To check or not to check, that is the question. 5/10/(20) NLHE, 8 players (1 Viewer)

[bentax1978]

I'll preface this discussion by saying I don't know if I played this hand particularly well, but my main question is with regard to my action on the turn.

The game is 5/10/(20 straddle) NLHE. I sat down at this table about an hour before this hand after my 2/5 table broke up. Actually it ultimately broke up because half the people moved over to this 5/10 table, leaving just myself and three others at the 2/5 table. I ended up playing 4 handed, then 3 handed, and then heads up for almost an hour because I wasn't quite ready to go home, but also wasn't necessarily looking to take a seat at the 5/10 given that I wasn't intending to stay late and I was already a little tired. But after the heads up part ended, I was still in the mood to play and decided to sit at the 5/10 with my existing stack (a little over $1000, I decided not to top-off, which I could have up to $2500).

The players at this table are mostly skilled played. I've played with a few of them a once or two, but most of them play with each other very regularly. So I'm a bit of an outsider in the group, which is fine. The villain in this hand is someone who was at my 2/5 table before he moved over here. He's an ok player, not particularly aggressive, and made several questionable (and costly) plays during the night, mostly overplaying his hands and making some very marginal calls. In the hour or so I've been at the 5/10 table with him, he hasn't been very involved in any memorable hands, though in part because I think we left for an orbit to smoke. His stack is sitting at a little over $2000, but I don't know for sure if he won some hands since moving from the 2/5 table or added on to his stack when he moved.

Anyway, on to the hand.

$20 straddle is on.

Hero ($1100) is UTG and opens for $60 with . Folds around to Villain ($2100) in MP who calls. Folds around, two players to the flop.

Flop ($155) is

Hero leads out for $150, Villain takes a few seconds to think and then calls the $150.

Turn ($455) is

What should Hero do?

 

[krafticus]

puke and check...??

 

[bentax1978]

puke and check...??

In that specific order?

 

[toynoob]

You can't really bet here can you? The board is wetter than a 22 year old on her wedding night.

 

[krafticus]

In that specific order?

The puke might be a tell ... so, I'd go in the other order.

Honestly, I think if we lead out, we are laying up a softball (read: Beachball) for him to put a good sized re-raise in. with $455 in the pot, I assume if you bet, it will be on the 180-250 sized bet, which would give our villain the right size to shove. If that happens, I am not sure you can call and hope your set is good on that board. I'd check, hope for a bet of <= $200 (or a check), and re-evaluate the river.

Now, I'm a terrible player, so take all of that with a grain of salt.

Mark

 

[markleteenie]

Wow, terrible turn for your hand, so I would say check/call or check/fold, depending on the amount.

If you had the nut flush draw and it made it now, would you also check and slowplay?
It seems like a bet here would most often be for protection and not value.

 

[Highli99]

That was the worst possible card in the deck. Check and hope his bet is small enough to justify a call and see the river. If the board pairs you will be golden. If not, check and hope for showdown.

 

[RainmanTrail]

Not much you can do here. You just have to check. If he puts in a sizeable bet just fold. If he doesn't, then pray for a board pair and hope Jesus/Muhammad/Oprah/Zeus hears you.

 

[1A25R]

bet $350

 

[Rhodeman77]

I’m betting $350. The 9 is ugly, but it isn’t the worst card. It is much more likely to give him 2 pair than complete a straight. And if he had a real monster like J10hh he should have raised the flop. Even a hand like AXhh may have put in a raise in the flop.

Keep the pressure on him. And if he has a straight he has to worry you could have a flush so isn’t likely to raise you back.

If he made a flush and jams I’m calling off since we are now pot committed betting the $350

 

[Beakertwang]

So villian flat calls a small raise in position. He's just as likely to have 10s9s (for instance) he is to have AhJh, or any suited A. As far as he knows, you were c-betting the flop with the nut flush draw, and you caught. If I'm the villain and you check the turn, I'm putting in a strong bet with just about any two cards.

Is my thinking off?

Edit: I was typing this as @Rhodeman77 posted. Great minds think alike, and I get lucky once in a while.

 

[bentax1978]

I'll add that my gut feeling on the flop after I bet the $150 was that Villain was contemplating a raise, not a fold, when he took a few seconds to think before calling.

 

[BGinGA]

Check/call, unless he shoves.

 

[JustinInMN]

What do we know about villian?

How many Jacks can he really have here after calling a 3x raise pf and pot size flop bet?

How many hearts hands can he have with the Qh on board? Can he have AhKh without reraising preflop?

There's a decent chance villian hates this card as much as hero. That said, betting doesn't make a lot of sense here. If villian also hates this card we really can't get called by much worse. We block the two pairs with queens, the small two pairs are probably going to fold and even the small sets might think about folding. The only thing I can see calling a hero bet here is the single Ah or Kh. It's tough for villian to call with those cards without also having the case queen. Maybe he could call a flop bet with a ten?

Check and call pretty wide depending on size and how you evaluate straights and flushes versus bluffs in villian's range.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I also like a bigger preflop raise. With the straddle on we only have 55 BB effective now, I want to get as much money in as quick as possible since we are now playing a short stack game.

