Sick spot with Pocket kings (1 Viewer)

[colter ripton]

2/5 NLH

Hero has about 2000 dollars in stack Hero started the day with 800 dollars and has picked his spots well.... and played mostly tight..... Villain has been aggressive pre-flop since he sat down a couple hours ago, and has had success. Villan started with 2000 and has about 3500 dollars behind. Yes the 2/5 game plays big where i play.

After a couple limps Villain raises to 35 dollars in middle position. Hero is sitting to his immediate left and looks down at two black kings. Everyone knows the move here is to re raise so ill spare us the discussion on that and say that hero raises to 115 dollars. The action is folded around to Villain who calls pretty quickly.

The flop comes out Ace King 10 with two spades............. Villain checks and the action is on Hero.

Whats the play......

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Don't slow play big hands. Lead out for $160.

 

[MacGrad]

I'm thinking we have the best hand right now, but there are too many ways this goes sideways.

I'm with Chippy -- bet 60%-80% of the pot, and try to take it down now.

 

[Gary Vroman]

I play it safe. With a straight and flush draw on the board. Check to see what turn is.

 

[stocky]

I play it safe. With a straight and flush draw on the board. Check to see what turn is.

Not sure if serious.

 

[stocky]

Middle set with blockers to the nut straight and nut flush. I agree with betting here about 70% pot, I can't see any Ace folding flop and any hand that does beat us is a cooler.

 

[bentax1978]

Not sure if serious.

I was wondering the same thing; I'll give him the benefit of the doubt because he appears to be a NY Giants fan.

I'm betting $200.

 

[colter ripton]

Lol..... not sure if gary is serious either....but hero would never slow play here...... after thinking for a minute Hero bets out 215 dollars.... slightly less than the size of the pot. (240ish)...... here is where it get a little dicey..... villain thinks for an unusually long time and smooth calls the 215.

The next card out is the 8 of spades........villain checks again.....action is on Hero...... 670 in the pot

 

[Gary Vroman]

Ok let me ask you? With the range we put the villain on... How many of those does he fold to a $150 to $250 bet on flop. To me not many if any. So why not get a free card

 

[bergs]

Ok let me ask you? With the range we put the villain on... How many of those does he fold to a $150 to $250 bet on flop. To me not many if any. So why not get a free card

We don't want a free card - we want to tax that draw back to the Stone Age.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

$325 on the turn. Even if he has you beat at this point, which I doubt, you have a metric shit-tons of outs, so snap call a jam.

 

[colter ripton]

Hero is hoping that Villain has ace king or pocket 10s...... if this is the case he stands to win a very big pot..... hero doesn't mind a flush draw coming along if he is going to pay a pot size bet to see the turn....... There is only Really one hand here hero is worried about and that is queen jack.....although it seems unlikely with pre flop action hero knows it to be in Villains pre flop range. Hero is always betting here and making a pretty big bet..... 8 of spades on the turn changes things.........now he has to worry about a flush getting there but also picked up a draw to the nut flush........ Villain checks again..... now what

 

[MacGrad]

I think we're still good -- if we're behind, we've got 9 outs to the nut flush and 1 for quads. We've got another 9 outs to a full house (though I'll discount the 3 remaining aces heavily and a bit for the remaining 10s and 8s -- let's say 4-5 implied outs).

That's 15 outs (discounted) to the best hand and 19 outs in total... and that's if we're behind. Add on the probability that our 3 Kings are still the best hand...

Bet $500.

 

[colter ripton]

Alright I agree that we are still probably good here. And I know that we have a shit ton of outs if we are not. But I also know Villain to be a very good and tricky player and I didn't like that drawn out smooth call on the flop. Villain called the flop with something and it is very likely that he would have check raised with a hand like pocket 10s or ace king or even ace 10.........Hero would love to see another spade hit the river or the board to pair........ Hero thinks about it and ultimately decides to check behind....... the river is a complete blank......5 of hearts I believe........ Villain leads out for 475 dollars.......Hero believes at this point he is beat, but can he ever really get away from it...........

