Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
Wishing you well on your journey, following!
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Chester Copperpot’s Pirate Treasure Hunt (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Chester Copperpot
- Start date
boltonguy
Flush
I think the thing to decide from looking at that leak tracker is "what question do I want to answer next?"
While your sample size is too small at this point to be too statistically relevant, lets ignore this for the moment. PT shows the definition of "Attempted to Steal from Late Position %" as "Percentage of the time that a player opened the pot by raising in the cutoff or on the button."
These reports have an ideal target population in mind and you are not playing against that population. Over an infinite number of hands played against all possible opponents, the guidance from the leak tracker may be perfect. However, if you are playing only against a pool of super nits who fold everything but AA, KK, QQ in the SB & BB it will be profitable to attempt to steal from BN & CO 100% of the time (or very close to it - I cant do the math
)So the question I would be asking is "what is my VPIP from CO & BN, what hands am I opening and am I losing money for being too loose?"
PT4 has some really good reports. Under Statistics, selecting "Summary" and "By Position" will show you VPIP/PFR and winnings by all positions. Here I think I am opening MP too tight but the sample size is too small really as it is only for this month (August).
Next one - and I really like these reports - will show your hand range by position. Again you need a lot of hands for this but it is super cool. You need to choose the "Holdem Hand Range Visualizer" and then choose stats and position below:
These two reports can add a level of detail behind the leak tracker.
I think the only way to determine if it is profitable to steal "wider" say, opening A2o from CO, is to gradually widen your steal ranges from these positions and see the impact on your winnings based on the population that you are playing. In anonymous games you have the option to play a much more exploitative style as it will be hard for V to counter-exploit you if they dont know who you are in the next hand (Zone). At normal Ignition tables with HUDs playing very unbalanced to exploit may require changing tables after N hands when V sees enough of your play to catch on and adjust
People with HUDs on Iggy will see you VPIP/PFR by position for the period you are playing at the same non-Zone table. When I see someone opening wide in LP and I am in the blinds I open my 3 betting and defending ranges to compensate. However the HUD stats arent super reliable over a small sample set of hands.
It is also hard to know how aware your opponents will be at these stakes on this site.
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OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
That hand visualizer is a really neat tool. Definitely need to get a lot more hands in to make good use of it, but it's neat to play with and get familiar right now. Appreciate you sharing these tips.
Posted a PAHWM on a recent hand I played: https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/pahwm-25nl-bovada.61397/
Posted a PAHWM on a recent hand I played: https://www.pokerchipforum.com/threads/pahwm-25nl-bovada.61397/
boltonguy
Flush
I am reading "Play Optimal Poker" by Andrew Brokos right now so I wanted to take a shot at the math behind your question to calculate the %of time the steal needs to be successful to be profitable. It turns out, probably to noone's surprise but mine, that the break even % for the steal is a function of your RFI size.
I did the math assuming the following:
1. LP Hero steals with 3BB RFI with Any Two Cards (ATC)
2. When BB or SB call the Hero always loses. Maybe I will take a shot at the break even assuming some win % when BB or SB call but this was simpler to start
So, Hero attempts a steal by raising 3BB from late position:
- When BB AND SB fold, Hero wins 1.5 BB. This happens %Fold of the time.
- When BB OR SB call, Hero loses 3 BB. This happens % Call of the time.
Ev = 1.5BB x %Fold - 3BB x %Call
Since we are looking for %Fold we can simplify because %Call = 1 - %Fold as one of these two actions happens a total of 100% of the time.
Ev = 1.5BB x %Fold - 3BB x (1 - %Fold)
Ev = 1.5%Fold - 3 + 3%Fold
Ev = 4.5%Fold - 3
We want break even so set Ev = 0
4.5%Fold = 3
%Fold = 3/4.5 = 66.6%
We can also write this %Fold = RFI/(RFI + 1.5)
We can also see that as the RFI size approaches infinity the %Fold required for break even approaches 100%.
I also solved this manually using excel to double check as I am no math whiz!
