Down to heads-up with pocket 8's and 16 BB's (1 Viewer)

MrBo

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Playing in a monthly league tournament, $40 buy-in ($5 bounty, $5 to final game). 25 players started and Hero and Villain have been heads-up for about 10 hands now, both going into this hand with exactly 127k in chips and blinds at 4k/8k. About 5 minutes left in this level, then blinds go to 6k/12k. 1st place pays $200, 2nd is $160.

Hero feels he has an edge over Villain, who tends to play a wide range pre-flop but is pretty passive post-flop unless he has an actual hand, when he overbets the hell of it. Villain has also been uncharacteristically giving walks from button/SB and folding to smallish (2.25ish) Hero raises from button. Probably catching a lot of rags cause I would expect him to be playing any suited connectors and hands like Kx, Q8, etc. He has open shoved twice from the button/SB, which I'm thinking could be any pair, broadways, Aces, all the way up to AA... he would probably play them all the same.

Regardless, Hero has been gradually chipping away at the monster stack Villain had going into the final table and feels like he plays straightforward enough that he can out-maneuver him in good spots. At the same time, we are not particularly deep and there's not a lot of room for fancy poker to be played. You can probably see where this is going by now, so here we go...

Blinds 4k/8k, Villain and Hero both have 127k on the dot.
Hero is in SB/button with 88. Hero raises to 18k (feel free to critique this)
Villain snap shoves
Hero...???
 
Fold. Best case scenario I'm guessing is a race. However, since it's only 40 dollars difference in the payout i shove and go to the cash game
 
Fold. If you really do have an edge over the villain post-flop, then there's no reason to get it in right now with a slightly ahead/way behind kind of hand. Give him this one and then patiently keep squeezing him when you know that you've got a bigger advantage.
 
Fold. If you really do have an edge over the villain post-flop, then there's no reason to get it in right now with a slightly ahead/way behind kind of hand. Give him this one and then patiently keep squeezing him when you know that you've got a bigger advantage.
The chance for way ahead is bigger than way behind.
 
Shove pre-flop with those pocket eights.

As played..... I probably fold, since you are likely to either be racing or very far behind. Not much you are dominating at this point.

What are the implications of finishing 1st/2nd in terms of the final points race and/or final game? Any?
 
Shove pre-flop with those pocket eights.

As played..... I probably fold, since you are likely to either be racing or very far behind. Not much you are dominating at this point.

What are the implications of finishing 1st/2nd in terms of the final points race and/or final game? Any?
You don't think he would push any pair and sometimes an ace with an eight or lower kicker?
 
Shove pre-flop with those pocket eights.

As played..... I probably fold, since you are likely to either be racing or very far behind. Not much you are dominating at this point.

What are the implications of finishing 1st/2nd in terms of the final points race and/or final game? Any?

Point difference is 5 pts, which is not really that significant. I've run extremely well so far this year and won two of the prior games, including one just a week before (the guys decided to run two games in April). I went into this game thinking how sweet it would be to win in back-to-back weeks, but am otherwise not too concerned about racking up points since I'm sitting pretty in 2nd overall and would have to work hard not to qualify for the final game.
 
You don't think he would push any pair and sometimes an ace with an eight or lower kicker?

Push if first to act, probably. Push when facing a raise? A ~lot~ less likely, especially with weak aces.
 
Push if first to act, probably. Push when facing a raise? A ~lot~ less likely, especially with weak aces.
I would think that it would be more likely that he has an underpair than overpair bc many players would reraise the highest pairs instead of moving all in. I would much rather reraise all in with these stacks with a low pair from bb than open shove from sb. An open heads up does not often mean a hand that can call an all in and there's more money in the pot. An open shove with a small pair 16bb deep will put us in a spot where we are risking too much for too little imo.
I agree that it is not too often that villain will have ace-rag, but I see it often enough to not discount it from his range.
 
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Pay jump is only $40. I'm shoving with 55% equity. Unless he has 99+ it is a flip or better. I'm flipping congratulating villain if he wins then drinking beer.
 
Fold. If you really do have an edge over the villain post-flop, then there's no reason to get it in right now with a slightly ahead/way behind kind of hand. Give him this one and then patiently keep squeezing him when you know that you've got a bigger advantage.
If he folds he is about to have an M of 6... how long should he wait for his bigger advantage?

Snap-call
 
I would think that it would be more likely that he has an underpair than overpair bc many players would reraise the highest pairs instead of moving all in.
That's crazy talk, when both players have 15 bb. Re-raising a 3bb initial raise vs shoving? What's the point - do you plan on folding anytime later in the hand, for any reason?
 
If he folds he is about to have an M of 6... how long should he wait for his bigger advantage?
Which is exactly why he should have shoved in the first place. :)
 
Villain's range is almost certainly unbalanced towards two over cards vs pairs. There are 36 hands that make over pairs and 3x [or more] that make up tight over cards.

There is every chance villain is tilting given how the heads-up game has been playing out. It sounds like Hero has been running circles around villain and shredding his chip stack. Villain doesn't have to be acting prudent here, could easily be frustration leading to a mulish "all-in!" Hero is going to be 70-30 or even 80-20 vs some significant part of villain's range.

