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Hustler Casino Live (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter AnteAndy
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RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
My friend asked me why I thought Phil Ivey didn't think she cheated and my response was that he just didn't have enough info at the time he was asked about it to have an opinion, so he was just dodging it. He clearly didn't want to be taking about it though when he was asked during the stream, and I don't think he was paying all that much attention to it. Hence, he just assumed she misread her hand at the time. I said I guarantee he changes his mind after going back and watching everything transpire. Looks like I was right.
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
She's losing to almost all of his bluffs though. Plus, he is shoving here with his nutted hands as well. There's no making sense of the call unless you think she misread her hand.
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RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Oh, and a quick aside. I'm not convinced that Hans Niemann has been cheating in over the board chess. Obviously, he has admitted to cheating in online chess, but the analysis I had read about him correlating with the stockfish engine on 100% of moves was not true. Or rather it was only true of some of his online games. I'm not convinced that he cheated in the match against Magnus Carlson last month. I think Magnus played a shit game (certainly his worst in recent months/years), possibly because of his concerns about Niemann being a cheater? I think he tried to take Niemann so far out of his comfort zone that Magnus ended up outside of his as well and it ended up biting him because he made some critical mistakes that cost him the match.
I am convinced though that Hans is a legit super GM regardless. He's crushing people again, as we speak, and is back up over 2700 despite being checked for anal beads at every turn. Hikaru talks about him in depth on Lex Friedman's podcast this week. It's worth a listen if you're interested in it.
My current cheating scandal stances are:
1. Hans Niemann - 60% confident he's not cheating at over the board chess, and that he's "just that good". 100% confident that he has cheated in online chess (which does not affect FIDE ratings).
2. Robbi Lew - 97.8% confident that she cheated/had some level of intel about Garrett's cards, or at the very least colluded with someone in some way that coerced her to make that call.
I am convinced though that Hans is a legit super GM regardless. He's crushing people again, as we speak, and is back up over 2700 despite being checked for anal beads at every turn. Hikaru talks about him in depth on Lex Friedman's podcast this week. It's worth a listen if you're interested in it.
My current cheating scandal stances are:
1. Hans Niemann - 60% confident he's not cheating at over the board chess, and that he's "just that good". 100% confident that he has cheated in online chess (which does not affect FIDE ratings).
2. Robbi Lew - 97.8% confident that she cheated/had some level of intel about Garrett's cards, or at the very least colluded with someone in some way that coerced her to make that call.
Hans last confirmed cheating was in 2020 and was all online. Dude was young and was/is not the most mentally sound, not that it excuses anything, but he seems to have learned from his mistakes. There have been zero instances of confirmed OTB cheating and anything flagged as "suspicious" since 2020 has not held up to much scrutiny when thoroughly analyzed. His game against Magnus, when studied, has everyone admitting that Magnus simply played poorly. Maybe he got in his own head if he thought Hans was cheating, but as more time has passed on since my initial take in this thread, I am 99% sure Hans is not cheating OTB. I know you have a specific methodology for how you come up with your numbers, but unless it's an appeal to authority (Magnus, Hikaru, etc.) and their hunches, there is simply no concrete basis for any recent cheating claims against Hans, especially OTB. Until something new and provable comes out, it's going to be tough to get me off that number.
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Ok this is her best one yet, too many great new characters she plays to pick a favorite
Actually, that would be cherry-picking one small part of a detailed report, then being so biased and lazy that you expect others to summarize the rest for you.
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Yes, this is pretty much exactly where I'm at as well. My only reasoning for saying I'm "only 60% confident" that he's not cheating OTB is because of my level of respect for Magnus and Hikaru. But after listening to Hikaru discuss it on Lex's podcast, I have drastically changed my tune. I also looked into the statistical correlation data for matches played a bit more, and those are not what I thought they were before. There are some matches where his correlations with the best engines are slightly higher than both Magnus and Hikaru, which implies skill at the highest level, but they aren't anywhere near 100% correlation like was previously presented by Yoshi (or whatever his/her/their name is). His OTB correlations are in the 60s and 70s percentiles, which is where other Super GMs best games are as well. It's not like he is multiple standard deviations above those guys. I don't see any actual evidence that he has cheated OTB other than the fact that he absolutely cheated online.
I disagree with you, but truthfully this whole J4 saga is exhausting..
I'd much rather be playing poker .
Me too. Specifically, I’d love to be playing poker against a table of people who believe Robbi
Samuel
Straight
Sorry, I think I mean that Beanz guy (instead of Nik/Airball)?
Samuel
Straight
Interesting. In this article (ASSuming the author quoted him (Nick) correctly): https://authorhour.co/seven-figure-decisions-nick-vertucci/ (April 2018), Nick is quoted as saying "...because I was a reserve police officer for 18 years."
For those who don't know, there is often/usually a HUGE difference between being Full-Time Sworn and being a Reserve - and yes, that's not "Always" (and I personally know a handful of exceptions to that statement). In the above 2+2 posts, he claims to have been a "police officer" (making No distinction between full-time or reserve) and also for 20 years (instead of the 18 years he claimed 4 years ago).
From that alone, I would categorize him as a Bullshitter and anything/everything coming out of his mouth would be taken by me with a shaker of Morton's. I would be interested to find out which LE agency he supposedly was a reserve officer with, when (what time period), what level (I, II, or III) reserve officer, and his stats (the stuff that he actually did/handled)...
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justsomedude
Straight Flush
Oh shit. Who’s going??
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Dammit I just saw this and was gonna share
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
This shit reminds me of the old Tom Vu commercials
grandmeme
Straight
Wow, Nick has done a real 180. Humble family man scamming elderly retirees to big tough tattoo guy running his own casino with no security checks and being the third biggest winner in his own casino! Wait a minute..
Meddler2
Full House
How can he claim to have the tightest security when they admitted to not doing employee background checks?
Wonder if he feels the same about Adelstein's accusation?
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Nick doesn't own or run Hustler Casino
He is part owner of High Stakes Productions which operates the Hustler Casino Livestream
grandmeme
Straight
Christ, that sounds even worse. So that means that he was only in charge of a few employees for ONE livestream specific game - how does he manage to fuck that up this hard???
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Samuel
Straight
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
The most damning evidence for Vertucci that I've seen to date are his tattoo choices.
RainmanTrail
Straight Flush
Hans Niemann filed a $400M lawsuit against Magnus, Hikaru, Rensch, and Chess.com yesterday.
Is there that much money in chess, that his damages could possibly be worth anything close to that?
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