So for a profitable steal with a 3BB RFI we need both BB and SB to fold 67% of the time. If both blinds fold less than 67% of the time (and we assume that we lost the hand) stealing with ATC is not profitable.
Per #2 above, we know that some non-zero percent of the time that either or both blinds call, hero will still win the hand with ATC.
If we had a way to estimate that % we could subtract it from the break even Fold percentage.
We could do this by comparing range vs range equities using flopzilla but this becomes population/villain dependent.
If we wanted to select a steal range for Hero instead of ATC we could probably us that in Flopzilla with population/villain calling/folding ranges to determine a perfect steal percentage for that range based on SB and BB ranges.
I think in the end, the "right answer" is (still) villain or population dependent.
I did the math assuming the following:
1. LP Hero steals with 3BB RFI with Any Two Cards (ATC)
2. When BB or SB call the Hero always loses. Maybe I will take a shot at the break even assuming some win % when BB or SB call but this was simpler to start
So, Hero attempts a steal by raising 3BB from late position:
- When BB AND SB fold, Hero wins 1.5 BB. This happens %Fold of the time.
- When BB OR SB call, Hero loses 3 BB. This happens % Call of the time.
Ev = 1.5BB x %Fold - 3BB x %Call
Since we are looking for %Fold we can simplify because %Call = 1 - %Fold as one of these two actions happens a total of 100% of the time.
Ev = 1.5BB x %Fold - 3BB x (1 - %Fold)
Ev = 1.5%Fold - 3 + 3%Fold
Ev = 4.5%Fold - 3
We want break even so set Ev = 0
4.5%Fold = 3
%Fold = 3/4.5 = 66.6%
We can also write this %Fold = RFI/(RFI + 1.5)
We can also see that as the RFI size approaches infinity the %Fold required for break even approaches 100%.
I also solved this manually using excel to double check as I am no math whiz!
So for a profitable steal with a 3BB RFI we need both BB and SB to fold 67% of the time. If both blinds fold less than 67% of the time (and we assume that we lost the hand) stealing with ATC is not profitable.
Per #2 above, we know that some non-zero percent of the time that either or both blinds call, hero will still win the hand with ATC.
If we had a way to estimate that % we could subtract it from the break even Fold percentage.
We could do this by comparing range vs range equities using flopzilla but this becomes population/villain dependent.
If we wanted to select a steal range for Hero instead of ATC we could probably us that in Flopzilla with population/villain calling/folding ranges to determine a perfect steal percentage for that range based on SB and BB ranges.
I think in the end, the "right answer" is (still) villain or population dependent.
boltonguy
Flush
One thing I overlooked is that analysis applies to stealing from BN and CO but in the case of CO all three opponents need to fold 67% of the time for a profitable squeeze. Easier to steal wider from the BN as only two OOP players with weak ranges need to fold. That is why CO RFI ranges are generally much tighter that BN.
For example Pete Clarke's Grinder's Manual has the following 6-max CO widened stealing range vs Nits and Fish:
Which is still narrower than his BN RFI Range:
If you havent read his book "The Grinder's Manual" it is worth reading. He does the same math that I did above to determine the Required Fold Equity for a 4BB button squeeze.
For example Pete Clarke's Grinder's Manual has the following 6-max CO widened stealing range vs Nits and Fish:
Which is still narrower than his BN RFI Range:
If you havent read his book "The Grinder's Manual" it is worth reading. He does the same math that I did above to determine the Required Fold Equity for a 4BB button squeeze.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
That’s good stuff. I don’t know about raising ATC, but I can certainly see how stealing with a wide range can be profitable. There are just so many ways to win a pot that people really may not have much interest in.
Thanks for the book recommendation. One of the things I don’t like about Jonathan Little’s site is that it a lot of videos, and I guess that’s how a lot of them are. I prefer reading, so am starting to look for more written materials.
Thanks for the book recommendation. One of the things I don’t like about Jonathan Little’s site is that it a lot of videos, and I guess that’s how a lot of them are. I prefer reading, so am starting to look for more written materials.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
Just got set over setted. Pocket deuces in the BB called the UTG min raise. K high board ... pocket kings.