This is Hero's chance, lets go for it. I vote call.

DrStrange
 
Hypothetically speaking, if this was the WSOP main event where the difference between 1st and 2nd was millions of dollars, I'd definitely fold. Not that it's a bad hand, I would just hate to get it all in when even stacked with a medium pair preflop.

If I was playing an opponent who I felt had an edge on me, I'd probably call since Villain's range could be ace rag, 2 overs, or a lower pair. $40 less isn't bad at all.

In this situation, Hero feels confident enough to take down Villain. I say fold and continue to wear him down. Granted, Hero could very well be ahead, as snap jam has me thinking an under pair, but play it out and beat him on skill.
 
Thanks everyone for all the feedback. I always enjoy seeing a difference of opinions, which seems to support my thought that this wasn't the easiest decision.

RESULTS:
Hero mulls it over for a little while and eventually makes the call. I felt my hand was most likely best at the moment, though knew it was likely going to be one big flip for the win. Even though I wouldn't be losing too much of my stack by folding, I was getting the correct odds to call assuming a range full of mostly two overcards, plus the blinds/stack sizes would put us in push-fold mode for the remainder of the game anyways and I would surely not fold 88 to an open shove later on.

Villain shows JTo. Window card is a 10 and Hero loses the flip and takes the 2nd place points and money, but is nonetheless bitter about missing out on a back-to-back win.

Some added thoughts:
1) Hands like this that I look back on and speculate over tend to have a common theme: I put myself in a spot where I let my opponent put the big decision on me rather than the other way around. In hindsight, open shoving here is probably best, and Villain actually said he probably would have just folded if I had shoved (though having seen him play, calling his stack off with JTo is not out of the question). I'm not really raising my button to steal since my hand is most likely best (though would be fine with V folding), but not raising to induce a shove either really, since my hand is pretty vulnerable. Trapping by limping and then jamming would be a decent play if V was likely to try a steal from the BB with air, but in this case he's almost always either checking or shoving himself, so that's not really an option.

2) I ran the odds against a few potential ranges and was a tad surprised about how mediocre 88 performs. Even against the top 40% of hands, which includes hands like K2o and Q5s, 8's are only a 60-40 favorite. There's definitely an edge there, but I think sometimes I'd rather be the 40% guy applying the pressure rather than the 60% guy facing it. I didn't plan my hand so well here and wasn't able to get the added advantage of fold equity.
 
That's crazy talk, when both players have 15 bb. Re-raising a 3bb initial raise vs shoving? What's the point - do you plan on folding anytime later in the hand, for any reason?
Its not crazy talk, its an observation from thousands of tournaments played.
Its not a 3bb raise btw, its 2,25bb.
The point its not that we are going to fold, but make villain continue in the hand.
 
Hypothetically speaking, if this was the WSOP main event where the difference between 1st and 2nd was millions of dollars, I'd definitely fold. Not that it's a bad hand, I would just hate to get it all in when even stacked with a medium pair preflop.

The amount of money in the tournament is irrelevant. What matters is the probability of OP winning the tournament at every decision point.

Do you really think that OP has a better than 60% chance to win with a 43-57 chip disadvantage and less than 14BBs to work with? That's the only question that matters.
 
The amount of money in the tournament is irrelevant. What matters is the probability of OP winning the tournament at every decision point.

Do you really think that OP has a better than 60% chance to win with a 43-57 chip disadvantage and less than 14BBs to work with? That's the only question that matters.
Yes I do, as indicated by the OP stating that Hero has gradually chipped away at the "monster" stack of the Villain at the final table (which was even stacked at the beginning of the hand). If Hero feels like he can outplay Villain, then I believe that a 43/57 stack disadvantage is easily reversible. The main point of my post (which was not quoted) is that, if I were the Hero, I'm not putting my tournament life at stake on a likely flip (could have even been worse than that) when the stacks are so close and the perceived skill advantage favors Hero. Personal opinion of course.
 
The amount of money in the tournament is irrelevant

I agree with this. However the discrepancy in the payout between first and second is minimum imo. First is 200. Second is 160. For 40 bucks. For this type of payout I'm not wasting anymore time. Now if the payouts were 200 and 100 that would be a different story.
 
I really don't see any other option than to shovel the chips in Hellmuth-style in whatever manner possible. Those who advocate folding under any circumstances -- I'd like to hear how your range of opponent's hand. Hero is 68.8% fav vs a random hand pf.
 
Which is why Hero should have shoved pf instead of raising.

But Hero's 88 is no longer facing a 'random hand' after Villain shoves, and has nowhere near 69% equity at that point.
I don't see how shoving is ones only move (or even the "right" move) at 4k/8k when sitting on 127,000 chips here... You have a big HU hand. You are mathmatically around 50% against hands that are going to call and a fold gains you 2/3rds of a big blind as blinds are going up.

I'm absolutely a fan of calling the shove but not a fan at all of open shoving.
 
[QUOTE="I'm absolutely a fan of calling the shove but not a fan at all of open shoving.[/QUOTE]

Care to explain this? I don't understand why you are unwilling to risk it all vs. a random hand, but are happy to get it in vs. a strong one.
 

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