PAHWM: $5/10/(125?) AKs (2 Viewers)

[kirchhausen]

I feel like Villain would likely not have taken back his blind raise if he had a pocket pair. I suppose he could have A6, A9, or even 69 but you have blockers to the Ax. That leaves us with 6 combos each of A6 and A9 and 9 combos of 69 that have you beat.

There are 16 combos of 78 that he could be raising with. What else do you think could be in his range that he is raising you with here? Other than the 78 there really aren't any draws? Maybe a weaker Ace to "see where he's at"?

I think I just flat and proceed with caution.

 

[CraigT78]

Flat and start bitching about the floor judgement.

 

[gopherblue]

I think flatting is ok, but I think PF if he had Ax, he would’ve been raising, and he likely thinks no one has an A since they limped PF. I think he’s raising in position hoping the A is a scare card.

 

[kirchhausen]

I think flatting is ok, but I think PF if he had Ax, he would’ve been raising, and he likely thinks no one has an A since they limped PF. I think he’s raising in position hoping the A is a scare card.

Or maybe villain realized what @Payback was doing by limping with the intent to raise, and decided not to raise hands you would normally assume he would raise in that position. At this point I'm levelling myself

 

[Frogzilla]

If I want to be on good terms with seat 2 (invite to home game, networking, whatever) I just flat.

If I don’t, I call floor, I deadpan ask him is that raise going to stand or does villain have the opportunity to take that one back also, and then I flat.

 

[Frogzilla]

Also if this is one of those hands where payback is actually the villain ...lol not cool

 

[Jimulacrum]

See? I told you. I told you! Don't get so greedy that you let whales get away with making sketchy, unclear actions. Always protect yourself.

As to how to respond to this raise, i want more information. We have an impression of Seat 2 as a loose maniac, but it's based on bad preflop hands, from the look of it. How does he generally play post-flop? Does he frequently raise the flop with top pair or less? How would he respond to a reraise here with a draw? A weak pair? A strong hand? If he's weak, will he keep barreling if you just call and check the turn?

This is essentially a limped pot now, with deep stacks. Hand reading is critical at this point. Don't let this player's table image lure you into getting over-invested with one pair if it isn't warranted.

 

[Jimulacrum]

If I want to be on good terms with seat 2 (invite to home game, networking, whatever) I just flat.

If I don’t, I call floor, I deadpan ask him is that raise going to stand or does villain have the opportunity to take that one back also, and then I flat.

+100 snark points

I agree wholeheartedly with the sentiment.

 

[Payback]

See? I told you. I told you! Don't get so greedy that you let whales get away with making sketchy, unclear actions. Always protect yourself.

As to how to respond to this raise, i want more information. We have an impression of Seat 2 as a loose maniac, but it's based on bad preflop hands, from the look of it. How does he generally play post-flop? Does he frequently raise the flop with top pair or less? How would he respond to a reraise here with a draw? A weak pair? A strong hand? If he's weak, will he keep barreling if you just call and check the turn?

This is essentially a limped pot now, with deep stacks. Hand reading is critical at this point. Don't let this player's table image lure you into getting over-invested with one pair if it isn't warranted.

In the notes on Seat 2 I mentioned the A8 hand. After that hand he proceed to lose the entire 2.2k he had in front of him within a few orbits. The majority went into a 5 players all in pot (total pot was like 4ish, he lost like 1400 on the habd) on a 9h5d4d board with one player flopping a set, one with an over pair, one with a straight draw, and two players with flush draws. Seat 2, had the smaller flush, 8dJd vs. a bigger stacks KdTd. The board paired on the end, but the player with the set was all in on the flop for like $200. The overpair jammed the rest on the 2c turn for $300, all 3 draws calling. River was 9d. KTdd jams for $800 and Seat 2 called it off.

 

[kirchhausen]

In the notes on Seat 2 I mentioned the A8 hand. After that hand he proceed to lose the entire 2.2k he had in front of him within a few orbits. The majority went into a 5 players all in pot (total pot was like 4ish, he lost like 1400 on the habd) on a 9h5d4d board with one player flopping a set, one with an over pair, one with a straight draw, and two players with flush draws. Seat 2, had the smaller flush, 8dJd vs. a bigger stacks KdTd. The board paired on the end, but the player with the set was all in on the flop for like $200. The overpair jammed the rest on the 2c turn for $300, all 3 draws calling. River was 9d. KTdd jams for $800 and Seat 2 called it off.