I guess it happens, but not had a great day already making some frustrated plays, and finally get a hand and wham! Get stacked with a sneaky good hand by an even better sneaky good hand.
I guess it happens, but not had a great day already making some frustrated plays, and finally get a hand and wham! Get stacked with a sneaky good hand by an even better sneaky good hand.
boltonguy
Flush
Tough hand. You will win it back. I don’t know the odds but set over set doesn’t happen often but when it does oh boy.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
Set over set is part of the game, and I suppose you need to go through these things to see where you’re really at. You just don’t run into this enough over a small sample.
I am less mad about set over set than I am it coming on the heels of some spewing on my part.
Won’t be playing much if at all this week, as decided to take the family on the last minute trip to Colorado Springs for the week.
So while I won’t be playing, I will do some studying as I have some fresh reading material to dig into.
I am less mad about set over set than I am it coming on the heels of some spewing on my part.
Won’t be playing much if at all this week, as decided to take the family on the last minute trip to Colorado Springs for the week.
So while I won’t be playing, I will do some studying as I have some fresh reading material to dig into.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
Back from Colorado and have logged 144 hands, between a few hands late last night and earlier today. On a little upswing, scoring $24.50. Good to get a little bit back and turn the downswing around. The game is a lot easier when you make good hands.
Going to try and get some more hands in tonight.
Going to try and get some more hands in tonight.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
While I thought that was the end of the downswing, it wasn't - It continued for another 100BB.
After I had hit a new high, I lost focus and began to play like a maniac - pushing in a lot of places I shouldn't have. Was in a poor place mentally, which is uncharacteristic for me, and I don't really understand why, except maybe being frustrated and being on a little downswing, pushed more and exacerbated it.
Took a couple days off to clear the mind, do some reading and study. Really tightened up, and reinforced to myself that I need to ride through when I'm going through hundreds of hands of dead cards. Just ride it out, don't push it, especially during a downswing. Really made it a lot worse for myself with poorly timed bluffs, bad plays, etc. Plus a bad beat or two - but really, downswing was mostly on me.
Last 250 hands or so have really focused on playing good cards, and making the appropriate moves. Also caught cards and hit flops. I've peaked passed my previous all time high by 200BB. Just really crushing it, and getting calls.
Just have to put myself in good positions, and not let myself get into too hard of positions, and when I do, just fold.
This was the longest and steepest downswing of this journey so far. Sitting at 3,400 hands now.
After I had hit a new high, I lost focus and began to play like a maniac - pushing in a lot of places I shouldn't have. Was in a poor place mentally, which is uncharacteristic for me, and I don't really understand why, except maybe being frustrated and being on a little downswing, pushed more and exacerbated it.
Took a couple days off to clear the mind, do some reading and study. Really tightened up, and reinforced to myself that I need to ride through when I'm going through hundreds of hands of dead cards. Just ride it out, don't push it, especially during a downswing. Really made it a lot worse for myself with poorly timed bluffs, bad plays, etc. Plus a bad beat or two - but really, downswing was mostly on me.
Last 250 hands or so have really focused on playing good cards, and making the appropriate moves. Also caught cards and hit flops. I've peaked passed my previous all time high by 200BB. Just really crushing it, and getting calls.
Just have to put myself in good positions, and not let myself get into too hard of positions, and when I do, just fold.
This was the longest and steepest downswing of this journey so far. Sitting at 3,400 hands now.
boltonguy
Flush
Glad to hear that you got through it! I'm in a bit of a downswing myself: Losing nut flush VS boat, aces cracked by J7s, villain hitting 3 outers on the river to beat me, etc. Like you I just focus on playing my best and powering through.
What programs do you guys recommend for tracking your hand histories for analysis? I'm not looking to spend a TON of money.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
I bought small stakes version of PT4. It has full functionality, just stake-limited.
boltonguy
Flush
If you are playing Ignition, I am using the same as Chester. There is an ignition hand grabber so PT4 can catch hands live while you are playing.
