Love when we get good hand analysis on PCF
-
This site contains affiliate links. If you choose to make a purchase after clicking a link, Poker Chip Forum may receive a commission at no additional cost to you. Thank you for your support!
An interesting NLHE hand in a $200/$400/$400 ante game (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Windwalker
- Start date
OP
OP
It’s a great point, post hand. While in play, thoughts are:
- our flush (if made) is good a chunk of the time
- our bottom pair is good some of the time (AKo, AQo, or AKs/AQs (not clubs).
- the call is hopeful, but really hopeful for a 3 or 4 which plays much better for us.
And yes, we definitely must continue.
Sorry, don’t mean to single out, but generally I think it can be flawed to think about hands in this way i.e. we did X on previous street so now we have to always do Y when Z happens because otherwise we shouldn’t have done X.
Just because we call a raise with 43s pre and call a c-bet (correctly or not), doesn’t mean we have to stack off with a flush regardless of villain’s consequent actions and what those do to his range.
I don’t know, maybe it’s my thinking that is flawed but I thought it could be worth discussing
NoNamePokerGuy
Two Pair
No offense taken. Overall I agree. You gained additional information that you didn't have before. But the expected outcomes of the turn are a reasonable raise or a check, so while you have now confirmed he's going to do one of those two things you should act how you planned to act when you previously called. Now there are certainly a lot of live tells that could influence that decision as well as over betting the pot etc. There is some additional information with the tank betting, but that goes back to live reads that are hard to calculate based on text after the hand vs being in the hand.Sorry, don’t mean to single out, but generally I think it can be flawed to think about hands in this way i.e. we did X on previous street so now we have to always do Y when Z happens because otherwise we shouldn’t have done X.
Just because we call a raise with 43s pre and call a c-bet (correctly or not), doesn’t mean we have to stack off with a flush regardless of villain’s consequent actions and what those do to his range.
I don’t know, maybe it’s my thinking that is flawed but I thought it could be worth discussing
OP
OP
Leaving the turn action up a bit longer because yesterday was the 4th of July, and in case anyone else wants to chime in.
Read on the villain here is super important. If the impression is that they would be sticky with an overpair, I would tend to go larger on the raise.
Given the read on the player, however, I think we can rule out any kind of non nutted made flush on the turn. Ax of clubs combos are very possible that even a really tight player would continue with.
If I'm the villain here and I see a raise on this turn from a tight aggressive hero to what is essentially a blocker bet, alarm bells are going off unless I already have the nuts. This board is certainly more favorable for the caller in late position as opposed to an UTG open.
This smells like villain having pocket aces with the ace of clubs or AK of clubs. Eager to see how this turns out!
Rakrul
Straight
Villain has to set hero's range to slow played set 44/77 (let's toss in a weirdly/poor played JJ for the hell of it), some 56 combos, some double clubs, some AcXc combos unless he blocks them, some midpairs.
There's not a lot for villain to be gained by betting big here, no matter what he has. So his upper range wants to entice a raise, the rest of his range wants pot control and this is a block bet.
The only hand we're vulnerable to in villain's range, is AcKx/AxKc and AcQx and maybe AxQc + JJ. We might be way behind a higher flush already, and I don't think we'll get paid by overpair if we raise.
If he has one of the vulnerable hands, he'll be happy to 3-bet hero's raise. Hero is not likely to raise a set when the 3rd club lands which polarizes hero's range and villain has plenty of equity and fold equity with a 3 bet.
Calling turn also forces villain to bet the river even with hands that whiff out for him, while we have pot control (to some extent) on the river. We don't have a particular great hand here, so somedamage pot control can't be too awful.
There's not a lot for villain to be gained by betting big here, no matter what he has. So his upper range wants to entice a raise, the rest of his range wants pot control and this is a block bet.
The only hand we're vulnerable to in villain's range, is AcKx/AxKc and AcQx and maybe AxQc + JJ. We might be way behind a higher flush already, and I don't think we'll get paid by overpair if we raise.
If he has one of the vulnerable hands, he'll be happy to 3-bet hero's raise. Hero is not likely to raise a set when the 3rd club lands which polarizes hero's range and villain has plenty of equity and fold equity with a 3 bet.
Calling turn also forces villain to bet the river even with hands that whiff out for him, while we have pot control (to some extent) on the river. We don't have a particular great hand here, so some
OP
OP
Continuing...
$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.
Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.
Hero in CO looks down at
.
Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.
Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.
Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.
Pot now is $7000.
Flop is
Villain bets out $5000.
Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said,
or 
are also within his range, and given his recent sunrunning, Hero decides to just call and catch a cheap turn.
Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.
Turn is
.
Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.
A few things to consider here for Hero.
The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.
Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.
River is
.
Villain bets $17,500.
Hero? (Obviously, we're going to raise -- question is, how much, if we want to maximize value.)