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

How about shipping it? You have the king of spades, he can't have the nuts. And if you did in fact hit the nut flush on the turn you'd probably check behind on the turn, so it's believable. Unless you're giving off tells of course.

 

[colter ripton]

Well I'll just finish it up.... lol I'm impatient and I would rather discuss the complete hand I guess.........

I think about my options after the river bet.....I don't think shipping it all in would get a fold from very many hands that have me beat. Maybe queen jack or a small flush......
I think it is possible that I have the best hand..... Maybe he slow played 10s or AK or maybe he even has a 10 or even ace queen .........
So I decide to call the 475 and Villian turns over queen jack of spades...... which makes me sick......

I was beat the entire way...... and I think I lost about the minimum....... I turned over my Ks and Villian remarked that he had no idea I was that strong.......he put me on ace queen.......

If only that spade, 8, or 10 had come....... I am definatly shipping and most likely doubling up.......

Really just a cooler and my read on Villian saved me the rest of my stack there I believe........

I think that calling there is the right play most of the time........I am almost never folding there, and shipping it only occasionally when I feel strongly that I have the best hand.

 

[MacGrad]

Alright I agree that we are still probably good here. And I know that we have a shit ton of outs if we are not. But I also know Villain to be a very good and tricky player and I didn't like that drawn out smooth call on the flop. Villain called the flop with something and it is very likely that he would have check raised with a hand like pocket 10s or ace king or even ace 10.........Hero would love to see another spade hit the river or the board to pair........ Hero thinks about it and ultimately decides to check behind....... the river is a complete blank......5 of hearts I believe........ Villain leads out for 475 dollars.......Hero believes at this point he is beat, but can he ever really get away from it...........

(Revised after posting -- you finished the hand while I was working on this)

If the river blanks, the only hands you've lost to are AA, any QJ, or Qx spades... but I can't see Villain playing any of those hands as you've described him:

* Would Villain check-raise any 'monster' hand on the flop (AK, TT, AT -- resulting in two pair or a set of 10s) and not check-raise with a set of Aces? He'd want to punish you for a flush draw, not give you free cards to get it.

* If Villain has QJ, he's made his hand on the flop BUT he's got to be worried about the flush draw. Even if it's QJ spades, he knows the spade King is out there, so why give a free card and allow a draw to give him the 2nd-nut flush? If it's QJo, why give the flush draws on the turn and river for free?

* If Villain has Qx spades, why is he checking on the turn and allowing the draw? His hand is made on the turn, and he's got to know there are so many ways for it to turn 2nd-best.

Pot is about $1150, and it's costing you $475 to call -- approx 2.5:1 on your money... if you lose, you're still at about $1200.

Call... and congratulate him on playing his hand so well if he has anything other than AA (because you're bound to win your money back if he keeps using that style of play).

<Added>
I'm stunned at how Villain played his hand.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero needs to separate the results from the optimal way to play the hand. Losing the minimum is not always the metric that tells us we took the best line.

I think Hero missed out on a big chunk of value vs villain's range by checking the turn. (obviously not in this specific hand.) I wonder if this hand would play differently at lower stakes, say $0.25/$0.50 and $200 stacks?

I don't believe Hero has any bluffing value holding the naked unless Hero has a wild enough reputation at the table where he might have plausibly three-bet preflop with or

 

[colter ripton]

I agree everything about the hand seems odd........

except if he had exactly QJ of spades.....if I am in his position and I hit a flop that hard with queen jack of spades I'm probably checking it twice to the agressor......I am not too worried about king X of spades because of the pre flop action......... on the river I don't want to see another spade......... but the pre flop raiser bet the size of the pot twice and on the turn when I make the 2nd nut flush I'm checking it to him again most of the time.....leading out here would not be a bad option either, but if he puts me on a big ace he doesn't want to scare me off.......

my read on him was just a feeling that he had a monster.....I obviously knew he didnt have the nuts because i had the king of spades, but i thought he had close to it........he played it a little slower and a little more deliberate than I had seen him in other pots........and I had an uneasy feeling ever since the slow smooth call on the flop.

