Well, it's finally done. I have finished the 10,000 hand pirate treasure challenge. The first thing I'll say is that I'm glad I done. It took a lot longer than I thought it would - but that's because I took a lot of breaks and some time where I didn't play. I know people will say 10,000 hands isn't a big sample, and I know it isn't, but it sure feels like it when you're playing full ring, one or two tables at a time. I think I could've ground through a ton more hands playing zone or six-max, but this was the route I chose, for better or worse. I wanted to take in the full experience. It certainly slowed down progress, but I think I probably got value out of that approach.
I came into this not a super experienced online poker player. I wasn't sure what to expect. I was under-rolled with about 5 buy-ins when I started. I'd built that up from an initial $50 deposit by playing $3 and $7 SNGs. At first I was risk averse to cash games - they seemed more daunting. But I also got tired of racing against the clock in tournaments, and wanted something a bit more chilled out. So I decided to play online cash games.
I needed to decide what stake - and I thought I'd start at 10NL. After thinking about it some more, I decided to start at 25NL, against probably what most people would advise. My thoughts were pretty much this: I'm a smart guy and learn quickly, I'd done a decent amount of various kinds of study and had a good grasp of fundamentals (or at least I thought), and let's be real, 25NL isn't high stakes, and I can afford to refill the roll as necessary. So I gave it a go, thinking I'd play against better players, and by playing full ring and just one or two tables, could really concentrate on all aspects and learn more quickly.
It was a wild start, and it took me a while to get the feel of 25NL. I'd played very limited 10NL prior to this, in the range of hundreds of hands, so I'm not sure I can tell a huge difference between the two, but I can say there are a good number of both fish and regs at 25NL.
So, let's take a look at some of my stats:
I never played six max, but I think I joined a few tables that were six-handed and they registered as six-max for some reason. I think I can combine those, but I'm too lazy to figure it out.
I feel good about my PFR percentage, and generally feel good about VPIP. I think they could probably be a bit tighter. I think there were a lot of times I overdefended the BB and also flat called set mining or for other reasons. I think if I did another 10,000, the numbers may be a bit tighter. I think I more or less feel good about the other stats here, but don't really know. Open to all feedback. Most of my stats seem to be within normal ranges within the leak tracker.
Additional stats:
I feel really good about the cbet succcess rate. I generally used a larger cbet size, and I think that with consistent 3betting did a good job of inflating pot sizes, and the success rate probably did a good job inflating my overall win rate. I'm not really sure what these numbers should be, but hopefully they're around where they need to be.
Now, let's look at some graphs. I'll start by saying that I know with only a sample of 10,000 hands, my win rate can have a very large margin of error. I also know that I was playing on what I've read is the softest site, and generally at the softest times, so I'm sure that helped the win rate too. Bottom line, just not sure what to make of the win rate, except that I probably played pretty decent poker for 25NL most of the time. And I'm sure there was a degree of running hot, too.
On the flip side, over 10,000 hands, it's incredible how many dumb plays I made. How many stacks I donked off to uncapped ranges, how many dumb bluffs got picked off, etc. Even smaller leaks like overfolding I'm sure happened a lot. I generally played on instinct. I think I've absorbed a lot and just have an innate feel - and honestly it's not too hard. How does your range connect with the board, is your hand made, how can it improve, how much can improve, what's the price to continue, how does board match villain range, do the stories make sense, etc. But I'm not out there running solvers, not even really reviewing hands after the fact, not using preflop charts, etc. Really just playing based on what feels good.
So here's my first overall graph:
As you can see, a pretty big drop off at the end, which I'm disappointed in. The massive drop at 9700 hands was playing pocket aces terribly and paying the price. A couple of bad run outs/bad beats as well. It happens. Mostly just wish I could have that hand with pocket aces back. As you can see, the start was pretty wild as I got used to the level. Lots of ups and downs. In general, the graph seems pretty volatile with lots of ups and downs. Not sure if it supposed to look like that, or be smoother. But again, I think the tendency to 3bet generally consistently and use larger bet sizes allowed me to play for bigger pots.
Next graph is showdown/non-showdown winnings.
Except for the precipitous drop at the end on showdowns, I'm pretty pleased with this. Happy to have both in the positive.
And finally, because it's best to bring up to show how bad you've actually been running and to make excuses for poor performance in the finest traditions of poker players, here's my all-in expected EV graph.
So, I guess that's it. Thanks to everyone who has followed along. I really didn't post as many hands as I thought I would, because I just never really wanted to study. I'm not sure what's next for me. I don't know if I'll continue at 25NL as I am, or maybe add another table or two, or even take a shot at 50NL.
Overall, I am just glad to be done and of course, I'm very happy with the result. It was not expected when I started. Anyway, I'm happy to answer any questions about this all.
