Pocket twos, last hand with deep stacks (1 Viewer)

[Mr Tree]

Your SPR is less than 3. You have bottom set on a monochrome board. Just shove now and get it over with. If someone has a flush, you have outs. If someone has a higher set, then you are out of luck, like always when you lose set over set.

You play cautiously here when the pot is $30 and your SPR is 25. Not here.

BTW..........expect some variance.

L

^^^^^^I endorse this statement

 

[Trihonda]

My prediction (cuz I want a dramatic finish):

You raise to around $240, a big stack calls, OMC calls (all in)... three to the turn:

Turn is the 8 of clubs.

Hero and Big stack get it all in...

OMC tables A10 hearts

Big stack tables K8 clubs

Hero is crushed, but hits the one-outter case deuce on the river (ship it).

 

[DrStrange]

Well that would be a sweet result, but even if hero does get all of the money at the end it was not anything like Trihonda's vision.

DrStrange

 

[DrStrange]

I'm going to do this thread a little differently than other. This time I am going to post Hero's plan and see what people make of it

*** The Plan for The Hand ***

Hero has two conflicting problems. 1) a hand like has a nifty chunk of equity vs bottom set and I want that hand to fold. 2) Hero is facing a RIO problem - he can easily lose his whole stack vs a better hand but is going to have to be the beneficiary of good luck to double up.

Hero expects to get called down by better hands if he shoves and perhaps called down by a hand like . Maybe terrible flushes would fold, but likely not. So, Hero elects not to shove with such a deep stack (but would with say half as large a stack.)

Hero also does not want to flat because it will encourage calls. OMC's raise is tiny relate to the pot and not going to get someone who called $42 to fold to $45. This would be good if no one has a heart, but Hero suspects that might not be the case.

Hero decides to raise to $150. (which might be too small). He will call a shove from the LAGtard button. Hero would strongly consider folding to a shove from SB, BB or UTG - a check / three bet shove is not a happy thing. Hero does not care what OMC does.

Hero plans to jam a non-heart turn. Hero will take a free card on the turn if there is a four flush on board. Hero is check/folding vs UTG but will call small value bets on the river from SB or BB.

Hero hopes his reputation will freeze the table into playing their hands "true". A raise vs OMC represents a big hand and everyone knows Hero is willing to play a huge pot here. It is hoped that a three bet means made flush or bigger set, though I expect BB would play for stacks knowing that Hero can't have the nut flush and might fold to a big bet.

The goal is to run off the bad flush draws and maybe get weak flushes into call down mode.

Thoughts? (results after tonight's session)

DrStrange

 

[xt!]

Raise is too small. Raise bigger to fold out more randomness

 

[Ben]

If I raised I would jam. Just flatting the $45 has it's advantages (and disadvantages) and honestly that's probably what I would do up a bunch on the last hand of the session, although jamming may be the slightly better play. I feel like stuck LAGtards are going to call $150 with any pair+heart hand or any broadway heart here, and we don't really want that.

 

[DrStrange]

Well I have to say that I never thought the most popular line was going to be a 3x pot jam, RIO be damned. (Hero risks $658 to win $207 with a likely call from OMC who only has $113.)

*** results ***
Button and SB snap fold.

BB starts to writhe and then talks a lot. BB basically describes the RIO problem he (and the rest of the table face). Hero could have K, in which case villain is drawing to two outs. Hero could have the nut flush, in which case villain is drawing almost dead. Hero could have a hand like in which case villain has a seven out flush draw. Hero might have a set, villain would have a full flush draw but Hero has a redraw. Or Hero has the naked and is semi bluffing in which case villain wins so long as a heart doesn't come. (villain misses a few possibilities, but we all get the idea.) Basically villain decides that he doesn't know where he is in the hand and fears Hero will win his whole stack or lose only the current pot . . . . . villain folds which we don't see till the rabbit hunt at the end, but was rather well defined in the speech.

Everyone else folds to OMC who tables and says, "you have to be beating that", and folds.

The dealer runs a rabbit hunt. Final board, < >

BB wants to know if Hero had the . We ask around the table, no one claims the or any heart for that matter. Hero shrugs and says, " looks like your was good.

Whew, dodged a bullet there -=- DrStrange

 

[Ben]

Once hero catches up to the $45 bet he would be jamming $613 into $342 - any significant raise will more or less commit him anyway. I wouldn't do that in your average casino $1/$2 game, but in YOUR game with YOUR villains, the dynamic and risks/rewards of such a move are quite a bit different.

 

[xt!]

Ben nailed it. Poker is mostly about adjusting to situations, I would adjust to your game by forcing chips into the middle with most made hands in most scenarios.

 

[Leonard]

I agree with Ben and xt!

This is not your average 1/2 game, where there is no way you get multiway action on a $42 (total) preflop bet. Especially with the holdings that you are likely up against.