AQo in the BB - multiple interesting decision points (3 Viewers)

[natumes]

I could go for either a check/call or a bet depending on the river read. With the missed draws and top top I like a bet slightly better, but a raise will suck, and that's why OOP sucks.

 

[Darson]

What was the stack size of button coming into this hand?

 

[Legend5555]

It's a massive stretch to give villain a set or 2 pair here. Villain isn't going to just call twice on this wet a board with those. It might happen some small % of the time, but so small IMO that it's basically not worth considering.

I wish hero had bet bigger on the turn. Betting small to keep in a T is just not a good reason when there are a ton of draws and worse Qs that would call a large bet. Plus, the larger bet sets up a nice river jam. Now given the villain's perceived range, a jam might seem silly since villain can have so many draws. But the villain can also see that everything has missed. So from his POV hero can have misses here too.

Now, I don't entirely fault a check call line if we think villain is very draw heavy. With AQ specifically, it's kind of interesting. If we had KK or AA, then villain can have more Qx. So those I think are obvious bets.

Basically, I'm somewhat neutral on bet or check call. I would have liked bet more as a triple barrel if we had bet bigger iyn the turn.

 

[MrCatPants]

What was the stack size of button coming into this hand?

about $350 effective at this point. He had me covered.

 

[MrCatPants]

So I think two open questions here before we can really determine action. This simple hand I think is actually pretty complex.

Really curious on other's thoughts here before I share where I went.

1. What range of hands is button on here?

I don't think slow played sets are very likely here - wouldn't sets have been fast played with multiple flush draws and straight draws on the turn? Wouldn't I have been raised on the flop or turn by 77 or 33? And what would 22 be doing in the hand? QQ mostly blocked, and isn't 10s likely 3 betting pre?

My thought was...

• Many Qxs, some of which may be two pairs but very unlikely so given my action and the turn and river 'bricks'
• Same with 10x hands, some of which may be two pairs but also pretty unlikely
• Middling pocket pair he is being sticky with like 99 or 88
• Various straight and flush draws that missed - probably 60-70% of his potential holdings here fit this bill

2. Given that, am I in a "only going to get called by a better hand" situation with a bet? Or is there some thin value out there?

I leaned towards there may be some small value bets that may get called, but that's about it. And I may very well be in 'only getting called by better category' and letting missed draws hang themselves.

Thoughts?

 

[natumes]

What does your opponent put you on? You just as easily could have missed draws and unpaired aces and pocket pairs in your range that Qx and 10x will call. At this point if you check I would think you call a bet anyways, so might as well put villain to a decision. If he has two pair or a set, he would have raised on the turn. Over pair would have probably re raised pre. I go for value here with what is probably the best hand.

 

[MrCatPants]

What does your opponent put you on?

I was going to ask that question after some action on the river

 

[JustinInMN]

I really think villain has enough calling hands here with kq, qj, Kt, jt, t9 all as credible starting hands. So I think I prefer a bet since I suspect villain will check most of this back.

On the other hand. There are some missed spades, but not a lot given and are on board. Missed straights too.

So the argument for checking is whether or not hero induces enough bluffs to make up for missed value from hands villain will call.

Really have to know your player here. But based on the hand to date. Feels like a pay off wizard situation on villain's side. I am going to bet about 50, and probably call a raise.

My guess, hero want huge and got called by the same hand .

 

[Windwalker]

Chatty older dude. On the button. You’ve been there 30 minutes. I think he had 10-deuce and wanted to invoke Doyle Brunson, and called you down thinking you had AK, especially because your bet sizing wasn’t indicating a lot of strength. I think he spiked a two-pair on the river, and probably goes all in, no matter what you bet.

(Utter instinctive speculation, by the way. I’m probably so wrong.)

 

[Legend5555]

I really think villain has enough calling hands here with kq, qj, Kt, jt, t9 all as credible starting hands. So I think I prefer a bet since I suspect villain will check most of this back.