Based on this small sample size, he sees like a loose passive player, not loose aggressive. Even more reason to proceed with caution IMO. Loose passive players generally don't re-raise light.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I would've waited til the floor got there before making my preflop decision. As played, flat and let Seat 2 keep betting into you.

 

[Jimulacrum]

In the notes on Seat 2 I mentioned the A8 hand. After that hand he proceed to lose the entire 2.2k he had in front of him within a few orbits. The majority went into a 5 players all in pot (total pot was like 4ish, he lost like 1400 on the habd) on a 9h5d4d board with one player flopping a set, one with an over pair, one with a straight draw, and two players with flush draws. Seat 2, had the smaller flush, 8dJd vs. a bigger stacks KdTd. The board paired on the end, but the player with the set was all in on the flop for like $200. The overpair jammed the rest on the 2c turn for $300, all 3 draws calling. River was 9d. KTdd jams for $800 and Seat 2 called it off.

That's not an especially horrible play. Loose preflop with the J8s, but getting 4-way action on a flopped flush draw ain't bad.

The A8 hand, same deal: loose preflop, but TPTK on the flop, in a potentially dominating situation against a big ace. (Also possible to be against a lot of other hands, so not a great play, but not terribad either.)

Based on what you're giving me, I think Seat 2 could be truly strong here. Flopped set or two pair seems most likely. If he loves his draws, he could have 78 as well, but that's the only reasonable draw.

One of the things that makes AK a premium hand is its strength in conjunction with the information you get by raising preflop, plus the decreased SPR from the bigger pot. But here, SPR is very high and we have little indication of preflop strength.

I guess you could call, but now you're going into the turn with some very big bets left to happen and no additional information.

Raise > fold > call.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Raise > fold > call.

That's a raise with the intention of taking down the pot right now, or folding to a reraise. I'm honestly not even sure I put raising before folding anymore. AK doesn't look great in this spot. I think I'd feel better about it if he'd raised his option preflop.

 

[Payback]

If I want to be on good terms with seat 2 (invite to home game, networking, whatever) I just flat.

If I don’t, I call floor, I deadpan ask him is that raise going to stand or does villain have the opportunity to take that one back also, and then I flat.

Absolutely #1 here. The player pool in this game isn't deep enough to alienate and ultimately is part of the reason why whales can get away with shit like that. They are smart enough at this level to know what's up and a lot of them try to leverage that into whatever edge they can as that's sometimes the only place they can get one.

Also if this is one of those hands where payback is actually the villain ...lol not cool

Often times I will mix it up so I'm not Hero to keep you all on your toes, but that move isn't in my book so you know Seat 2 isn't me.

 

[Payback]

Action:
New dealer arrives. Seat 2 is the button, Seat 3 posts $5, Seat 4 posts $10, Seat 2 posts a pile of red chips as a button straddle. Somewhere between $100-$125. Previous dealers have only allowed $20 on the button. This dealer doesn't say anything and proceeds with the action.

Seat 3 calls $20, Seat 4 folds and starts asking what is the deal with the button situation. Most players are like whatever leave the money there. As seats 5/6/7 fold there are still no objections or decisions made. Meanwhile Seat 2 says if the floor comes over this is going to be a blind raise.
*Floor did get called twice before about $100 straddles and both times forced it down to $20.

Hero looks down at


Hero decides on a flat call of $20 with the plan to LRR for a few reasons:
1) Avoiding calling attention to his hand.
2) Wanting to get the action to the button quickly so the blind raise stands.
3) There are 2 aggressive players behind Hero that might raise. Not to mention that we will get to see what Seat 3 does before acting again.

*Vs any of these players Hero is willing to shove PF and play for stacks.

Action Continues:
Seat 10 folds, Seat 1 folds and now the dealer says your action Seat 2. He says oh, I'll just call and pulls back ~$100. A player not in the hand objects before Hero can, floor comes over, asks about what happened, and rules, that he can't put out more than $20 for a straddle and anything above that doesn't count. Therefore it's like the chips aren't there and he can do what he wants. Seat 2 elects on checking his option. Hero mumbles profanities under his breath....

*The usual floor that Hero loves, that is always there when he plays, and makes consistent rules was gone. He would bind his action as a raise 100% of the time. This fill in is apparently highly inconsistent.

3 players to Flop ($70):
Seat 3 (SB) checks, Hero bets $45, Seat 2 raises to $125, Seat 3 folds, Hero raises to $300, Seat 2 thinks for about 20 seconds and calls.

Turn ($670):
Hero ???

 

[Kidsthesedays]

What does PAWHM mean?

 

[Rhodeman77]

if we think seat 2 is on 78 we have to bet again. And with his extra equity that he could make 2 pair or trips we should size up as I don’t think is going anywhere.

