short handed - JJ in late position (1 Viewer)

[Anthony Martino]

What if villain has a club draw? There is value in getting that hand to fold - or charging villain a price to draw.

What hand do you put Villian on, on the flop, that calls your bet, improves to a flush draw on the turn and then folds to a bet?

 

[DrStrange]

I agree that villain is more likely to call a bet with such a hand rather than fold.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I still lean towards the "minimize losses" over "extract value" in this spot.

 

[Adam Crowley]

Not only that but you get more info on river. Plus you are still getting two streets of value regardless.

What approximate range are you putting villain on? If it is something similar to my range hands with a flushdraw make up a smaller % of hands than hands that have us crushed.

 

[DrStrange]

*** At last, the river! ***

Hero checks. $53.75 in the pot, it is heads up. Hero holds with $95.50 effective stacks

River is: < >

Villain checks. Should Hero check behind or bet? If betting how much?

 

[Anthony Martino]

Hero should bet for value. If villain had the flush they'd be betting that river given the turn action. KQ seems unlikely given the flop action. Bet $45

 

[DrStrange]

What hands do we think villain could hold that would call an 83% pot sized bet given there is four to a straight and three to a flush on the board?

 

[Anthony Martino]

What hands do we think villain could hold that would call an 83% pot sized bet given there is four to a straight and three to a flush on the board?

A two pair hand like 9T, a smaller set.

 

[DrStrange]

I was thinking exactly TT and T9 for the primary range and occasionally smaller sets that slow played and got cold feet.

 

[Adam Crowley]

I was going to add TT to my initial range but given that it didn't change the action I did not see the point, but it actually makes a lot of sense.

Given our line I think we can extract a little more value on the river as well. Following the range I posted earlier the only hands villain is worried that we have is exactly Axcc and an 8x hand. Both of them are unlikely and I think if villain is calling $25 they would call up to $50 with their whole range

 

[chipjoker]

FOLD JJ, FOLD FOLD FOLD......

Thats how you play Jacks...

 

[MoscowRadio]

My initial thought, given Villain's donk-bet on the flop and then calling the raise was 88, TT, or A9. Once Villain calls the turn I'm also putting TJc in her range.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Unfortunately, there are 4 cards to a straight on the board, on top of the flush potential, so we're far more likely than usual to only get action when we're beat. There are also a lot more ways to make the hands that beat us (an 8 or any 2 clubs) than the hands that we beat that could conceivably call (all require 2 specific ranks for two pair or a set). She'll probably also fold one pair or less, so nothing is gained by betting in any of those cases. I doubt we can bluff her off a straight either.

Maybe, against some opponents with whom I have a narrow read, I'll go for value here, but Villain's range is wide open—especially since we didn't bet the turn. She probably doesn't have a flush, but she could easily have that one-card straight and is checking out of fear of the flush (or slyly value-checking it).

Check behind, be grateful for the free showdown. If we lose some value to a weirdly played set, so be it.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Oh yea of little faith ***

Hero decides to go for a modest value bet - $22.50, which villain snap calls.

Hero holds top set and villain has . . . . . . .



wait for it . . . . . .



Villain tables , fifth pair, saying "I thought you had AK"

Yeah - just the way Hero envisioned it.

Personally I think Hero should have bet the turn and charged for the club draw (assuming villain has a club)

 

[Jimulacrum]

Nice. Not only did you win a nice pot, but you also now know you can value-bet a ridiculous range of hands on the end.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

ABC TAG??? I think maybe your descriptions are slightly off. ..

 

[DrStrange]

Hero had been tabling a lot of air all night. Hero was everyone's punching bag except for one big hand.

Villain went with her read and chased Hero down expecting to see ace high. She normally doesn't call it off so light be this hand she did.

And I did note in her villain's read that she gets a little sticky post flop. I think she might have folded to a turn bet.

 

[upNdown]

If I called all that with a pair of 6's, I certainly wouldn't show them.

 

[cgraham86]

If I called all that with a pair of 6's, I certainly wouldn't show them.

This. Not only is she calling then super excited to see if she won she's not even concerned with her table image. However, a good read on the turn may have given you a chance to get another bet in.

 

[Adam Crowley]

It is still a two street hand. I don't think you get a call here on the turn from 66 but even if you do there is no hero calling the river. Having said that given how many hands we get value from on the turn vs this new range I think we should probably bet turn preparing to check back all rivers that don't improve our hand

 

[DrStrange]

I agree - Hero bets the turn and checks behind the river unimproved.

 

[Adam Crowley]

Now that the hand is finished. You mentioned that JJ is a 2% hand short handed.

Did you work this out yourself or see it somewhere?

I have always worked my opening ranges out based on removing a position from the table for each player that is missing. For example from an 8 handed table to a 6 max table my UTG range is the same as MP2 on an 8 handed table.

I think there would be far more value in adjusting the weight of each hand but I have never explored this before. Do you have any suggestions?

 

[DrStrange]

Back in the day when I played online poker I have all sorts of tables taped to the side of the filing cabinet. A few were my own work product but most were from other people / other sources. [ credit to Grinders Warehouse as the best source, though his on-line poker blog is long gone. ]

JJ+, AKs are the top 2% of hands based on their chances to win at a ten player table. As the table shrinks, pairs rise in value a little, as do plain old high cards. Conversely connecting and/or suited cards fall in value as the table gets shorter.

I learned a lot of discipline about early position folding by drawing up when to fold / when to play charts. And not just for hold'em, but other games. I know I have those charts somewhere, but I can't find them right now.

 

[thorwilliam]

If I called all that with a pair of 6's, I certainly wouldn't show them.

Showing the pair of 6's was the only reasonable thing she did in this hand.

 

[thorwilliam]

Showing the pair of 6's was the only reasonable thing she did in this hand.

Well almost..