On the other hand. There are some missed spades, but not a lot given and are on board. Missed straights too.

So the argument for checking is whether or not hero induces enough bluffs to make up for missed value from hands villain will call.

Really have to know your player here. But based on the hand to date. Feels like a pay off wizard situation on villain's side. I am going to bet about 50, and probably call a raise.

My guess, hero want huge and got called by the same hand .

It's unfortunate we can't go for a larger sizing here given the bet sizes used prior to the river. I would have 80%-100% on turn looking to jam river since I'd play bluffs similarly. I'd get value owned sometimes by people playing 2 pair like a scaredy cat, but oh well. I think not enough people try to go for max value with TPTK on certain boards.

But that's obviously theory based play. If I knew my villain wasn't a pay off wizard, then I can get behind a small value bet.

 

[AR_poker]

I really think villain has enough calling hands here with kq, qj, Kt, jt, t9 all as credible starting hands. So I think I prefer a bet since I suspect villain will check most of this back.

On the other hand. There are some missed spades, but not a lot given and are on board. Missed straights too.

So the argument for checking is whether or not hero induces enough bluffs to make up for missed value from hands villain will call.

Really have to know your player here. But based on the hand to date. Feels like a pay off wizard situation on villain's side. I am going to bet about 50, and probably call a raise.

My guess, hero want huge and got called by the same hand .

+1 to this and to @Legend5555 about missing out on value vs. occasional value-owning.

I like a smaller size--though I'd probably go closer to half pot--because I think this is more of a catch-all value bet spot (and this is probably the bottom of our value-bet range, right?) than a nuts-or-air spot. Get that thin value, baby. Also, I'd hate to check hoping villain bluffs busted spades or J9/89/whatever but instead villain just checks back and says "I missed!", where I think a smaller size can induce those hands to bluff raise because it looks like we're weak.

 

[MrCatPants]

Hero is in the BB with a $450 stack - this is a Texas card room so hero is covered by everyone at the table basically, except one shorty who is not relevant to the hand.

Very talky older gentleman on the button puts on the button straddle to $6.

SB folds

Hero looks down at and RAISES to $25.
Folds to straddle who CALLS.

Flop comes

Hero BETS $25. Villain calls.

Turn comes

Hero BETS $50. Villain calls.

Pot is $201.

River comes : - so bricks out every potential draw.

Hero BETS $50 (deciding to bet for thin value against weaker one pair hands)

Villain RAISES to $225. Hero contemplates for 15 seconds, then looks at Villain who promptly pills his jacket up over his head, turtle style.

Action on Hero. $175 to call (about $300 total behind for hero), Pot at $476.

 

[skylines]

enough bluffs possible from V with everything bricking that i think you have to call with pot odds. you are close to top of range

 

[FDLmold]

Call. If villain has a better hand, and never raised it, while waiting to see if any drawing hands got there, then he's earned your stack.

 

[Windwalker]

Villan has . Show and fold.

 

[Frogzilla]

I dunno. You don’t block either missed flush draw or the missed straight draws so this is a perfect hand to call. On the other hand, bet/folding river with top pair prints money live low stakes. Sigh call

 

[AR_poker]

omg the turtle move. what a legend.

Lean call--part of the small bet is that it can induce bluffs, and we've gotta be cool with that on the front end. I'd probably try to engage with villain at the table, try to suss out his comfort level. Since he's a chatty older man, the fact that he's gone turtle mode seems notable, especially if there's been any talking in the hand (OP doesn't specify one way or the other).

For this price, I think it's a call, though I totally agree with @Frogzilla that folding to river raises is generally good. Closing the pre-flop action as the button straddler, he just has enough hands here that can call flop and turn and are now no-pair (or a bizarrely overplayed Qx or Tx) on the river to offset whatever plausible sets/two-pairs he arrives here with.

 

[MrCatPants]

So I think a relevant question here is how does villain perceive my line? And it's what was going through my head while in the tank.

