To check or not to check, that is the question. 5/10/(20) NLHE, 8 players (1 Viewer)

[BGinGA]

Only reason I'd consider betting the turn is that there aren't very many river cards I'll be happy to see......

 

[JustinInMN]

I see perfectly valid arguments for either a check or a $300-350 bet. I was torn between these two options, but ultimately decided to check the turn. Villain, somewhat surprisingly, checked behind me as well.

So how does this alter how we range his possible hands going into the river?

Not much, villian could still be slow playing a monster, he could have a good hand hero can beat. I think there is a good argument to check every villian hand I have mentioned, some hero beats, some he doesn't. Villian could have a straight but is also fearful of the flush.

I think this result benefits hero in all situations except for villian possibly having the Ah or Kh without a flush yet. Hero will not lose two streets of value when beat in a hand hero really wants to show down. That seems like a win regardless of the result.

 

[krafticus]

I see perfectly valid arguments for either a check or a $300-350 bet. I was torn between these two options, but ultimately decided to check the turn. Villain, somewhat surprisingly, checked behind me as well.

So how does this alter how we range his possible hands going into the river?

J 10hh would be checking the turn, and hoping and praying you hit the river. KJ also might slow down on that turn, fearing that you might have the flush.
Of course, you can throw in AQhx and potentially AK in that mix too. I suck at ranging players hands though.

I'd also add in Q 10, J 10, KQ into the mix as well.

 

[Highli99]

His check doesn’t really change my range analysis. Made, drawing, and dead hands could all be checking.

 

[bentax1978]

J 10hh would be checking the turn

I actually think would bet something in position on the turn, likely a reasonable amount that I would have to call with a either a made hand or a hand that could potentially improve and ultimately pay off the SF with his stack. I think checking the SF on the turn with so much left (to win) in my stack ($800) would be a mistake.

 

[Rhodeman77]

If Villian has a flush he should be betting, even small to extract value from sets, 2 pairs, straight and to protect against Hero having AAhx and KKhx hands. The only made hands villain should be checking here are some straights and J10hh since he is hoping Hero makes whatever he is drawing to and will be able to bet the river in position anyways.

 

[krafticus]

I actually think would bet something in position on the turn, likely a reasonable amount that I would have to call with a either a made hand or a hand that could potentially improve and ultimately pay off the SF with his stack. I think checking the SF on the turn with so much left (to win) in my stack ($800) would be a mistake.

See ... I suck at the pokerz..

 

[bentax1978]

If Villian has a flush he should be betting, even small to extract value from sets, 2 pairs, straight and to protect against Hero having AAhx and KKhx hands. The only made hands villain should be checking here are some straights and J10hh since he is hoping Hero makes whatever he is drawing to and will be able to bet the river in position anyways.

I agree that his check on the turn made the likelihood of him having a flush considerably less.

 

[bentax1978]

We can still discuss his range further, and in the context of what my river move should be.

River pairs the board.

- -

What now?

 

[Rhodeman77]

The more I think about Villian should be betting all of his straights too.

What flushes should Hero have here? AKhh and maybe AJhh. There aren’t any other hands that make sense that Hero would raise UTG and bet the flop but now check with?

Hero has so many other strong hands that a straight are beating. All sets, over pairs with a heart, AhQx. Way more made hands than the 2 possible flushes that would beat Villain.

 

[BGinGA]

We can still discuss his range further, and in the context of what my river move should be.

River pairs the board.

- -

What now?

Crap. May be boat over boat (great) or boat vs quads (not so great). I bet about 1/2 pot, calling all shoves.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I was typing as you posted results. I’m still betting $350. Hoping to get raised by a weaker boat and called by straights and flushes.

 

[JustinInMN]

Gotta bet now. He is now checking anything we beat behind except maybe the nut flush and the smaller full houses.

We can get called by a flush, we can get called by a straight. We can get called by 9s full, maybe tens full (if that's a pf flat.)

