.
 
BNM said:
Also, can anyone here tell us, in simple terms, how bitcoin works?
Click to expand...

I can. But it's a lot of simple terms. You can easily understand pretty much all of it, I promise.

The trick is that it takes having all of it in your head at once to really "get it."

The only two parts that are genuinely hard to understand, by themselves, are these:

1. There is magical math that does one-way cryptography. There are two "keys" - one scrambles something, the other unscrambles it. You can't figure out the one key from knowing the other key. It's called Public/Private key encryption, and it opens a whole bunch of possibilities when you stack them in different ways. Those possibilities are actually not so hard to understand when you look at them - but the cryptography, itself? Very hard. If you can just accept that it's mathemagical, you're better off.

2. There is no "underlying value" to the US Dollar. A lot of people have a super-hard time accepting the fact that the dollar is worth a dollar because we all agree it's worth a dollar, and for no other reason. People talk themselves in circles trying to rationalize some kind of underlying basis for the dollar, but it always, always, always boils down to: because we agree it's worth a dollar.

In some ways, that second one is harder for some people to try to understand than the cryptography. And I don't say that because I make a living at cryptos... I say that because I saw people struggle to understand it during Economics class in college in the 90's, and saw people struggle to understand it during Economics class in the 2010's when I was doing my MBA. It's just really hard for a lot of people to understand that neither money, nor even their beloved gold, actually has the "intrinsic" value they think it does.
 
Mental Nomad said:
I can. But it's a lot of simple terms. You can easily understand pretty much all of it, I promise.

The trick is that it takes having all of it in your head at once to really "get it."

The only two parts that are genuinely hard to understand, by themselves, are these:

1. There is magical math that does one-way cryptography. There are two "keys" - one scrambles something, the other unscrambles it. You can't figure out the one key from knowing the other key. It's called Public/Private key encryption, and it opens a whole bunch of possibilities when you stack them in different ways. Those possibilities are actually not so hard to understand when you look at them - but the cryptography, itself? Very hard. If you can just accept that it's mathemagical, you're better off.

2. There is no "underlying value" to the US Dollar. A lot of people have a super-hard time accepting the fact that the dollar is worth a dollar because we all agree it's worth a dollar, and for no other reason. People talk themselves in circles trying to rationalize some kind of underlying basis for the dollar, but it always, always, always boils down to: because we agree it's worth a dollar.

In some ways, that second one is harder for some people to try to understand than the cryptography. And I don't say that because I make a living at cryptos... I say that because I saw people struggle to understand it during Economics class in college in the 90's, and saw people struggle to understand it during Economics class in the 2010's when I was doing my MBA. It's just really hard for a lot of people to understand that neither money, nor even their beloved gold, actually has the "intrinsic" value they think it does.
Click to expand...
All true, I suppose. But the US government has an interest in a dollar being worth a dollar and will probably go to great lengths to insure and protect that, right?
You can’t say the same about Bitcoin, can you?
 
Mental Nomad said:
I can. But it's a lot of simple terms. You can easily understand pretty much all of it, I promise.

The trick is that it takes having all of it in your head at once to really "get it."

The only two parts that are genuinely hard to understand, by themselves, are these:

1. There is magical math that does one-way cryptography. There are two "keys" - one scrambles something, the other unscrambles it. You can't figure out the one key from knowing the other key. It's called Public/Private key encryption, and it opens a whole bunch of possibilities when you stack them in different ways. Those possibilities are actually not so hard to understand when you look at them - but the cryptography, itself? Very hard. If you can just accept that it's mathemagical, you're better off.

2. There is no "underlying value" to the US Dollar. A lot of people have a super-hard time accepting the fact that the dollar is worth a dollar because we all agree it's worth a dollar, and for no other reason. People talk themselves in circles trying to rationalize some kind of underlying basis for the dollar, but it always, always, always boils down to: because we agree it's worth a dollar.

In some ways, that second one is harder for some people to try to understand than the cryptography. And I don't say that because I make a living at cryptos... I say that because I saw people struggle to understand it during Economics class in college in the 90's, and saw people struggle to understand it during Economics class in the 2010's when I was doing my MBA. It's just really hard for a lot of people to understand that neither money, nor even their beloved gold, actually has the "intrinsic" value they think it does.
Click to expand...

