home game tourny hand (1 Viewer)

[AlPresidente]

4 handed, on the bubble, payouts £165/100/60
Hero (SB, T100000): has been successfully playing the big stack aggressively & building his stack at the expense of the weak players. Tendencies to be over-sticky when invested in a pot & to tilt.
Villain (BB, T54000): TAG (for this table), has a reputation for bluffing and being bluffable, consistent winner in this game.
UTG (T50000) calls 4000 big blind. Has bled chips lately to villain by limp/calling PF & folding to a continuation bet. weak player.
Button (T26000) folds. Worst player of the 8 who started by some margin and the standard in generally pretty poor.

Hero looks at A9o. Fold, call, raise or ship?

 

[DrStrange]

How do we know Villain's hand but not know Hero's hand?

 

[David O]

How do we know Villain's hand but not know Hero's hand?

That is what I was thinking. I almost answered this but withdrew. Are you portraying yourself as the villain?

 

[AlPresidente]

Fixed.

 

[Trihonda]

Villain looks at A9o. Fold, call, raise or ship?

No, I'm hero.

Fundamentally flawed strat thread. I can't tell you what I should do as the hero, without knowing hero's hand. If you are taking this from the point of the villain, we'll need a lot more information.

I could take a couple of lines here, depending on my read of what people might do.

A9o is a marginal hand IMHO, but considering we only have to gambol that the BB doesn't have a better hand, we could ship and likely take down the blinds/limps. +8K.

Flatting and folding seem -EV to me.

Raising might be ok, but bet sizing gets interesting given the SPR of those involved. What do we want? Do we want to get all the money in, or see a flop and get lucky?

The BB could have anything, but the UTG might come along if you make a 3-4x BB raise. If you miss the flop, are you going to c-bet? With a 3x (12k) bet/call preflop, UTG's stack is ~ pot sized, and could be committed.

I guess my vote (without more info) would be to put the other stacks to a hard decision. Jam pre.

 

[AlPresidente]

I fixed the OP. You were supposed to take villain's viewpoint (they're now called hero).
What info should I have provided?

 

[DrStrange]

I think aggression is reasonable here. Jamming makes the rest of the hand easy. Hero might be able to make a smaller raise and then navigate post flop but his position is bad, so Hero needs to be a lot better than the villains for me to want to try this. Perhaps I could respect a plan to raise/fold preflop and basically abandon the hand post flop if called { assuming that Hero has the appropriate villain reads }.

Hero is in a slightly RIO situation if he jams. He wins T10,000 if everyone folds, but is almost certainly behind when his jam is called.

Hero is 25/75 vs a better ace and 30/70 vs a pair 99+ [but not AA]. Let's just call it 30/70, which is likely rather generous to Hero. So Hero is risking 48K to win 104K when called (or minus T16,800) This is not a terrible proposition. Hero will often win the T10,000 uncontested and if called still have a reasonable shot of busting someone. Worst case is Hero flips position with one of the villains with solid chances to win the event.

Embrace variance! The villains aren't going to like taking tournament ending risks without a top 5% hand.

DrStrange

 

[BGinGA]

Call the 2000 and see a cheap flop. Not raising out-of-position, and no reason to put a large percentage of my stack at risk, given the circumstances.

 

[AlPresidente]

seriously? With the shortie folded on the bubble 4-handed?
Or do you have a bad feeling about this because of my ineptitude posting hand histories?

 

[JoseRijo]

It seems like a good shove even if you were one of the 50k stacks.

 

[Adam Crowley]

Snap shove. Even though these players may not be well versed in tournament theory, you would still expect them to get the general concept that the guy with 6bb busts and everyone gets paid.

The other two players in the have have ~13bb stacks but should be playing tighter because of the money bubble. You can't raise and play this hand out of position with a 13bb stack ever. You should be leveraging your stack on the bubble to collect as much dead money as possible.

A9 is a great hand to do this with. Sometimes they will wake up with a better Ax, in general you will pick up the dead money from the limped and the bb.

 

[AlPresidente]

Hero raises to 12000, Villain shoves for 54000, hero calls. Villain's AQ suited turns a flush and wins.

Hero felt he made a bad call & it really is. For break even tourny equity, villain would need to be shoving with a range like any suited ace, a7+, any pair, any two broadway.

I ran some ICM calculations on the hand afterwards and was surprised just how good a spot this is for the big stack to shove. If hero shoves blind here, AKsuited is a marginal fold for villain! Villain needs 67.5% equity to make calling breakeven and only has 67% with AKsuited against any two cards. I suspect that even in high stakes tournaments most people play the end of tournaments really badly.