He'd really have to decide to turn a straight into a bluff or just have a stone bluff himself for hero to get any value by checking.

Sizing is an interesting question. I might go small to ensure some value from the straight. If villian only had two pair without a q, we can almost forget about a call now.
Or just go big to target the flush he somehow checked on the turn and risk losing the straights and weaker.

Bet seems clear, right size seems difficult. If hero has bluffs on this river what would be the sizing? Maybe that's the best answer to this hand to balance a bluff sizing.

 

[krafticus]

This feels like an 88 situation that you can't get away from... from the way the thread was posted, if you would have fired on the turn, he could have folded.

Either way, I'm firing 200-250 on the river, and hoping that he goes over the top. I mean, there are only 2 hands that felt us, right?

 

[1A25R]

In such configuration I look to vilans eyes while dealer put the river card. Do you have any body language expression?
You still loosing to JTh. He didn't value bet the turn. I shove

 

[bentax1978]

I was typing as you posted results. I’m still betting $350. Hoping to get raised by a weaker boat and called by straights and flushes.

This was precisely what I would have done 95% of the time, and perhaps in hindsight still should have done here as well.

However, for better or worse I was watching him very closely as the river was put out. I was nearly 100% sure he liked the river, and that was before I even knew what the river was.

At this point I'm almost 100% sure he has a smaller boat (yay!) or quads (boo!). However, I'm not concerned about the quads in the context of determining my bet size because I am both 100% betting the river and 100% calling a shove. So if he has quads I'm getting stacked no matter what, no way around that.

So now in my mind I start to put less emphasis on making a value bet that a straight or flush can call, and more emphasis on getting as much money in as I feel his smaller boat can call. I decide that he's not folding a boat to a shove, and I end up deciding to do exactly that.

I announce all-in, and he jumps up and snap calls before I can even push a single chip forward. In that instant I thought he must have hit the quads (or the possible turned that the straight-flush) and I just calmly turned over my QQ fully expecting that I might have lost. Instead it was his excitement that was immediately tempered as he had neither quads nor the SF. He had TT and my queens full held.


The hand worked out for me (in this case), but I do question my decision to check the turn. The river shove was also questionable, and maybe in the end was likely moot in this case since he likely would have shoved anyway. But since the goal is to play these hand optimally, not based on the results, I feel there was room for improvement in the way I played this one.

 

[JustinInMN]

You still loosing to JTh. He didn't value bet the turn. I shove

Shoving seems bad because hero is now giving villian a chance to hero-fold a flush when hero would call a smaller bet. Villian really can't have that many smaller full houses given the pf and flop action. Calling a pot flop bet with 98 somehow?

If hero has bluffs on this river what would be the sizing? Maybe that's the best answer to this hand to balance a bluff sizing.

I thought I would add to that. Perhaps hero gets here with ,. C bets the flop with the gutter, two overs and backdoor, checks when he improves to nut flush draw and bricks.

Hero decides villian may be folding one pair hands here up to maybe a jack and decides to bluff this river. What would be the size?

 

[bentax1978]

In such configuration I look to vilans eyes while dealer put the river card. Do you have any body language expression?
You still loosing to JTh. He didn't value bet the turn. I shove

I was typing as you replied, but yes, I was 100% watching the Villains eyes as the river was dealt, and in the end also shoved. Still not sure shoving was the right move (probably wasn't), despite it working out, but I'll leave that up for additional discussion.

 

[1A25R]

He had Ah 8d?

 

[Moxie Mike]

Let's establish one truth here. You've flopped top set on a highly connected board. You are absolutely going to play a big pot here if you get action.

I would probably bet more on the flop due to the volume of unpleasant turn cards that could hit. The is kind of worst case scenario, but it's just one of about 21 cards that are not awesome. I''d prefer to see a bet of $200 or so, which if called puts $550ish in the pot.

It's worth pointing out that there are still 20 river cards we won't love either. Another heart, jack, king or even a 6 or 7 is going to be at least a little uncomfortable.

