AKo on the button, short handed (2 Viewers)

[DrStrange]

Playing $0.25/$0.50 live, five handed. Special buy-in rules, $20 max buy in. It is very late in the session, many player have gone home. We have less than an hour left in the game. This game is highly social, with the buy-in structure the game is almost literally a cheese burger stakes game.

Cast of characters:

The small blind is playing $40 on a $100+ buy in. Hyper loose, weirdly split between calling station and overly aggressive. Has two betting tells, one is a micro bet that means weak or bad draw and an aggressive jam of an overly large bet that means bluffing/weak hand. You'll lose a lot of money to this villain on nights when he has the cards.

The big blind is playing $35, nearly break even. Almost tight, ultra passive. He is marginally profitable completely based on folding bad cards in a game where so many play every hand dealt. If he take any aggressive action, assume the worst because it will be close to that. (and yet, people still call! They will say, " I know he has the full house " and turn over trips etc to lose to the full house. Go figure? ) Perhaps the most passive player I ever encountered.

UTG is a semi-loose/ semi-aggressive almost TAG for this game. Break even due to flaws in her post flop game. Better shorthanded. She has $75.

MP is a semi-loose guy with $150+. He has two distinct layers to his game - if he has a top quality hand, he plays it TAG, if he has a top 35% hand that isn't premium he plays it loose/passive. This will carry on post flop. Generally works out to be a winning player.

Hero has the button with $60. Hero's style ramps up aggression as the game gets later and shorter handed. I don't know if people understand why, all they know is Hero gets awfully pushy late at night. One notable hand - Hero raised :3h preflop and ended up stacking the small blind early in the session on a K33 flop. Most times Hero raises now, someone asks if it is 93 again?

The hand:

Two limps bring us to Hero with . Action on Hero, limp, fold or raise? If raising how much?

OK, we know Hero should raise. Is there a place in Hero's range for a tricky limp? The normal raise from Hero tonight is $2.50 to $3, should he vary from that?

DrStrange

 

[detroitdad]

No tricky limp for me. Especially late in the night. I want to try and build a pot for when I hit the flop.

Raise to 2.75

 

[Anthony Martino]

Hero should not deviate, raise as usual, you will have position post-flop and you don't want to play AK against too many opponents, narrow that field down, build a pot with what is likely the best hand and enjoy position on your opposition.

 

[dickzapper]

Don't sleep on the tricky limp, I like the tricky limp. It's only five handed. Sounds like a limp could take the other players off assuming hero has an ace. Raise to a dollar and from the night history the players may assume . Then if you hit the flop, perhaps a gross overbet. Five-handed is key here.

 

[Trihonda]

I actually like a slightly oversized bet here. Late in the session, I'd bet $3.50. Make it look like an obvious button steal.

Slight overbet > normal bet < flat/trappy

 

[DrStrange]

*** Ok, easiest part over ***

Hero bets $2.75. SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP folds. Three way action, $9.25 in the pot.

(Hero is thinking that the players are already discounting Hero's raises to some extent due to the 93 hand earlier, so less need than normal to be tricky.)

Flop is:

SB bets $6, UTG folds. Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising, how much? $31.25 effective stacks.

SB's bet fits neither of his betting tells - not that they are exclusive (ie he might bluff a variety of ways but the big over-bet pair with a slam/slap of the chips is almost always a bluff).

DrStrange

 

[Trihonda]

Well, I can't put SB on JJ or QQ with flatting your bet pre. So only hands that beat you are AJ, QJ, AQ. KT. If you flat, will he bet again on the turn? At first, I was leaning towards flatting here (pot control) on a very coordinated board. We likely have the best hand now, but if a K hits, and our villain has QT or JT, we're in trouble. I might fire off a raise here to see where we're at.

Make it $15. If we get raised, we're beat. If we get called, my gut says he's got a piece of the pie, with a draw as well (but we're ahead for the moment). The turn will be very telling. If it's a K, , we're probably going to have to fold to any decent bet.

Of course, I could be wrong.

 

[atomiktoaster]

Put another $9 on top. If he's on ace rag, you'll shut it down now but there's RIO issues with letting him see more cards. Generally have the same thoughts as @Trihonda but he distilled them more effectively than I could.

 

[detroitdad]

My gut says to jam. They won't see that coming lol.......if we're not jamming. Yhrn pot it.

 

[atomiktoaster]

My gut says to jam. They won't see that coming lol.......if we're not jamming. Yhrn pot it.

