Hand against Luckbox McLuckerson... (1 Viewer)

[Shaggy]

It’s never in good if you lose. Those are the hands you need to have the discipline to lay down if you want to make the big-time.

???? wha ????

 

[bigdonkey]

???? wha ????

Until you can learn to understand these deeper concepts you’ll never be able to dodge bullets, baby.

 

[kmccormick100]

It’s never in good if you lose. Those are the hands you need to have the discipline to lay down if you want to make the big-time.

This is a joke, right?

 

[Saoliver]

It’s never in good if you lose. Those are the hands you need to have the discipline to lay down if you want to make the big-time.

What? if @kmccormick100 math is correct (and I have no reason to believe that it is not), then you got all the money in as a 2.5:1 favorite. That is great!

 

[Saoliver]

Until you can learn to understand these deeper concepts you’ll never be able to dodge bullets, baby.

Ok. I see now that you are trolling. You caught me.

 

[Shaggy]

Until you can learn to understand these deeper concepts you’ll never be able to dodge bullets, baby.

Thanks Phil.

 

[WedgeRock]

What are the effective luck margins of hero and luckbox villain?

 

[Josh Kifer]

Does he have 40 years of experience?

 

[Taghkanic]

Flop comes down:


What would you have done in this position?

Bet small to induce either weak calls or raises to build a pot. But be wary on future streets as there are a lot of cards that make better straights. Nice part is that so far there are no flush draws.

 

[colter ripton]

I'm definatley calling his jam here.

I also dont think it's the worst play in the world by villian. Double gutter with 2 overs isnt exactly a gasp worthy all in against a shorter stack.

You played it fine. I probably would have led out on the flop, but if you are sure that someone will bet, a check raise line is also fine. If you do lead out on the flop and get raised by something like a double gutter you might have gotten him to lay it down with a jam. Do you really want him folding here though? I'd be happy to get my money in here as a good favorite. If you lose you lose.

If I am in villians shoes I would take the free card on the flip most of the time. If I did elect to lead out however I wouldnt fold to a 40 dollar raise either. I'm atleast going to see a turn card. The all in isnt terrible either if he thinks he might have some fold equity.

 

[Alex Lundstrum]

What are the effective luck margins of hero and luckbox villain?

His golden horseshoe gives him +2 luck but 40 years of experience gives him disadvantage on river rat rolls...

 

[pltrgyst]

.... with . If we don't flop a nut straight draw, a flush draw (not thrilled but still ok), trips, or two pair, you should be done with the hand almost immediately.

"Almost"?

 

[Kain8]

"Almost"?

Flops like or would fall into the grey area category where we can turn additional equity but also a lot of bad turns can come as well.

 

[asam2006]

So when do we get to the end of this thread? Is it just McLuckerson wins and I get my nuts scraped again? So there that's proof?

 

[APatHand]

I think this is just a tease and his straight is good against the poorly named Luckbox.

I mean, isn't it the sidekick named Lucky that gets (gut)shot, instead of the hero, at the end of the movie?

Art imitates life.

 

[ando5k]

This is where the hand gets interesting and I am not sure what I did, was correct, but want others opinions.
There are now 5 players going to a flop, Hero is in early position with 4 others behind, limped pot with $15 in it [minus the rake... after turn]

Flop comes down:


What would you have done in this position?

Overbet 20, if called be careful of any card 8 and over other than an ace hitting the board. Hero should be content to take down 15. If called by 1 pot is now at 70. We are dodging 8's, J's and K's on the turn as well as any paired board. Whatever the turn is determines next play.

 

[ando5k]

Btw, I have made the play the Villian made before with JQ if I have a backdoor flush draw to go with it. I am trying to scare off bottom 2 or A10 or an open ended draw with the 8 there, and I may have a little equity on a hand like 89 or 810 if my Q hits. Definitely only doing this against certain villains that I know that play LAG.

 

[rimmerryan]

As we know by the title...
Luckbox hits his Q on the turn for the better straight, scoops the pot after a blank on the river.

Worst part was after felting someone like that was stacking the chips, immediately racking them, and then getting up and leaving on the very next hand...

 

[RainmanTrail]

On the flop, I highly recommend betting $3, then quickly exclaming, "WAIT! Fold in turn please!"

 

[RainmanTrail]

After checking on the flop. Villain has bet out $15... folded back around to me and I decide to raise.
I raise slightly more than I would have normally as I didn't want this guy calling me and pairing up to make a boat, or trying to catch a card.
So, I make it $55 to go.