I think the real question is are you ever folding top set in this or virtually any situation?

If the answer is no - as it is with most players - then you might as well max out the aggression as early as possible.

I would open-shove the turn. If you've bet the flop as described above it's not an ultra ridiculous over-bet of the pot. Your stack is going in anyway, and while it's reasonable to say you're only getting calls from hands that beat you, there's probably also a small chance you get a jack to fold... and you've got 10 outs if you're behind. It's also slightly possible you might get a call from a few hands you're ahead of - like , or smaller sets.

 

[JustinInMN]

Wow, I think you were fortunate here.

The turn play is fine, in retrospect he has the one pip down hand from you exactly and he had to flat pf and flop to have it. Two plays I would say are non-standard. Otherwise I think it's hard to get called on this turn and I like the check.

I get the live read helps, but on the river I think if you still bet a normal amount you get it all on the river anyway. But you put villian in a position to hero fold a flush in case your read is wrong. In this case you were right and it probably didn't matter either way.

 

[bentax1978]

He had Ah 8d?

He had TT, flopped second set and rivered second boat.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I can see a strong case for either betting or checking the turn. I lean toward checking because you open his betting range way up to include all kinds of two pair, bluffs, and smaller sets. You're never betting him off a flush on that turn. I can see a case for betting based on the possibility of getting a straight to fold, but checking wins over turning the hand into a bluff.

Shoving the river is a great move. You look so weak going into that river because your line looks like you're trying to steal the pot after your c-bet failed and opponent showed weakness on the turn. You can expect to often get calls from some flushes and straights with that play as well.

Crap. May be boat over boat (great) or boat vs quads (not so great). I bet about 1/2 pot, calling all shoves.

I fail to understand why catching top boat on the river invokes a "Crap" response from you.

 

[1A25R]

Well done sir!

 

[ChaosRock]

He had Ah 8d?

Ah8x has to bet the turn, no? Hardly any showdown value but drawing to the nuts.

 

[bentax1978]

Shoving the river is a great move. You look so weak going into that river because your line looks like you're trying to steal the pot after your c-bet failed and opponent showed weakness on the turn. You can expect to often get calls from some flushes and straights with that play as well.

The looking weak certainly crossed my mind too, and played into my decision. And even though at that point I was pretty sure he didn't have a straight or flush, I agree it's possible we might have got a call from them with the shove given how the hand played out.

 

[bentax1978]

I fail to understand why catching top boat on the river invokes a "Crap" response from you.

Given that the 8 on the river significantly helped my hand and only helped one possible hand in the villain's range to beat me, I agree that "crap" was the absolute last thought I had when I saw the river. It was more along the lines of a loud "FUCK YEAH" in my head.

 

[1A25R]

@ChaosRock
It is my guess based on vilain description of his play. Observations made on 2/5 table.
TT is even worse imo as he does not know where he is, twice is second nuts, and just call flat as he believes that he got the winning hand.
A non believer. Hard wake-up call.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Very shocked he only called the flop with TT, this hand should have had all the money in on the flop!!

I don’t love the river jam. I don’t see many JX hands calling there. Nut flush would call and all the boats. But I don’t see any full house only calling a value bet either. I think they all jam if Hero bets $300-$400.

So we give the straights a way to fold, probably make more money from the nut flush that would just call and is a wash vs other full houses. But what would AQ do? I think AQ calls a value bet too but folds to a jam.

So overall, I think a value bet nets us more money in the long run.

 

[bentax1978]

Very shocked he only called the flop with TT, this hand should have had all the money in on the flop!!

I was too. I guess he was trying to be tricky, hoping I raised UTG with AA or KK and that a brick would hit the turn and I would lead out again.

As the hand played out, I actually thought he was going to raise on the flop, at which point I would have 100% shoved (and 99% would have been called).

I'll add that my gut feeling on the flop after I bet the $150 was that Villain was contemplating a raise, not a fold, when he took a few seconds to think before calling.