I think Hero's hand is almost face up at this point, if the villain is paying attention. I see a jam going much better if we had done the tricky trap limp to keep KT in Villain's mind. Still at this point, any bet is going to fold worse and get called by better.

 

[DrStrange]

Keep in mind the stacks are very short. The SPR is ~4. There is no reason to playing for pot control. RIO is not much of an issue. We are in a way ahead / way behind situation.

While I rule out AA {mostly}, QQ is marginally plausible and JJ is even more in play. Not likely, just not unthinkable. KT for broadway is more likely than all the sets combined.

Villain isn't paying attention and doesn't read hands well even under ideal conditions. Sleepy, maybe tipsy, likely stoned and getting beaten up - - no he isn't at his best.

 

[atomiktoaster]

Keep in mind the stacks are very short. The SPR is ~4. There is no reason to playing for pot control. RIO is not much of an issue. We are in a way ahead / way behind situation.

While I rule out AA {mostly}, QQ is marginally plausible and JJ is even more in play. Not likely, just not unthinkable. KT for broadway is more likely than all the sets combined.

Villain isn't paying attention and doesn't read hands well even under ideal conditions. Sleepy, maybe tipsy, likely stoned and getting beaten up - - no he isn't at his best.

I'm pretty sure I'm using RIO wrong then... I just meant that in this setting, you're going to have a hard time getting money out of Villain when you're way ahead, and there's no point raising if you're way behind.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Given the description of the SB, this bet doesn't fit his tells. As such I think we may be facing two pair here. Given stack sizes I don't think it's wise to continue here, because it feels like we're chasing very few outs, and with no guarantee if we hit them that we'll get action.

My spidey senses are just going off on this one. I'm going to say fold this flop. I know, it defies all logic, but that's just the feel I'm getting in this spot. I agree on the way ahead/way behind discussion, and I think we're in the way behind camp.

 

[atomiktoaster]

Given the description of the SB, this bet doesn't fit his tells. As such I think we may be facing two pair here. Given stack sizes I don't think it's wise to continue here, because it feels like we're chasing very few outs, and with no guarantee if we hit them that we'll get action.

My spidey senses are just going off on this one. I'm going to say fold this flop. I know, it defies all logic, but that's just the feel I'm getting in this spot. I agree on the way ahead/way behind discussion, and I think we're in the way behind camp.

Villain called a standard open and then put in a reasonable bet to see what hero would do. You don't think half his range could be AT or worse? There's a great chance he has a piece of it too, just not as big as Hero. A raise to $15, folding to subsequent aggression is an even money bet. Don't let a villain in this kind of shape scare you off.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Villain called a standard open and then put in a reasonable bet to see what hero would do. You don't think half his range could be AT or worse? There's a great chance he has a piece of it too, just not as big as Hero. A raise to $15, folding to subsequent aggression is an even money bet. Don't let a villain in this kind of shape scare you off.

The SB started the hand with $40. If we raise to $15 and he shoves now there's $9.25 (pot on flop) + $6 (his bet) + $15 (our raise) + $31.25 (his remaining stack) = $61.50 and we have to call another $16.25 getting 3.78 to 1 and we've just forced ourselves to have to call here.

This is essentially a spot where we have to decide if TPTK is the best hand, because we're playing for stacks if we continue. I don't think we're ahead, thus I advocate fold.

 

[atomiktoaster]

The SB started the hand with $40. If we raise to $15 and he shoves now there's $9.25 (pot on flop) + $6 (his bet) + $15 (our raise) + $31.25 (his remaining stack) = $61.50 and we have to call another $16.25 getting 3.78 to 1 and we've just forced ourselves to have to call here.

This is essentially a spot where we have to decide if TPTK is the best hand, because we're playing for stacks if we continue. I don't think we're ahead, thus I advocate fold.

Did he have $31.25 behind after the raise? In that case, you have $22.25 to call his jam, which I think you can get away from. If he had $31.25 before the raise, the pot can only hit $52.50 for your $16.25 left, which hurts but you can still fold the straight draw.

 

[Anthony Martino]

SB started the hand with $40. Pre-flop he called $2.75 and then on the flop he led for $6. So he's committed $8.75 of his stack at that point and has $31.25 remaining after his flop bet. The pot at that point is $15.75 ($9.25 on the flop plus his $6 bet)

If we just call that's now a pot of $21.75 with him having $31.25 going into the turn AND the betting lead. There are plenty of turns that either kill our action from villain (if we're ahead) or scare us.