I would like to open to $75 or $80. Making our flop bet more like $200. Making the turn an auto jam.

 

[bentax1978]

What do we know about villian?

Not a lot beyond what I mentioned. He was actually on the more passive side during the time I played with him at the previous table. He would stick around and over play/value his hands a bit, making some questionable bets/calls on later streets. I also mentioned in a subsequent comment not included in the OP that I felt his pause after my flop bet was one of him considering a raise instead of a call, not a fold instead of a call. I believe he liked the flop. I didn't get any read off him (not that I expected to) when the turn came out.

 

[ChaosRock]

I like the check/call line also. He might check back all the hands you beat, and you might pick up some bluffs trying to rep a flush or a straight. Not sure how much value you can get from worse, other than sets and 2P, maybe a pair with the Ah. It's close and I don't mind the betting either ($200ish).

 

[JustinInMN]

Even if Villian has a straight or flush, no guarantee he will bet it after hero checks. Free draw would be a coup here .

 

[Rhodeman77]

Don’t we want to charge him though if he has the Ah in his hand?

And if he just jams after we check are we calling or folding?

 

[bentax1978]

Even if Villian has a straight or flush, no guarantee he will bet it after hero checks. Free draw would be a coup here .

True, and there are a lot of other hands that Villain would likely check to my check with. Hands like AK with one heart, two pair, a set.

 

[bentax1978]

And if he just jams after we check are we calling or folding?

If he jammed after a check, it would be about $800 to win $1250, slightly better than 3:2. So at that point, depending on how likely we think his jam is with a draw or inferior hand than top set, it's a tough call to make just to try and fill up.

 

[JustinInMN]

He would stick around and over play/value his hands a bit, making some questionable bets/calls on later streets.

Hmm this might be a reason to bet. I guess how questionable can he call? Is he dumping two small pair here?

I felt his pause after my flop bet was one of him considering a raise instead of a call, not a fold instead of a call. I believe he liked the flop

Interesting. Does a flush draw count as liking the flop to him? Otherwise it seems difficult to like the flop and the turn.

Probably unfair to ask some of these questions back because you know the result. But I guess I am just saying what I would think in this spot.

Anyway I think we are in bluff catching mode here unless we improve or face a bet that cannot be a bluff. The value hands I might assign to a looser villian having flatted pre and calling pot on the flop really are Ah-Jh, Ah-Th, Kh-Jh, Kh-Th, Jh-Th, JJ, QJ, QT, KJ other, TT, 99, 88.

Your knowledge of villian's pf strategy may alter that list.

Also how many of these might he bet on the turn?

I really can't put villian on too many two pairs or small flushes without being crazy loose against pf raises.

Touch choice, but I still lean toward check and call wide unless we're sure villian's never bluffing/overvaluing something hero beats.

 

[bentax1978]

Interesting. Does a flush draw count as liking the flop to him? Otherwise it seems difficult to like the flop and the turn.

Yes, flopping a flush draw (possibly with a pair or straight draw as well) would definitely be part of liking the flop. So would flopping two pair, a set, or even top pair with a backdoor flush (less likely given that I have top set).

But there are definitely scenarios where I think he likes both the flop and the turn, and some where he likes the flop but not the turn.

 

[JustinInMN]

Don’t we want to charge him though if he has the Ah in his hand?

And if he just jams after we check are we calling or folding?

To me it just seems so hard for villian to have the Ah on the flop unless he also has the case queen or maybe a ten. Maybe Ako if he's loose, but the he would also have to have AK without three betting preflop. AJ seems like a tough call on the flop unless they are both hearts. And I might assume villian is going to raise and call off on the flop with that draw.

 

[JustinInMN]

Actually all AJ make a lot of sense as well for the flopped double gutter.

 

[krafticus]

Actually all AJ make a lot of sense as well for the flopped double gutter.

I think pocket 8's and 10's might take that same line too..

 

[Rhodeman77]

I think pocket 8's and 10's might take that same line too..

Very few people slow play flopped sets on this connected of a board. I would expect them to raise looking to get it in vs AA and KK or AKhh before a scare cards shuts down the action.

 

[bentax1978]

I see perfectly valid arguments for either a check or a $300-350 bet. I was torn between these two options, but ultimately decided to check the turn. Villain, somewhat surprisingly, checked behind me as well.

So how does this alter how we range his possible hands going into the river?

 

[markleteenie]

Very interesting, I'm thinking he has one heart trying to freeroll, or possibly he's laying the trap.
I'm thinking AhQx or pocket Jacks (1 heart).

 

[Rhodeman77]

I see perfectly valid arguments for either a check or a $300-350 bet. I was torn between these two options, but ultimately decided to check the turn. Villain, somewhat surprisingly, checked behind me as well.

So how does this alter how we range his possible hands going into the river?

Value bet just about every river. Bet the $350 we should have bet on the turn.

I feel he is made, but not as strong. 2 pair or pair plus a heart most likely. 10 9, 8 9. 10 J is possible too and checked back scared of the flush possiblity.