 

[CraigT78]

What does PAWHM mean?

PAHWM means play a hand with me. I don't know what PAWHM means.

 

[Rhodeman77]

What does PAWHM mean?

Play a hand with me

 

[Frogzilla]

if we think seat 2 is on 78 we have to bet again. And with his extra equity that he could make 2 pair or trips we should size up as I don’t think is going anywhere.

Don’t forget it is a limped pot and he checked his option... he has every 2 pair combo and there’s are 21 of those. I bet 99 is in his limp range too because of the angly shit that went down pre (players have basically committed to calling 125 pre). So there are 6 sets. 27 solid value combos that would take this line.

The only obvious bluff is 78- 12 of those, and then if we add some bluffs (maybe villain going HAM with gutters) some of those just got there. And like you said, we aren’t even that far ahead of 78.

I think we are way behind his range and should check for pot control. I’m also surprised we went for the flop 3-bet.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I don’t think 99 is in his range very much. That hand is too strong not to raise preflop with all the limps that happened. But all the 2 pair hands are definitely possible. I like the raise to help define seat 2’s hand. If he raises us back we can get away from AK pretty easy now. If he just calls I would think he is much more likely to have a weak made hand like a worse Ace or a draw like 78. We do have a blocker to A9 and A6. I think 69 would want to 4 bet the flop as there are no good cards for that hand and a lot of scare cards that will shut down the betting from both players.

 

[markleteenie]

Very interesting hand, I've been following along and love the discussions. Thanks for posting it @Payback .

I'm thinking he could have 99 or AK/AQ. He seemed pretty disappointed that the button straddle blind raise to 100+ didn't hold, and thus called the floor. That should indicate strength like he wanted to re-raise it pre. His check raise call on the flop is also interesting if he doesn't usually incorporate those moves.

I think we try to check it down to showdown (or maybe a blocker bet on the river) since we have some equity, or dump it if there's a sizable raise down the road.


Edit: I re-read, and see that this opponent did not call the floor, it was someone not in the hand. So he wasn't necessarily lying in wait trying to trap. But he could also have had the same exact thoughts as the hero, so I'll stick with it.

A player not in the hand objects before Hero can,

 

[Hornet]

I think @Rhodeman77’s analysis is spot on. I don’t think 99+ or AK+ are in his range or he would’ve raised his button straddle. A flopped two pair or set is possible, but I think given his image and button straddle, there’s a very good chance he would have played them more aggressively and 4-bet on the flop. So that leaves 78, worse aces, and pair with backdoor straight draws in his range, all of which hero was ahead of on the flop.

I like the line Hero took on the flop. I don’t love the turn though, as it puts some of his two pairs up. Most likely I check call.

 

[Moxie Mike]

3 players to Flop ($70):
Seat 3 (SB) checks, Hero bets $45, Seat 2 raises to $125, Seat 3 folds, Hero raises to $300, Seat 2 thinks for about 20 seconds and calls.

Turn ($670):
Hero ???

I put the villian on ace-rag offsuit. Here's my logic:

The description of the button makes me think he's a capable enough player to understand that good EP players (including but not limited to HERO) could have been limping* with the intention to raise preflop. As a result, he looks down at a playable hand and realizes he wants to see a flop more than he wants to splash around so he checks his option.

The smallish flop bet from HERO might be perceived as weak and/or probing, so villain raises thinking he's the only one in the hand with an ace only to be surprised by a reraise from the HERO.

The hesitation before calling the flop 3-bet leads me to suspect that villian is not trapping with flopped two-pair or a set. I think those hands get 4-bet on the flop from this villain. 7-8 seems unlikely given the amount of time it took him to call. Calling with an OESD here should be pretty automatic.

I think villain also folds any non-ace-hands to HERO's flop 3-bet.

I would lead out on this turn. $350 sounds about right. Villain will call with all the unimproved aces, and raise with 2-pair or better. If he picked up a straight draw with his kicker, he'll definitely call but not raise.

If you get raised you probably should release the hand confident villian made 2-pair at worst.

 

[Frogzilla]

I really hope this gets shown down. My gut was villain is pretty polar here and the more I analyze the more convinced I get. And everyone else is putting him on the opposite.

Validate my read seat 2, you angle shooting POS

 

[Payback]

I really hope this gets shown down. My gut was villain is pretty polar here and the more I analyze the more convinced I get. And everyone else is putting him on the opposite.

Validate my read seat 2, you angle shooting POS

You get your wish, but not just yet!

