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Hand Analysis - $100/$200 NLHE Home Game (3 Viewers)

I like a check/ call on the river as well. Give him some rope if he want to try a bluff, or to maybe value own himself a little bit. He might have the Qd or 4d here, but I'm not sure you can ever fold against this specific drunk bluffy villain when you have about a pot size bet left in your stack (or a bit more).
 
FDLmold said:
Villain seems out of character this hand compared to previous hands. Not sure how to read that.
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Right. And I don’t think we heard what hero’s table image is, or what we think villain considers hero’s table image.
 
Legend5555 said:
Because drunk guy is paying attention to that 15 shots in?
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I dunno. I’ve been so hammered I could barely hold my head up. But I still knew who was in the hand. Maybe I’m special.

I don’t know how much it matters at this point anyway, because I’d be going to showdown no matter what. But it could have informed earlier streets. Anyway, I’d agree with bergs - bet call
 
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upNdown said:
Right. And I don’t think we heard what hero’s table image is, or what we think villain considers hero’s table image.
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In this game, I’d be considered loose aggressive, but after tripling buy in, I had tightened up a bit so as to not lose my stack before we ended. Villain considers me pretty tight at this point, and had complained a bit ago that I wasn’t gambling enough.
 
Windwalker said:
who has done a “fold and hold”
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1653163094527.png
 
Windwalker said:
Hero bets $25,000, a bit under pot size. A raise will give us info, and we will most likely fold, but a smaller bet might induce villain to raise with a smaller diamond than J, given his previous affinity to push out weak bets. We’re hoping for a fold here, especially if he doesn’t have a diamond, and is playing 10s or another medium pair.
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Just to discuss this turn bet for a moment. I think we want to go a bit smaller because a smaller bet allows us (1) more chance to get called by worse (the aim of almost any bet we make), and (2) allows us to get away if villain raises/jams and we feel like we are beat (not saying I would fold here as played, but Krish you seem to be saying that you most likely would fold). If you want information, you can get it for $8k-15k just as easily as $25k. Now when you say that we are “hoping for a fold” - I think this is true broadly speaking in the sense of, we will feel relieved to take down a pretty nice pot at this point. Think we all probably agree with this. However when you zoom in on the kinds of hands that you want to fold out on this turn “tens or another medium pair” - it strikes me that these are all actually hands that we WANT a call from on this turn. We would love a call from 99 right? Only hand we don’t really want a call from is a kind of Kd or Qd with a small pair like the 6 or 5 because that gives villain quite a bit of equity. So maybe we want to fold out the Kd6x here, but even that, we don’t really mind a call from given we have just one card left to come. We are always trying to get called by worse (very possible here) and fold out better (seems pretty impossible given villains image).
 
Many different takes on it. Given the history and intoxicated villain, I personally think a jam is in order in the turn. I’m automatically assuming I’m ahead here given villain’s range. If he’s chasing the diamond flush with Qd and it hits, so be it. That’s poker. Sometimes you win and sometimes,

1653255872084.gif
 
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Conclusion:
———————

LA home game, started at 5pm, with buy-ins at $20-$25k, with blinds at $50/$100. 8 players.

Fast forward to 2:30am. Tons of rebuys and adds. Blinds are $100/$200 with tons of straddles. Average stack size is $120k.

Hero is in for $40k, stack is at $125k. Villain stack is at $350k, down about $100k.

Hero is UTG+1, has double straddled to $800.

Villain is in HJ, raises to $2400. Loose aggressive, drunk on at least 15 tequila shots, has been making massive bluffs and showing for the last 4 hours. Villain is also host.

UTG player calls. TAG. Up $40k. Has been trying to play pots with drunk villain.

Hero has :jd::js:.

Plan here is to isolate villain and discourage UTG from calling. Villain will most likely call any raise, so we have to think about bet sizing that will convince UTG player to fold. Given just a call from early position, we’re not putting him on a very strong hand, but we need to raise enough to get him out.

Hero re-raises to $12,000.

Villain instacalls.

UTG player folders.