Not to level myself - but does my weaker turn and river betting scream "I missed my draws and now trying to get a strange cheap bluff through", "I have some showdown value and might call against a better hand (like two pair as discussed)", "I've been strong the whole way and just trying to get thin value?" etc.

Is he trying to play the player versus the cards? Does the raise size say something here in that regard?

And as already mentioned, low stakes folding river raises is generally a +EV move in the long run.

Going to leave this open for another couple hours and will post the final action later today.

 

[rjdev7]

following along, I'm hooked

Edit: I'm primarily hooked because I feel like I've found myself in this situation 10 times and I almost always bet call the river here as played. It's definitely annoying but from my experiences in low stakes games, more often than not I lose with TPTK to someone floating the flop and hitting two pair with two random cards like 73 suited. Hope you had a better outcome!

 

[Frogzilla]

So I think a relevant question here is how does villain perceive my line? And it's what was going through my head while in the tank.

Not to level myself - but does my weaker turn and river betting scream "I missed my draws and now trying to get a strange cheap bluff through", "I have some showdown value and might call against a better hand (like two pair as discussed)", "I've been strong the whole way and just trying to get thin value?" etc.

Is he trying to play the player versus the cards? Does the raise size say something here in that regard?

And as already mentioned, low stakes folding river raises is generally a +EV move in the long run.

Going to leave this open for another couple hours and will post the final action later today.

I think your sizing is strange for both bluffs and value. Both should have gone bigger. When people undersize I don’t personally put them more bluff or value, I just think they underbet. As played in villain shoes, I’m probably turning (1) my missed clubs and (2) missed straight draws without a spade into a bluff raise, and raising 2pair+ for value (targeting mostly over pairs and some Qx)

Some villains simply do not have a bluff raise range tho. They always fold the missed draws or weak pairs (weak pair doesn’t seem relevant on this texture but some boards that’s the best bluff).

 

[raynmanas]

it's a tough one. some people like to run high-risk/high-reward traps for this exact situation (brick/brick runout). i can easily see a trappy set of 7s here.

still, throw up in your mouth and call, fully prepared to reload.

 

[upNdown]

It’s not just the river raise that should set off alarms (because there just aren’t a lot of big River bluffs at low stakes, as others have said,) but it’s also the call, call, call that got him there. You can say those calls could indicate all the possible draws; I’d counter that they are also consistent with a flopped set on a draw heavy board at low stakes.
Without any other intel on this villain, I think this is a pretty clear fold.

 

[Windwalker]

It’s not just the river raise that should set off alarms (because there just aren’t a lot of big River bluffs at low stakes, as others have said,) but it’s also the call, call, call that got him there. You can say those calls could indicate all the possible draws; I’d counter that they are also consistent with a flopped set on a draw heavy board at low stakes.
Without any other intel on this villain, I think this is a pretty clear fold.

When OP reveals villan had

, my read shall be marveled.

But seriously, at those stakes, and with relatively chatty players in position and a straddle invested, I tend to find they don’t believe C-bets and call with mediocre hands, like 10x or Qx. Usually suited. You usually need larger bets to get them off their hand.

My thinking is that he called your initial raise with a relatively mediocre hand, got lucky with a Q or 10, and then spiked a 2-pair. People like I imagine villain to be tend to raise at least once if they’ve hit a set up front.

It’s a fold for me.

 

[JustinInMN]

In my last comment, I said I was planning to call a raise, but the turtle move I would interpret as a tell of strength. Players acting this provactivly seem like they want a call.

I also don't think hero is at top of range here. Hero surely has kk,aa,tt,qq in range. Hero may also have kq, jj, 99, and maybe some missed draws on this line too. So I would put hero at middle of range here.

Absent the tell, I would be leaning call. But I just have a hard time thinking the turtle move is a bluff.

I think I might lay this one down.

 

[DrStrange]

Villain takes a call, call, call, raise line - is this a bluff or value? Are we thinking villain doesn't semibluff on the flop or turn but wakes up and makes a stone cold river bluff?

