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COVID-19 (Corona virous) and your home game? (5 Viewers)

PlayerADK said:
Being as close to westchester as you are - I don't blame you! Spreading crazy fast in eastern ny right now.
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I’m 1.5 hours farther north... But we have a very large weekender population, largely from NYC. And we are already seeing an influx of city people looking to isolate better in the country. We don’t have any confirmed cases but the County health director (a sensible guy I’ve known for years) predicts we’ll get slammed. Public meetings are already getting canceled left and right.

I’m at the end of a mile-long dirt road surrounded by forest... I can hunker down here for months if necessary. Bringing 15 players into the house from 7 pm - 3 am isn’t exactly in line with taking sensible precautions.

Upside: Maybe New York finally legalizes online poker.
 
Thomacetti said:
In Belgium all schools are closing down for 5(!) weeks,
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This is not entirely accurate.
lessons in basic schools are suspended but the schools remain open to allow working parents to babysit,another Belgian aberration. Yesterday during the national security council, the Walloons and the Flemish did not manage to agree on the health measures to be taken. Always disagree with the community !!! These half measures taken yesterday by our government will have serious health consequences, ihmo. Yesterday I was ashamed to be Belgian. :tdown:
 
Odranoel77 said:
This is not entirely accurate.
lessons in basic schools are suspended but the schools remain open to allow working parents to babysit,another Belgian aberration. Yesterday during the national security council, the Walloons and the Flemish did not manage to agree on the health measures to be taken. Always disagree with the community !!! These half measures taken yesterday by our government will have serious health consequences, ihmo. Yesterday I was ashamed to be Belgian. :tdown:
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It was the decision in France that triggered it in Belgium...or schools would still be open (like in Netherlands).
Time will tell

At least Belgium is taking action, UK, Netherlands, ... are doing (almost) nothing.
 
What bothers me about this decision is the inconsistency it creates. No more courses but open schools. Either close completely or open completely. Belgium must make its own decisions without taking France or Holland into account.
 
Thomacetti said:
I understand your thought...but the issue is twofold.

1. Very young & old people and people that have a low resistance (cancer threatment, operation recovery, ...) have the risk on fatality

2. And this is the BIG issue....if the peak of contamination is very steep...the healthcare system will implode (like a run on the bank)
Italy is in this situation....you a proper fucked if you should catch something like an appendix infection or a broken knee (operations).
That is what other countries are trying to avoid. In Belgium all schools are closing down for 5(!) weeks, all restaurants, bars, ... have to close (3 weeks), all sport &
other events are canceled. Stores are open but people are stocking BIG.

My both parents are in quarantine but doing well
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I'm very glad your parents are doing ok. I also understand the issues with slowing down the virus spread to allow the healthcare system to catch up (avoid being overwhelmed). I'm not opposed to folks canceling events to promote social distancing. I think we can slow it down, but eventually we'll all get exposed in some fashion. My qualm is that people are treating this like ebola, or the next zombie apocolypse. People are buying up supplies like TP and hand sanitizer in amounts I've only seen on reality TV show about coupon clippers.. In amounts they'll never be able to use. And though this poses some risk to the elderly and infirm, it's also not likely to be any more deadly than a bad flu year... The Flu kills 30,000 people in the US each year. I don't want 30,000 (or even 5) people to die from Corona, but last year (at the start of flu season), I didn't see people going apeshit about hand washing and hygiene (which would have been nice). It's the double standard, that the 30,000 people that died last year from the flu weren't that important (enough to focus on hand washing), but now they suddenly care?

Praying everyone remains healthy (especially your folks).
 
Trihonda said:
People are buying up supplies like TP and hand sanitizer in amounts I've only seen on reality TV show about coupon clippers.. In amounts they'll never be able to use.
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I haven’t sat down to run the numbers on how much more toilet paper I’ll need before I die, but I’m hopeful it will be more than 30-50 rolls.

And if I die before then, my heirs probably can use it. ;^)
 
Trihonda said:
I'm very glad your parents are doing ok. I also understand the issues with slowing down the virus spread to allow the healthcare system to catch up (avoid being overwhelmed). I'm not opposed to folks canceling events to promote social distancing. I think we can slow it down, but eventually we'll all get exposed in some fashion. My qualm is that people are treating this like ebola, or the next zombie apocolypse. People are buying up supplies like TP and hand sanitizer in amounts I've only seen on reality TV show about coupon clippers.. In amounts they'll never be able to use. And though this poses some risk to the elderly and infirm, it's also not likely to be any more deadly than a bad flu year... The Flu kills 30,000 people in the US each year. I don't want 30,000 (or even 5) people to die from Corona, but last year (at the start of flu season), I didn't see people going apeshit about hand washing and hygiene (which would have been nice). It's the double standard, that the 30,000 people that died last year from the flu weren't that important (enough to focus on hand washing), but now they suddenly care?

Praying everyone remains healthy (especially your folks).
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Thoughts and prayers have worked great so far!

I totally get how comparing the two makes sense. It's the popular thing to do.

Here's the rub.

According to the CDC, the mortality rate is 60x higher for those who catch the Coronavirus. (0.05% versus 3.1%). In other words, 1 in 2000 people who catch the common flu will not survive compared to 1 in 33 for the Coronavirus.