Flop is :ad::2d::6c:

Everything about this flop is annoying. Villain has shown time and again over the last few hours as he has gotten more drunk that he could have anything. Last action of note was check raising a super tight player on the river with bottom pair and correctly reading that the player wasn’t strong, thereby getting a fold. But villain shouldn’t have been in the hand to begin with, he 3-bet with 82s.

Options are a small C-bet to see where we’re at, but villain’s MO is to raise anything small. We are better off controlling the pot, especially with the ace on the board.

Hero checks, with the intention of calling most bets from the villain.

Villain hesitates. And checks back. (Very curious.)

Turn is :5d:

We have a decision to make here about betting. The check back indicates that villain is not playing an ace, and is most likely chasing an FD, or maybe slow-playing a set. Kd and Qd are well within his range, as he could have easily raised pre-flop with unsuited broadways. A made FD is a possibility, but a bet will figure that out for us.

Hero bets $25,000, a bit under pot size. A raise will give us info, and we will most likely fold, but a smaller bet might induce villain to raise with a smaller diamond than J, given his previous affinity to push out weak bets. We’re hoping for a fold here, especially if he doesn’t have a diamond, and is playing 10s or another medium pair.

Villain standing-tanks for a while. He calls.

River is the :3d:.

At this time, another semi-drunk recreational player who has done a “fold and hold” throws his cards into the muck, but it catches the dealers hand, and a card flips over.

The card that flips over is the :kd:.

He apologizes profusely. Villain looks relatively stoic and has no reaction.

Hero checks. As @upNdown points out above, Villain has played this has very differently than his previous aggressive plays, which makes me smell a slow-play. I’ve seen him do this before, a couple of times. His lack of a reaction to the King being exposed was also atypical; he’s usually the first to chastise people about stuff like that.

Plus, as I stated above, I had worked to triple my buy-in, and was concerned about losing it all on a bad beat. I wanted to see the size of his bet, and match that to the unfamiliar way in which he had played this hand.

Villain pauses for what seems like forever. And then moves all in. Not a value bet, but all in.

Nothing about it seems right. The entire way he’s played the hand feels incongruous to how he’s been playing for the last few hours. After a 10 minute tank, where I mostly was convincing myself not to call, I make the decision to fold. I turn over my jacks and say, “I think you have nut or straight flush.”

Villain gets pretty animated. “How did you not pay me off?”

He turns over :qd::4d:

In reading people’s thoughts above, I’m reminded that most of the time, that’s a bad fold. Just happened to be right this time.
 
On the contrary, that's a fantastic fold. I had them figured for Q 10 or Q9 with the queen of diamonds, but to have that and the straight flush? Yowza.

If villain had bet half pot, would you have paid him off? I think this villain got too greedy.
 
JMC9389 said:
On the contrary, that's a fantastic fold. I had them figured for Q 10 or Q9 with the queen of diamonds, but to have that and the straight flush? Yowza.

If villain had bet half pot, would you have paid him off? I think this villain got too greedy.
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Yeah, I think was prepared to call anything up to around $40k.
 
Wow! Nice check-fold, and very nice pick-up on the fishy turn check back by him! Live reads absolutely matter, nicely done.
 
good fold krish. but yeesh, this sounds like a dangerous (or profitable) game.
 
Marius L said:
He might have the Qd or 4d here, but I'm not sure you can ever fold against this specific drunk bluffy villain when you have about a pot size bet left in your stack (or a bit more).
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A prophetic comment.

I think the take-away is a) if Krish's general read on the player was correct ("drunk bluffy" as @Marius L puts it) then indeed there's no way to fold and if he has it then oh well too bad, BUT ALSO b) Krish picked up on a discrepancy in his behavior which suggested that this time he wasn't bluffing and therefore Krish could make a reasonable fold.

GJWP
 
Windwalker said:
Villain hesitates. And checks back. (Very curious.)
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Windwalker said:
Villain standing-tanks for a while. He calls.
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Windwalker said:
Villain looks relatively stoic and has no reaction.
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Makes me believe he missed the Ace likes a free card to trap if flush comes and you won’t think he had a flush draw with no value bet on the flop to build the pot. Maybe bigger combo draw he’s piling some in at flop.

Probably drawing

Really quiet here he seems to want a call and hit his draw so I’m folding here as well
 

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