You suggest we reraise him to $15 and then fold if he comes over the top. But If we reraise his $6 bet to $15 as you suggest, we should not be folding at that point if Villain shoves, because we'd be getting 3.78 to 1 on our call, which means we only need 21% equity in the hand for our call to be break-even. If villain holds the following hands that are ahead, at this point we're obliged to call based on the math

(we have 26% equity)
(we have 34% equity)
(we have 37% equity)

If Villain holds a set here we aren't getting the right odds, but it's unlikely given the preflop action that a set is in his range. Yeah, he could have AT here and we could be ahead, and he could have KT and we could be crushed. I just feel there are more hands in his betting range on this flop that have us beat than those we beat, especially considering how many players he's betting into, after we shoved aggression preflop. We had the betting lead, now he's taking it on a flop that likely hits most preflop raising ranges and fires into a crowded room of potential hands that could shoot back? I don't think he's bluffing here, I think he's betting for value and somewhat for protection of a two-pair type hand. I still vote we fold.

 

[atomiktoaster]

I really hope we get to villain's hand at this point. A3o wouldn't shock me at all given the description.

 

[DrStrange]

At the moment this villain has a far wider range than might be evident from his description. J3 / 66 / A7 / 9T / Q8 - - - a giant range. And it isn't out of the question for him to pay off a raise sometimes, but not always.

DrStrange

 

[atomiktoaster]

At the moment this villain has a far wider range than might be evident from his description. J3 / 66 / A7 / 9T / Q8 - - - a giant range. And it isn't out of the question for him to pay off a raise sometimes, but not always.

DrStrange

Is he smart/aggressive enough to jam with air here if you raise? Might favor a call, but it's gonna be hard to keep it out of the middle on the turn if we suspect we are in fact behind.

 

[DrStrange]

This villain is overly aggressive, but more likely to spew with nothing facing "weakness". But he is capable of going off just about anytime and with every quality hand. Since we all have more weak hands than strong, he goes to war with a lot of garbage.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Next card please ***

Hero calls $6. Heads up, $21.25 in the pot, effective stacks $31.25

Turn is: < >

Villain bets $7. First cuts out $6 but then adds one more dollar. Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising less than all-in, how much?

Based on the bet, Hero sees no tells. Villain always has sizing problems, it is blind luck when he makes a bet sized "properly".

DrStrange

 

[atomiktoaster]

At this point, call $6 into $21... Maybe you hit your T out on the river. I think you're committed to the coin flip if it's another brick. Hindsight doesn't like the call on the flop. If you had put the dollars in the pot before the turn, you would at least have some information on Villlain's thinking. Now it just seems like he's going to keep betting because he thinks he's supposed to, no matter what his hand might be.

 

[Trihonda]

At this point, call $6 into $21... Maybe you hit your T out on the river. I think you're committed to the coin flip if it's another brick. Hindsight doesn't like the call on the flop. If you had put the dollars in the pot before the turn, you would at least have some information on Villlain's thinking. Now it just seems like he's going to keep betting because he thinks he's supposed to, no matter what his hand might be.

This. I don't like raising here. I raise to extract value, bluff people, or get information. I think any info gained now isn't going to be worth it with only one street remaining. I agree we're either way ahead or way behind here. NOW, I'm thinking pot control... until the river when we bink the 10... Then I'm thinking value.

 

[DrStrange]

I like the idea of a villain who fires every street no matter what his hand is just because he thinks he should.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I like the idea of a villain who fires every street no matter what his hand is just because he thinks he should.

I dunno, it works for @Ben

 

[moojersey]

Weird spot verse this villain. Flop is soaking wet. You don't beat much and draws are a problem. SPR is high too adding to problem. I'm leaning towards a flat call because only a better hand is calling your jam.

 

[moojersey]

OTT I think flat call as well. Yes it does put half our stack in the middle, but we still don't beat anything but a stone cold bluff unless SB is going to triple barrel A2o.

If he was betting an open ended on the flop (9, 10), he just got there.

 

[moojersey]

I still don't think it's time to fold top top.

 

[DrStrange]

*** The River ***

Hero calls $7. It is heads up going to the river. $35.25 in the pot. $24.25 effective stacks.

River is: < >

Villain bets $7. Action on Hero, fold, call or raise all-in?

DrStrange