Not me, I think Hero is burned toast. Hero should be folding the river if he was going to lead that street.

Better to take a check / call(?) river line to maybe catch a bluff or misguided "value" bet and keep the bet sizing more in tune with Hero's hand strength. But that is easy to say this late in the hand.

DrStrange

 

[Moxie Mike]

Turn comes

Hero BETS $50. Villain calls.

Pot is $201.

River comes : - so bricks out every potential draw.

Action on hero.

Haven't read past this point:

So given the description, Villain will not bet a missed draw if checked to. Since the deuce on the river is very unlikely to have changed anything, he'll probably call with a one pair hand and fold any missed draws. I definitely don't expect a raise.

So a bet is perfectly appropriate. I'd probably bet $75, which is consistent with the smallish bets HERO made on previous streets.

Reading conclusion now:

• Today at 12:17 PM
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• #42

Hero is in the BB with a $450 stack - this is a Texas card room so hero is covered by everyone at the table basically, except one shorty who is not relevant to the hand.

Very talky older gentleman on the button puts on the button straddle to $6.

SB folds

Hero looks down at and RAISES to $25.
Folds to straddle who CALLS.

Flop comes

Hero BETS $25. Villain calls.

Turn comes

Hero BETS $50. Villain calls.

Pot is $201.

River comes : - so bricks out every potential draw.

Hero BETS $50 (deciding to bet for thin value against weaker one pair hands)

Villain RAISES to $225. Hero contemplates for 15 seconds, then looks at Villain who promptly pills his jacket up over his head, turtle style.

Action on Hero. $175 to call (about $300 total behind for hero), Pot at $476.

Well I can't say I saw that coming.

That's a bigass raise coming from a person who's shown no aggression. Maybe he flopped a set or two pair and waited for a clean runout before committing a lot of chips?

The body language note is curious. Is this an act? Is he capable of acting? Has this Villain been observed to behave this way before?

Or perhaps he's holding Q-2 and binked two-pair on the river?

The bet sizing is troubling. If he perceives weakness and is going for value, wouldn't he make a bet of a smaller size? I could see a raise to say $130 in this spot if he spiked the deuce somehow - but $225? He has to believe you have a hand you can't get away from the value bet that big. Or he's trying to level you into a call.

Maybe he perceived your small bet sizing as weakness and is making a move with a busted draw.

I guess I'm calling - showing that you can't be moved off a strong hand is valuable. Getting a price of almost 3-1 is pretty good too. Is he bluffing 1/3 of the time? Probably not. If he has any bluffs in his range, this would be a spot where it'd make sense.

 

[Darson]

For me the challenge is that up to the river raise, you have not really had much information from villain other than him calling relatively small bets (1/2 pot).

You're only getting beaten after the flop by AA, KK, QQ, 1010, 77 Q10, Q7, 107. If he's slow playing pairs, a check on the flop would give you some indication of his strength. If he checks back, it's likely he's chasing. If he bets then I may find a fold.

The reason I asked about his stack size is that if he's sitting on a big stack (say run up to $1k from an initial $300 buy in), he may be more willing to play a wider range hoping to trap. Personally, if I'm sitting on a big stack and have position, I would consider calling ATC with a relatively small raise (compared to my stack, not the blinds) to see if I hit the flop. This is far from optimal play but it's a line I make take on occasion if I'm feeling some gambol. After all, if everyone plays optimally, there's no fun!

 

[Moxie Mike]

Just read the other replies. Seems like the opinions are pretty split between calling and folding.

I think from an EV standpoint this decision is really close either way. I still lean towards a call but the cases that have been made for folding are strong arguments too.

Honestly @MrCatPants, I'd been wondering why you posted this until the river plot twist. I began to think to myself what does my wife see in you lol

 

[Highli99]

“They always have it on the river”. He would not be turtling if he was weak, because the act implies weakness and fear.

Pretty easy fold IMO.

 

[Windwalker]

Ok enough of the suspense already lol. Tell us what happened.