Agree in general... US currency is not backed by anything and never was, but to state that "we all agree" is the sole reason for "value" in the US Dollar is not quite accurate. It's required acceptance by the US Government if you live here (citizen) as well as for tax payment adds "value". Cryptocurrency does not have forced support.
 
ok can someone please give me a quick lesson in economics?

The crypto currency fans profess that (lets use the most famous one as an example) Bitcoin is great, in that it has no ties to a central banking system or government. Also it is not tied to any one countries system of economy so therefore holds its own value wherever in the world its used/traded.

But isn't the fact that its daily value, as turbulent as it is, is measured in US dollars.
Which makes me think that the Bitcoins value is ONLY tied to the US dollar. So theoretically take away the US dollar, and could the bitcoin support itself as its own currency?
I dont think if a car is worth 1 bitcoin today, and 1/2 a bitcoin tomorrow, then 2 bitcoins the next day it cant really be called a currency. Its not tenable in any sense of the word.


My question for an economics lesson was real. Please educate me.
 
Last edited:
MatB said:
ok can someone please give me a quick lesson in economics?

The crypto currency fans profess that (lets use the most famous one as an example) Bitcoin is great, in that it has no ties to a central banking system or government. Also it is not tied to any one countries system of economy so therefore holds its own value wherever in the world its used/traded.

But isn't the fact that its daily value, as turbulent as it is, is measured in US dollars.
Which makes me think that the Bitcoins value is ONLY tied to the US dollar. So theoretically take away the US dollar, and could the bitcoin support itself as its own currency?
I dont think if a car is worth 1 bitcoin today, and 1/2 a bitcoin tomorrow, then 2 bitcoins the next day it cant really be called a currency. Its not tenable in any sense of the word.


My question for an economics lesson was real. Please educate me.
Click to expand...

Buy it tomorrow at 0.5 bitcoin, and sell it the next day at 2 bitcoin. Simple.
 
ekricket said:
Buy it tomorrow at 0.5 bitcoin, and sell it the next day at 2 bitcoin. Simple.
Click to expand...

Great. !

So your saying Bitcoin has the stability and longevity value of Pokémon cards.

So what your saying is. It's like a digital beanie baby for modern times.

I think I'll pass
 
If you live in the USA, everything is valued in US Dollars. Prices at a grocery store, the value of Apple stock, a ton of coal or a bitcoin - all priced in US dollars. If you lived in the EU, bitcoin reporting in the local press are likely going to be in Euros. If you lived in China, then the reporting would be in Yuans.

The US Dollar is the reserve currency for the world at the moment. That means US Dollars are often accepted as payment in places where there is a different currency. It also means that most international contracts are denominated in US Dollars. So the fact Bitcoins is valued in US Dollars in the press doesn't make it more or less legitimate. There will be similar reports for every national currency in the Wall Street Journal every day.

Money itself is a store of value. It is valuable only because our community accepts it as a medium of exchange. Back in time, but not so long ago, we believed money needed to made of precious metals - gold, silver and copper for example. As currency became more "modern" we starting taking paper money which was "backed" by gold / silver. In theory you could take your pile of notes to the government and get the metal in exchange. Today we often trade in UD Dollars and never see a physical manifestation of the money. We get paid by check, we buy things with a credit card which we in turn pay by automatic back draft. Many of us see more physical currency at a poker game than we do for the rest of the month. As long as we all agree, the money is valuable.

So the intangible bitcoin ***could*** be as legitimate a currency as the US Dollar. It is not at the moment, and for several very good reasons likely will never become legitimate as a form of payment.

1. One thing that makes money valuable is that it is backed by the central government. You are compelled to pay many things in US Dollars (in the USA). The government pays its bills in US Dollars. I can not pay my property taxes in gold bars, Euros or Bitcoins - I must pay in US Dollars. My tax refund, social security payments and similar transactions are all paid in US Dollars by the government. The US government mandates that debts can be paid in dollars and that merchants are required to accept payment in US Dollars. By fiat this creates a community who agrees that dollars are worth something. There is no such entity that mandates the use and acceptance of bitcoins.