@Moxie Mike gets the prize for picking out the Hero action on the turn.

Action:
New dealer arrives. Seat 2 is the button, Seat 3 posts $5, Seat 4 posts $10, Seat 2 posts a pile of red chips as a button straddle. Somewhere between $100-$125. Previous dealers have only allowed $20 on the button. This dealer doesn't say anything and proceeds with the action.

Seat 3 calls $20, Seat 4 folds and starts asking what is the deal with the button situation. Most players are like whatever leave the money there. As seats 5/6/7 fold there are still no objections or decisions made. Meanwhile Seat 2 says if the floor comes over this is going to be a blind raise.
*Floor did get called twice before about $100 straddles and both times forced it down to $20.

Hero looks down at


Hero decides on a flat call of $20 with the plan to LRR for a few reasons:
1) Avoiding calling attention to his hand.
2) Wanting to get the action to the button quickly so the blind raise stands.
3) There are 2 aggressive players behind Hero that might raise. Not to mention that we will get to see what Seat 3 does before acting again.

*Vs any of these players Hero is willing to shove PF and play for stacks.

Action Continues:
Seat 10 folds, Seat 1 folds and now the dealer says your action Seat 2. He says oh, I'll just call and pulls back ~$100. A player not in the hand objects before Hero can, floor comes over, asks about what happened, and rules, that he can't put out more than $20 for a straddle and anything above that doesn't count. Therefore it's like the chips aren't there and he can do what he wants. Seat 2 elects on checking his option. Hero mumbles profanities under his breath....

*The usual floor that Hero loves, that is always there when he plays, and makes consistent rules was gone. He would bind his action as a raise 100% of the time. This fill in is apparently highly inconsistent.

3 players to Flop ($70):
Seat 3 (SB) checks, Hero bets $45, Seat 2 raises to $125, Seat 3 folds, Hero raises to $300, Seat 2 thinks for about 20 seconds and calls.

Turn ($670):
Hero bets $350, Seat 2 calls quickly

River ($1,370):
Hero ???

 

[Rhodeman77]

I think Hero checks to induce a bluff. Very hard to get value from a weak ace or worse that missed now. Good chance he checks back a weak ace for showdown value, but he may also realize it is not the best hand and try to bluff you off a slightly better Ace. Or he may even think his Ace is now good once you check and that you missed the draw and try to value bet his Ace.

Unless Hero feels Button is super sticky with any ace it going to be very hard to get paid value betting here. Give him a chance to bluff a worse hand.

 

[Frogzilla]

That river is pretty good... counterfeited 6 of the A6 value combos and has nice removal properties (got rid of two combos of 99, 3 combos of “dinner for 2”, and 2 A9). Now have just 10 two pairs and 4 sets. I think AK is too thin here to bet/fold, we have a bluff catcher let’s let him bluff. I check/call.

 

[Moxie Mike]

@Moxie Mike gets the prize for picking out the Hero action on the turn.

River ($1,370):
Hero ???

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while I am convinced villain holds A-7 offsuit.

Great river card. Bet $350 again and get insta-called. Nice hand!

I think Hero checks to induce a bluff. Very hard to get value from a weak ace or worse that missed now. Good chance he checks back a weak ace for showdown value, but he may also realize it is not the best hand and try to bluff you off a slightly better Ace. Or he may even think his Ace is now good once you check and that you missed the draw and try to value bet his Ace.

Unless Hero feels Button is super sticky with any ace it going to be very hard to get paid value betting here. Give him a chance to bluff a worse hand.

I respectfully disagree. HERO has demonstrated significant hand-strength on multiple streets. Villain likely is disappointed by the river nine and has a lot of showdown value with aces up, but probably knows he can't move HERO off his stronger kicker. Villain will gladly accept a free showdown when checked to without trips or better.

HERO has already told the button 3 times that he's behind, but he refuses to believe it. Go ahead and punish him one more time

I think we have to be very sure villain will bet representing a nine in order to check here.

Villain will pay off a modest value bet because of the psychology involved: His level of thinking doesn't go deep enough to wonder 'what does this bet mean', or 'what does my opponent want me to do'. He see a $350 river bet and thinks to himself, 'I already have $670 invested and I just put $350' in so I might as well call again and find out if I'm good.'

 

[Frogzilla]

Great river card. Bet $350 again and get insta-called. Nice hand!

What’s the plan if villain goes ahead and jams on us (which, btw, A7 is a really good hand to turn into a river bluff because too weak to call and has great blockers). It’d be a $1600 bet into a pot of $2000 so pretty reasonable.

Surely we have to fold?