Additionally you can download hand histories 24 hours later and see Villain hole cards. I set up a second DB instance for hole cards, download the next day and review key hands - this also helps track player pool tendencies in aggregate over time which helps as Ignition is anonymous.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
Wanted to provide a quick update. I took a couple of weeks off to let my mind clear and get some bad plays out of my mind.
I came back, and am still grinding away. I have started playing two tables instead of one. I think this is helping me reduce making bad plays out of boredom.
I'm sitting at 6,142 hands now. Now that I'm two tabling, I'm sure I'll get to 10,000 much more quickly.
I came back, and am still grinding away. I have started playing two tables instead of one. I think this is helping me reduce making bad plays out of boredom.
I'm sitting at 6,142 hands now. Now that I'm two tabling, I'm sure I'll get to 10,000 much more quickly.
DrStrange
4 of a Kind
Faster might not be better. Or it might be great!
There will be a time after thousands of hands for some fancy calculating. Your win rate on one table "should" be better than the individual averages of the two table sessions. Note that "should" does not equal "will". There are players who do better on each of the tables than they do on a single table, likely due to boredom.
The key question will be how your multi-table hourly win rate looks. Do you make more on two tables combined than just one? Most winning players do. Can you make two tables into four profitably? How about six tables? There is a sweet spot for every player.
Also you have to decide what is fun. There could be a point where an extra $1 per hour isn't worth the extra tables.
Do you have a rake back deal? For that matter, is rake back even a thing any more? Back in the day when the USA was the land of the free rather than a puritanical nanny state my rake back ( where I had it ) was a significant part of my win rate. My bonus whoring dominated everything though.
Good times! Until Bill Frist and the Republicans pissed in my corn flakes
DrStrange
There will be a time after thousands of hands for some fancy calculating. Your win rate on one table "should" be better than the individual averages of the two table sessions. Note that "should" does not equal "will". There are players who do better on each of the tables than they do on a single table, likely due to boredom.
The key question will be how your multi-table hourly win rate looks. Do you make more on two tables combined than just one? Most winning players do. Can you make two tables into four profitably? How about six tables? There is a sweet spot for every player.
Also you have to decide what is fun. There could be a point where an extra $1 per hour isn't worth the extra tables.
Do you have a rake back deal? For that matter, is rake back even a thing any more? Back in the day when the USA was the land of the free rather than a puritanical nanny state my rake back ( where I had it ) was a significant part of my win rate. My bonus whoring dominated everything though.
Good times! Until Bill Frist and the Republicans pissed in my corn flakes
DrStrange
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
There is no rakeback deal at Bovada - so not able to earn any other perks that way.
I feel a bit weird playing online poker, as I don't think I'll ever do it for any kind of real serious money. It's 25NL after all. So part of me is like "what's the point?" How good can I really get at poker, and how much better can I get than I am right now, without taking a serious step up in level of effort in terms of study and hands played? Not that I don't want to get as good as I can be, and not saying I'm some great player, but it sort of feels like the margins get thinner and thinner in that spot between a solid fundamental understanding and some experience and really dedicating yourself to serious study. I think I'm saying that to become a truly exceptional player requires significant investment (something we all know) - and I'm not sure that is worth it for me with where I am in life right now, so maybe the best course for me is to just play, keep it casual, and try to be as good of a player as I can be without a serious devotion to study. That doesn't mean no study and no analysis of my play, just that it isn't a priority by any means.
All that said, I do study. I consume a lot of poker content, and poker strategy content, both in written and video form. I actually prefer written poker strategy content, and it seems like everything today is trending toward video. So while I study and try to get better, I'm not sure that I have it in me to devote hours and hours every week to poker study.
But as an example of the ebb and flow of my interest in study and consuming content, this past month, I've consumed virtually no poker content, training or otherwise. Other months, hours and hours per week. I'm probably back on the upswing a little bit right now, as we're heading into fall and worse weather and more time indoors. We'll see.
And so when I say I think I'll get through the 10K faster, I'm not necessarily thinking it's better or worse one way or the other, but just that I'd like to finish the challenge, see where I'm at, see where the bankroll is, and decide the next steps.