2. There are almost no merchants anywhere in the world that accept bitcoin. This alone is a death blow to anything wanting to be a form of currency. Note that we could say the same thing about gold - you can't generally walk into a store and expect to pay for goods and / or services with a brick of gold.

One of the big issues for bitcoin (and gold for that matter) is its volatility. Those make for a poor "store of value" because their values change rapidly. Imagine how a merchant is going to loathe holding a store of bit coins in a "cash register" when the price could change +/- 10% in an hour. On a good day the price of bitcoin goes up and the merchant makes more on the increase in value on the bitcoins in the register than he does selling groceries. On a bad day the price falls so much that the merchant lost his whole day's profit. On a really bad day, the drop in value of a bitcoin could potentially drive the merchant broke.

This volatility is one reason why the merchants of the world are not going to be quick to take bitcoin rather than the local currency. You would need to be specially motivated to prefer bitcoin rather than a credit card / bank draft on the local form of money. (Yes the local currency has its own volatility but it amounts to a few percent a year for a stable currency - we call this inflation.)

3. Bitcoins are one step further untethered from "value" than traditional money. We have a generally good idea where dollars come from. There is a massive effort to prevent counterfeit dollars from circulating. Yes, the government is constantly printing more money and thus causing inflation, but we have a lot of measures to know how much money is being created by the national government. Bitcoin by contrast is quite opaque. No one knows where it comes from. (Well someone in the world knows, but he/she is not saying and we might not believe it if they did tell us.) There isn't a good way to distinguish between a "real" bitcoin and a "counterfeit" bitcoin. We can't tell how many bitcoins are in circulation, how many are being created each day or how many might be made in the future.

Bitcoin is a weak store of value because there can easily come a day where the entire project could come unraveled. One example of what could go wrong - bitcoin "mining". Mining actually means "accounting". Bitcoin depends on miners to pay for the cost of keeping track of all the transactions that support the ownership of existing bitcoins and pays for this in bitcoin. Note that "miners" are paid in bitcoin but pay their expenses in the local currency. If the miners find the costs vs rewards unfavorable, then they stop doing it. And that would be the end of bitcoin. Perhaps there is a mechanism to increase the payout for the bitcoin miners - that could help extend the life of the accountancy. But if so, it is yet another opaque function which could degrade the value of the coins.

Bitcoin is potentially open to fraud by the founders or anyone who figures out a way to "break the code". It is the founder(s) I would be most afraid of. We take on faith that the founders can't create all the bitcoins they want or that the whole idea was to create a modern day Ponzi scheme. Could be that bitcoin is no more than what is said. Could be it is a sucker's game which will be a joke ten years from now.

I put bitcoin in the same "investment" category as beany babies, emus, pink sheet stocks or Iraqi Dinars. Sure you can make a fortune with good timing and the understanding that someone at the end of year is going to be left holding the empty bag. It is your job not to be left holding the bag - speculate if you must but never hold on for the long term.

Be careful out there, this will be a bumpy ride at best and a dead-end / long drop to the ground at worst -=- DrStrange
 
DrStrange said:
We can't tell how many bitcoins are in circulation, how many are being created each day or how many might be made in the future.
Click to expand...

Bitcoin is finite. My understanding is there are exactly 21 million Bitcoins in existence that can be mined. A number of them have been lost and are believed irretrievable.

If the miners find the costs vs rewards unfavorable, then they stop doing it. And that would be the end of bitcoin. Perhaps there is a mechanism to increase the payout for the bitcoin miners - that could help extend the life of the accountancy. But if so, it is yet another opaque function which could degrade the value of the coins.
Click to expand...

It's believed all possible bitcoins will have been fully mined by 2040. Initiallly a block of bitcoins that was mined contained 50 coins, then the difficulty increased and it dropped to 25, then 12.5 and so forth. Making mining more difficult and I suppose driving up the value somewhat as the increase in "labor" to mine goes up. Eventually when all coins are mined the miners will still be needed for the processing of transactions with coins I believe.

I've also read that Bitcoin won't be used as a currency, but as a store of value. Other crypto currencies are supposedly better positioned to be utilized as forms of currency and will be more stable.

Please note that I'm still a relative n00b in this area, only dabbling slightly at the moment
 

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