$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.
Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.
Hero in CO looks down at
.Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.
Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.
Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.
Pot now is $7000.
Flop is
Villain bets out $5000.
Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said,
or are also within his range, and given his recent sunrunning, Hero decides to just call and catch a cheap turn.Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.
Turn is
.Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.
A few things to consider here for Hero.
The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.
Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.
River is
.Villain bets $17,500.
Hero? (Obviously, we're going to raise -- question is, how much, if we want to maximize value.)
Raise to around $55-$60,000. Then just pray they've got the Ace-high flush and jam.Continuing...
$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.
Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.
Hero in CO looks down at
Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.
Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.
Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.
Pot now is $7000.
Flop is
Villain bets out $5000.
Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said,
Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.
Turn is
Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.
A few things to consider here for Hero.
The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.
Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.
River is
Villain bets $17,500.
Hero? (Obviously, we're going to raise -- question is, how much, if we want to maximize value.)
Frogzilla
Straight Flush
I think you target exactly Ace of clubs and go pretty big. Balance with maybe a couple hands with a 7c or 8c as bluff.Continuing...
$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.
Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.
Hero in CO looks down at
Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.
Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.
Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.
Pot now is $7000.
Flop is
Villain bets out $5000.
Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said,
Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.
Turn is
Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.
A few things to consider here for Hero.
The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.
Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.
River is
Villain bets $17,500.
Hero? (Obviously, we're going to raise -- question is, how much, if we want to maximize value.)
Raise to somewhere in the 120k-150k range
GetUrShineBox
Flush
His downsized turn bet to me seems like he has either a higher flush and just wants to value bet the turn in hopes to get a bigger bet out of you on the river OR has an over pair and is block betting. I'd raise the turn to $15-$20k to hopefully take it down there bc you don't want to see another club or the board to pair.
GetUrShineBox
Flush
Continuing...
$200/$400 with a $400 BB ante.
Hero is in the CO, villain in UTG.
We're 6 hours in, villain SS is $240K, up $140K.
Hero SS is $270K, up $70K.
Villain is TIGHT! Clearly not comfortable with the stakes, has shown down almost only premium hands, but has sunrun a bit recently, having callers with 2nd best hands. (2 set over sets, one K high flush over a Q high flush). Relatively predictable.
Hero's image is semi TAG, with some random showdown hands thrown in like 57s, and one Kobe which won a $60k pot.
Villain in UTG raises to $3K.
Everyone up to Hero folds.
Hero in CO looks down at
Button is TAG, down some.
SB and BB are both decent players, semi TAGs. They've been drinking a bit, card dead for a couple hours.
Hero debates b/w a call and a raise. The raise is probably more appropriate to isolate Villain, especially given BB has the $400 ante in the pot. But, given how tight Villain is, and its a UTG raise, Hero decides to call.
Button folds.
SB folds.
BB folds.
Pot now is $7000.
Flop is
Villain bets out $5000.
Hero has an option to raise here, given Villain’s typical range UTG. That said,
Hero calls. Pot is now $17000.
Turn is
Villain tanks for a while, almost 3 minutes. He then bets $4200.
A few things to consider here for Hero.
The long tank was unusual, which we read as a polar construct. This is either a blocker bet with a big overpair (and no clubs), or pot control with a big club (Ac, Kc, maybe Qc). It could also be a slowlplay to entice a raise with JJ, and a made Ace-high flush. We decide that Villain isn't brave enough to call a raise with just a Ac or Kc, and can find a fold to almost anything other than a made flush, except maybe JJ. We decide to call.
Hero calls. Pot is now $25,400.
River is
Villain bets $17,500.
Hero? (Obviously, we're going to raise -- question is, how much, if we want to maximize value.)
My first instinct is raise to $50k but also this can be a spot where you jam and just hope he calls you with the A high flush. You're possibly giving up $32,500 with the over bet but you could win a ton if he calls.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I think I'm just going to click it back here. The
probably at least calls and may still move in which is great. But by sizing a small raise we might also get a crying call from the or that we might not if we go for a larger size. The exactly is probably the one inferior hand that may call a larger price than the minimum, but if he doesn't have that, we are going to lose some other hands that might call the minimum. It's so hard to know, bet sizing can be art as much as it is math.(LATE EDIT
I definitely think jamming is wrong, hero is too deep for that and it will give the the opportunity to fold when he would have to call a reasonable size here for sure. So click it back, or maybe go for 3x-4x (50K-65K) instead if you think villain is always folding lesser clubs anyway.
Last edited:
Rakrul
Straight
I don't think he's calling k-high flush or better even if you clickback, so you'll only get money from A-high. He has the 4th nuts, so how tight is he when it comes to calling. A shove screams meta-bluff so I think that makes it easier for him to fold, unless you "regularly" shove bluffs? How much would you raise if you're bluffing here? Hopefully you're somewhat balanced here but I'm in the $50k range here if I don't know how my image is with villain.