Sorry for rambling, I didn't mean for this to get into some deep discussion about my poker philosophy right now.
I feel a bit weird playing online poker, as I don't think I'll ever do it for any kind of real serious money. It's 25NL after all. So part of me is like "what's the point?" How good can I really get at poker, and how much better can I get than I am right now, without taking a serious step up in level of effort in terms of study and hands played? Not that I don't want to get as good as I can be, and not saying I'm some great player, but it sort of feels like the margins get thinner and thinner in that spot between a solid fundamental understanding and some experience and really dedicating yourself to serious study. I think I'm saying that to become a truly exceptional player requires significant investment (something we all know) - and I'm not sure that is worth it for me with where I am in life right now, so maybe the best course for me is to just play, keep it casual, and try to be as good of a player as I can be without a serious devotion to study. That doesn't mean no study and no analysis of my play, just that it isn't a priority by any means.
All that said, I do study. I consume a lot of poker content, and poker strategy content, both in written and video form. I actually prefer written poker strategy content, and it seems like everything today is trending toward video. So while I study and try to get better, I'm not sure that I have it in me to devote hours and hours every week to poker study.
But as an example of the ebb and flow of my interest in study and consuming content, this past month, I've consumed virtually no poker content, training or otherwise. Other months, hours and hours per week. I'm probably back on the upswing a little bit right now, as we're heading into fall and worse weather and more time indoors. We'll see.
And so when I say I think I'll get through the 10K faster, I'm not necessarily thinking it's better or worse one way or the other, but just that I'd like to finish the challenge, see where I'm at, see where the bankroll is, and decide the next steps.
Sorry for rambling, I didn't mean for this to get into some deep discussion about my poker philosophy right now.
boltonguy
Flush
Keep grinding Chester! I am still grinding 5NL zone on ignition.
In August I logged 6,700 hands at 5NL zone and had a positive month (+$38.23 or 10.27BB/100) so I stepped up to 25NL.
In September I got crushed at 25NL zone over 10,600 hands (-$222.69 or -9.97BB/100) so this month I stepped back down to 5NL. Multi-tabling 25NL zone was a bad idea ...
So far in October I have played 2,700 hands at 5NL zone and am up (+$13.74 or 11.91BB/100).
I am mixing in a session of 25NL zone every now and then to try what I am working on at 5NL. Mostly aggression: 3bet bluffing pre with baby ace suited & low SC when IP (e.g. BN vs CO or HJ), bluff 4betting preflop when OOP facing a 3b with baby ace suited (e.g. A blocker), X/R flop OOP with draws (e.g. X/R flop OOP with FD, GS. OESD), and barreling turn IP when HU and V floats flop that misses his range and turn doesnt improve. I have also started checking almost 100% of my range OOP on the flop (even when I have been the preflop aggressor and miss the flop) which as been interesting.
I can win at 5NL when I play my cards straightforward and have a winning hand. But I need to boost my win rate when I am not holding the winning hand and the circumstances (e.g. position, action sequence, draw, board) put me in a position to do so. I used to think bluffs were big bets with air. Now I'm realizing that bluffs generally seem to be hands that do have blockers or equity when called.
Once I can confidently deliver this aggression and keep winning I'll need to go back to 25NL and get back on the receiving end of it!
Being on the receiving end of the aggression and not handling it well is what killed me at 25NL.
Also I was too passive / not aggressive enough so didnt pick up enough pots to offset being on the receiving end!
I have also mixed in 50NL 6-max and full-ring at Global Poker which, while slower than Ignition Zone, is much softer and not anonymous so players cant get away with some of the garbage they can at anonymous sites like Ignition. I am up $225 this month at Global Poker. This site is like my home game The downside of Global is that you cant import hand histories or hole cards like Ignition allows, and HUDs dont work (I dont use HUD on zone so not a big deal for me). So it isnt a great site to train but it is a good site to play, profile players play style and exploit.
So I'm playing Ignition Zone to train and Global Poker to play my game. Its a good mix!
GL at the tables!
