So I wasn't on much over the weekend, but thought I would join the party late.
Well crap, as played we gave villain easy decision and now one of the worst cards comes out. Probably just open fold.
I don't understand this comment, it doesn't really change anything, 65 I guess gets there, but did she really call with the underside of a gutshot?
level myself into calling - dont see how a hand like a 10 with a pair would have played this way.
Turns out i was right!
She flips over a pair of sixes for a set on the river. Barf.
Wow, okay Highli, guess I was wrong holy cow.
Yeah. I imagine a turn lead would have driven her off. It was that and the river call I was curious about others thoughts on. Seems the turn lead was like 50/50. And I'm the only dumbass who found a river call
Wow, I guess the turn gave her "extra outs" and hero did take a line that's very "top-pair or better." The only way villain might put hero on a straight is exactly Q-10 given pre flop raise and flop and turn bets. (Assuming hero is not likely raising JT pre.) So in that sense, this is a very sick value bet on the river on villain's part. I guess the turn was worse than I would have thought, because other than a 6, I don't think there is another card in which she can continue. I assume she was floating flop to defend against hero possibly having some air with a c-bet here.
As for hero, I like every street before the river. I think I could find a fold on the river though. I think hero has stronger possible holdings on this this and TPTK is more middle of range, imo. Hero maybe can't have the nuts, but he surely can have overpairs and flopped sets I would assume.
It would come down to if I think villain could be overbluffing scary runouts against obvious scare cards. I don't usually give unknown players credit for that and hoping for that runout, but hero does mention some "move making" possibility in the description, so who knows if that's enough of a factor to tip it. Otherwise, I am going to let my sets do the bluff catching here, I think.