He tanks for a minute or two and keeps looking back and forth between the board and me... me and the board.
He finally says out loud that if I hit it, I must be good, and shoves all in.

Board so far is:

After I call his shove, I immediately flip over my cards to show the flopped straight.

He hesitates like he doesn't want to flip his cards over.
But when he does, the table audibly gasped... almost everyone couldn't believe that he had made the play he did.
He flips over:

!!!

Two overs... with a double gut-shot.

Please don't take this the wrong way. We've all gotten our money in good on the flop only to watch someone draw out on us. It sucks and I'm sorry you didn't win. But if you don't see the value in the villain's play here, you would do well to take this hand as a lesson in learning rather than one to be frustrated by.

Villain risked ~$217 to win a $125 pot on the flop if you fold + his equity against your range with 2 overs and a double gutshot on a rainbow board to win $342 if you call. While in this particular hand it turns out he was behind when he got his money in, the fact of the matter is that not only was his play not a bad one, it was actually a profitable play. If I'm the villain here, I'm going to mix up my play between calling and shoving in this spot too.

In this particular hand, villain has 28.5% equity against your flopped straight. But your range is, or at least should be, MUCH wider than that on this board. Hero was in the blind here in an unraised pot and could easily have check raised with hands like K8, A8, 83s, 98o, basically almost any 8, T7, QT, J9, 77, T4s, AT, QJ, KJ, KQ, 66, J8, etc. Your check raising range here, especially after everyone else folded, ought to be pretty wide. And he has a strong hand against that range. He probably has at least 40% equity against your range - especially if you check raise with any naked 8. But even as played, in this worst case scenario where you actually flopped the straight, he still has 28.5% equity. That's a lot of equity for "getting it in bad".

It's easy to see why this is a profitable play if you turn it into a simple math problem. If villain has 40% equity against your range, then he doesn't even need you to ever fold for his shove to be profitable (assuming 40% equity against your range gives: $342*0.4 - $217*0.6 = +$6.60 EV). Add in the fold equity and this becomes an extremely profitable play by the villain.

But even if every single time he gets called, you rolled over 86 for the straght, giving him just 28.5% equity, that would only be a -$58 EV play for the times he gets called ($342*0.285 - $217*0.715 = -$57.685). So he'd only need for you to fold 46% of the time to break even if the entire other 54% of the time you showed him the 86 ($57.685/$125 = 0.46). But of course, he shouldn't assume that you always have the straight here. A pretty fair percentage of your check-raise holdings can't profitably call his shove, so he actually has pretty decent fold equity here. He's making a decision based on your range, and the decision he went with was a profitable play.

 

[RainmanTrail]

The bet sizing decisions we make affect our opponents decisions as well. The line that hero chose in this hand set up an opportunity for the villain to be able to take advantage of the situation. If instead of check raising big on the flop, hero had chosen to lead out with say a pot sized bet, hero could have been the one to put villain at a tough decision if he raises hero's flop bet and then hero gets to be the one to shove. Also, if hero had instead check-raised to something like $40 villain would have had less incentive to shove and been more incentivised to just call since the reward for him shoving wouldn't be as high.

There is a lot of value in setting yourself up to be able to be the one who gets to decide whether or not to shove in a hand rather than placing your opponent in that position. This is one of the reasons why leading out with these effective stack sizes on the flop would have been the better decision for hero, the other of course being the risk hero takes in giving everyone behind him free cards.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Cliffs: this is a bad beat post, someone tell me it's going to be ok

 

[Hornet]

Worst part of the story is the guy racking up and leaving the next hand. That tends to put me on tilt so much that often I’ll get up from the table and take a walk when “that guy” gets lucky and felts me, and then immediately leaves.

 

[BGinGA]

Worst part of the story is the guy racking up and leaving the next hand. That tends to put me on tilt so much that often I’ll get up from the table and take a walk when “that guy” gets lucky and felts me, and then immediately leaves.

One option is to announce call but only toss in a single chip, then if/when he hits his miracle card, just rack up and beat him to the cash-out cage. Apparently works in some casinos..

 

[Hornet]

One option is to announce call but only toss in a single chip, then if/when he hits his miracle card, just rack up and beat him to the cash-out cage. Apparently works in some casinos..

Yeah, apparently slapping people in the face “works” in some casinos too, as long as you’re willing to be led out in cuffs ...