In August I logged 6,700 hands at 5NL zone and had a positive month (+$38.23 or 10.27BB/100) so I stepped up to 25NL.
In September I got crushed at 25NL zone over 10,600 hands (-$222.69 or -9.97BB/100) so this month I stepped back down to 5NL. Multi-tabling 25NL zone was a bad idea ...
So far in October I have played 2,700 hands at 5NL zone and am up (+$13.74 or 11.91BB/100).
I am mixing in a session of 25NL zone every now and then to try what I am working on at 5NL. Mostly aggression: 3bet bluffing pre with baby ace suited & low SC when IP (e.g. BN vs CO or HJ), bluff 4betting preflop when OOP facing a 3b with baby ace suited (e.g. A blocker), X/R flop OOP with draws (e.g. X/R flop OOP with FD, GS. OESD), and barreling turn IP when HU and V floats flop that misses his range and turn doesnt improve. I have also started checking almost 100% of my range OOP on the flop (even when I have been the preflop aggressor and miss the flop) which as been interesting.
I can win at 5NL when I play my cards straightforward and have a winning hand. But I need to boost my win rate when I am not holding the winning hand and the circumstances (e.g. position, action sequence, draw, board) put me in a position to do so. I used to think bluffs were big bets with air. Now I'm realizing that bluffs generally seem to be hands that do have blockers or equity when called.
Once I can confidently deliver this aggression and keep winning I'll need to go back to 25NL and get back on the receiving end of it!
Being on the receiving end of the aggression and not handling it well is what killed me at 25NL.
Also I was too passive / not aggressive enough so didnt pick up enough pots to offset being on the receiving end!
I have also mixed in 50NL 6-max and full-ring at Global Poker which, while slower than Ignition Zone, is much softer and not anonymous so players cant get away with some of the garbage they can at anonymous sites like Ignition. I am up $225 this month at Global Poker. This site is like my home game
The downside of Global is that you cant import hand histories or hole cards like Ignition allows, and HUDs dont work (I dont use HUD on zone so not a big deal for me). So it isnt a great site to train but it is a good site to play, profile players play style and exploit.So I'm playing Ignition Zone to train and Global Poker to play my game. Its a good mix!
GL at the tables!
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OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
One thing I’ve noticed is how important 3betting light with semi bluffs is at 25NL. Especially in position, because there are so many ways to win the pot. Past 1,500 or 2,000 hands I noticed I hadn’t been 3betting nearly enough and it has definitely impacted my overall game negatively.
boltonguy
Flush
Here's my setup. Just walked for an hour, walked 2 miles, burned 235 calories, played 276 hands, up $8.26 at 5NL zone(6-max anonymous fast fold).
Good session! I try and get a session in 4 times a week.
Good session! I try and get a session in 4 times a week.
boltonguy
Flush
Just over 10k hands at 5NL zone (anonymous 6-max fast fold) on Ignition in the past 3 months.
boltonguy
Flush
And stats by position.
boltonguy
Flush
How's it going Chester? I've made some slight modifications to my game and am beating 25NL Zone at 6BB/100 this month!
Hope you're crushing it!
Hope you're crushing it!
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
Honestly, I got bored and stalled out at around 6000-6500 hands. Had been doing well, I think around 16BB/100, but just didn’t have any passion for the grind. The money won wasn’t worth the time invested.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
I think I just prefer live poker over online, is what it really comes down to.
boltonguy
Flush
GL man! Hope we get back to live poker some day soon!
johnnyesper
Two Pair
Im just following the thread now. You are doing what I'm doing at this point except with MUCH lower stakes. Early this year I flammed out horribly in 10 nl on BetOnline. I've learned a bunch over the summer. I'm now doing ACR 2nl and seeing very good results. My avg hands per hour are about the same as yours. I'm glad I'm, not the only "grinder" that is doing only 5-10 hrs a week. It will take a while to get to 10k.
boltonguy
Flush
.
OP
OP
Chester Copperpot
Two Pair
Played a few nights over the past few weeks. Not much, but a few hundred hands. Might try to finish off the 10,000. The break was good for me.
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