I am never folding the river there because there are too many times when I have the best hand and at 2.5 to 1 I pretty much have to call.....

 

[colter ripton]

I agree with Dr strange that it is not the optimal way to play that hand in most situations.........

And yes if there was less money in play it is possible that hero bets heavily on the turn and hopes to hit one of his out just in case.........

I try not to be results oriented when I play but at the same time you have to trust your reads........ if I feel like the guy has me beat I am not going to try and inflate the pot.......I am not folding either because my reads are not always perfect........but I am goin to try and control the pot when i feel like i am beat.......even if I am a winner in that situation most of the time.

 

[DrStrange]

I think villain played his side of the hand well. It was totally reasonable to put Hero on AA / KK / AK and expect a turn bet which could be check raised. Villain took a calculated risk that Hero would not both check behind on the turn and then bink the river.

While I respect a table read, it doesn't help us making decisions in a strategy thread. There are many times in a player's life when that little voice in the head makes him/her take a different line than what might seem best.

 

[colter ripton]

I agree once again..... I believe Villian played it well.......

I also think that a turn bet here is usually the best way to go......

I really don't mind a check on the turn here either though..... even without a read..... it is a pretty coordinated board and the flush just got there........

If you bet the turn and get check raised all in you have to call......

Why not take a free card here and see if you can make the nuts......

What draws could Villian have that you are worried about? If you have the best hand at this point it is very likely that you will have the best hand after the river.

I guess what makes the check a bad play is that you are usually good on the turn, and you should be trying to get profit from your big hands?

I still don't mind the check though......

 

[DrStrange]

I thought about this hand overnight and want to change my mind - I think Hero's line is solid and villain made a mistake checking the turn.

Preflop betting has greatly restricted Hero's range, depending on his table image. Hero can't have a flush even if Villain doesn't hold the . Given villain does hold that card he should be value betting with stacks this deep. Lots of people can't let sets go, villain should be testing Hero.

I am having trouble figuring what hands could villain hold that lose to Hero's set but call a stiff turn bet. Maybe AQ with the or AJ with the (but if villain is ranging Hero with a tight 3-bet range, absolutely not) The only solid contender for a thinking villain to stack off 400bb is bottom set, and even there a skilled villain could be highly alert to trouble.

Hero could expect to fold out better hands with a betting barrage - if and only if villain doesn't think deeply. But a thinking villain isn't fearing Hero's range, the villain is thinking that Hero is over playing top or second set. And in this case, villain knows Hero is not playing or a worse Kx suited.

Hero does well to take the free card and then bluff catch the river. Villain misses a significant value opportunity by taking a tricky trappy line.

 

[MacGrad]

Nobody should disagree that villain is making a mistake checking the turn -- if Villain feels Hero is overplaying top/2nd set, then he's making an even bigger mistake by giving Hero a free card on the turn.

Even if Villain is giving Hero credit for AK (one of the few hands that Hero would reraise in middle position), he has to think there's a possibility Hero has and that a 4th spade will kill his hand. Why give a free card in this situation? I'd be making Hero pay to draw to the 4-flush on board.

 

[colter ripton]

If Villian leads out on the flop he gets hero's stack........I think that is the biggest mistake on either side.....

Yes hero will fold queens or jacks, and just call AQ......

But if villian thinks about it, and puts Hero on the correct 3 bet range pre flop from middle position...... I think he has to lead out.

Aces, kings, or ace king will invariably raise the bet on the flop, and then all the chips go in the middle.

 

[mummel]

This thread game me an ulcer. So many $$$ changing hands

 

[onerand]

You can bet fold the turn. Checking is ok with the Ks. I would not check two red kings.