Rakrul
Straight
On my stakes with morons, the bet sizing screams value, and fold to any raise but I'm sure it doesn't translate to these stakes that well. If they do, a clickback is the only raise you'll get a call from, but since you can't be certain I opt for the $50k-range.
If they do, a clickback is the only raise you'll get a call from, but since you can't be certain I opt for the $50k-range.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
It is so hard to be "balanced" in one card flush spots really. It's a spot that just isn't bluffed much in the first place. Yay hero it the card, but if you are right that villain is folding smaller flushes, there's really only one way to get paid. Hope he has the
(which he could several ways for sure.)
Chippy McChiperson
Straight Flush
I’m guessing he has AAcx here. I’d make it slightly more than a min-raise, maybe like 42k, in hopes he jams with the ace. It’s small enough where he could potentially cry call with QQcx or KKcx.
Rakrul
Straight
Well, there are other spots to bluff than 4-card flush boards.It is so hard to be "balanced" in one card flush spots really. It's a spot that just isn't bluffed much in the first place. Yay hero it the card, but if you are right that villain is folding smaller flushes, there's really only one way to get paid. Hope he has the
Regardless, hero mentions that villain has lost some showdowns with k-high flush etc. but it seems like he called those down? Also, some people who play really nitty can be obsessed by not being bluffed off a hand in a big pot and will call down a shove with two pair here, so this is a spot where no matter what I do, I feel like I lost money.
A river click back/min raise is NEVER a bluff in my experience. I think a std raise is probably $55-60k. I might even go ambitious and make it like $77k
What exactly would hero be representing here anyway? Anyone that calls down three streets and then makes a huge raise or jams the river makes absolutely no sense.
@Windwalker has made some big bluffs and pretty public spots I think. And some that may have not have made sense. I could be be wrong here admittedly, but I think I would go for a bigger sizing like waht @Frogzilla suggested to target Ac
I think a raise here is automatic in most cases but the real question will be what if V shoves in response? 
is possible. Unlikely from tight UTG open but it’s not unheard of…x may even shove here not giving Hero credit for straight flush and since V holds.
If I was winning already I would probably just call instead of having to potentially make that difficult decision for my whole stack. If I was stuck then I would raise and probably call off a reraise.
is possible. Unlikely from tight UTG open but it’s not unheard of…x may even shove here not giving Hero credit for straight flush and since V holds.If I was winning already I would probably just call instead of having to potentially make that difficult decision for my whole stack. If I was stuck then I would raise and probably call off a reraise.
Last edited:
If I had Krish’s hand and villain shows up with 89 clubs that dealer would be in big trouble…… just sayin.
Mandos
3 of a Kind
My question is what percent of shoves by villain are Acx vs 89c. It should be enough that we're rooting for a shove I think.I think a raise here is automatic in most cases but the real question will be what if V shoves in response?
If I was winning already I would probably just call instead of having to potentially make that difficult decision for my whole stack. If I was stuck then I would raise and probably call off a reraise.
FDLmold
Royal Flush
What has TIGHT opponent seen from us so far? He raised, we CALLED. Flop he bet, we CALLED. Turn he bet, we CALLED. So now if we raise the river, how will he range us? Especially if he has the ? I think he could exactly put us on and fold. Raise small, like a minraise to $35k.
? I think he could exactly put us on and fold. Raise small, like a minraise to $35k.
I don't $35k min-raise, it looks too strong and will likely only get calls from AcX with all other holdings probably folding. I'd expect pretty much the same villain response to a shove as well (looks less strong but nitty/scared V won't risk his entire stack without the nut flush).
To possibly keep in the smaller flushes, I'd go with a smallish raise of $45k, and just maybe the Ac jams in response.
With Villain's actions and bet sizes so far, I'm relatively convinced he has AcAx, AcKx, KcKx, or less-likely QcQx. He jams with the first two holdings (insta-call!), and might find a call with the latter two.
To possibly keep in the smaller flushes, I'd go with a smallish raise of $45k, and just maybe the Ac jams in response.
With Villain's actions and bet sizes so far, I'm relatively convinced he has AcAx, AcKx, KcKx, or less-likely QcQx. He jams with the first two holdings (insta-call!), and might find a call with the latter two.
ChipFinderSK
Full House
I’m raising big trying to get a crying call from the Ac. Kc and Qc are likely to fold to a raise any way, so I’m not worried about those hands.
Raise somewhere between $69K - $90K, being prepared to snap call any all-in.
Raise somewhere between $69K - $90K, being prepared to snap call any all-in.
Create an account or login to comment
You must be a member in order to leave a comment
Create account
Create an account and join our community. It's easy!
Log in
Already have an account? Log in here.