Then there is the reproduction number, an estimate of how many people will become infected by someone who carries the Coronavirus, which is 2.2 versus 1.3 for the common flu.

Now that you know, what do you think the annual death rate would be for the Coronavirus if we treated it like the common flu?
 
Mojo1312 said:
Thoughts and prayers have worked great so far!

I totally get how comparing the two makes sense. It's the popular thing to do.

Here's the rub.

According to the CDC, the mortality rate is 60x higher for those who catch the Coronavirus. (0.05% versus 3.1%). In other words, 1 in 2000 people who catch the common flu will not survive compared to 1 in 33 for the Coronavirus.

Then there is the reproduction number, an estimate of how many people will become infected by someone who carries the Coronavirus, which is 2.2 versus 1.3 for the common flu.

Now that you know, what do you think the annual death rate would be for the Coronavirus if we treated it like the common flu?
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quick question about the mortality rate - is that actual or predicted? I only ask because info like this link below floats around from state health departments, and number like this could greatly affect that calculation if it's actual death rates.

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news...says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus

Not trying to spark a argument because no way in hell does any of us have enough factual information to argue anything, just pointing out that there’s numbers everywhere, and anybody that’s not a trained statistician can interpret data in different ways and be misled easily - this applies to both sides of the fence or whatever barrier people are arguing over. Especially in the media blitz that this is generating, every source has a different view and it changes constantly each day based on whatever info they believe at the moment.

here’s an excerpt from another article below, and even if you don’t agree with any numbers anywhere I think the concept and ideas are valid and should be considered when throwing “official” numbers around

“The fatality rate of the novel coronavirus is still evolving, however, as more cases are confirmed. Many health experts believe that the rate will drop as the number of cases rises. That's because an estimated 80% of coronavirus cases are mild, and patients checking into hospitals have the most severe symptoms. People with symptoms mild enough to recover at home without seeking medical treatment aren't counted in the official totals.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3?amp
 
Trihonda said:
I'm very glad your parents are doing ok. I also understand the issues with slowing down the virus spread to allow the healthcare system to catch up (avoid being overwhelmed). I'm not opposed to folks canceling events to promote social distancing. I think we can slow it down, but eventually we'll all get exposed in some fashion. My qualm is that people are treating this like ebola, or the next zombie apocolypse. People are buying up supplies like TP and hand sanitizer in amounts I've only seen on reality TV show about coupon clippers.. In amounts they'll never be able to use. And though this poses some risk to the elderly and infirm, it's also not likely to be any more deadly than a bad flu year... The Flu kills 30,000 people in the US each year. I don't want 30,000 (or even 5) people to die from Corona, but last year (at the start of flu season), I didn't see people going apeshit about hand washing and hygiene (which would have been nice). It's the double standard, that the 30,000 people that died last year from the flu weren't that important (enough to focus on hand washing), but now they suddenly care?

Praying everyone remains healthy (especially your folks).
Click to expand...
There’s a big difference between shaking your head at toilet paper hoarders and suggesting that this isn’t any more dangerous than the flu.
I hope you’re right. But I also hope to win the lottery.
 
Trihonda said:
And though this poses some risk to the elderly and infirm, it's also not likely to be any more deadly than a bad flu year... The Flu kills 30,000 people in the US each year. I don't want 30,000 (or even 5) people to die from Corona, but last year (at the start of flu season), I didn't see people going apeshit about hand washing and hygiene (which would have been nice).
Click to expand...

I say this with sincerity: please find better sources for your information. This garbage argument has been refuted so many times over I’m surprised to still hear it.
 
ekricket said:
quick question about the mortality rate - is that actual or predicted?
Click to expand...

I think both are floating around.

The U.S. is behind many other countries both in testing and the progress of the virus. So I don’t think we have sample sizes big enough to know yet.

Countries like Italy and China are farther along so I believe reported death rates from those places are more relevant.

This site reports stats from Italy which indicate a *** 7% *** death rate, if my math is correct.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The same site gives a 3.4% death rate for China.

Iran is apparently a disaster area, but news from there is scarcer and more controlled, I think. The site above indicates an actual rate of about 4.5%.

All of these are above the predicted rates for the US that I’ve seen most commonly, between 2% and 3%.
 
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upNdown said:
If it's a tournament, sure. If it's a cash game, no. Pokerstars takes a rake off of play money cash tables. It would be impossible to track people's winnings and losings.
Though, I suppose you could just do a flip at the end of the night for all the missing rake money. Gambol!!!!!
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I learned this on the fly last night :[
 
Trihonda said:
My qualm is that people are treating this like ebola, or the next zombie apocolypse. People are buying up supplies like TP and hand sanitizer in amounts I've only seen on reality TV show about coupon clippers.. In amounts they'll never be able to use.
Click to expand...
I don't think you'll get an argument from any of us that this is stupid, but don't get this confused with being properly cautious like putting a hold on home games.

Trihonda said:
And though this poses some risk to the elderly and infirm, it's also not likely to be any more deadly than a bad flu year...
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Even the most optimistic estimates are more than this. Again, no one has an immunity to this new disease, so many more will contract it. If the death rate ends up as the same as the flu (only possible if the healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed and the virus isn't as deadly as it seems so far) and 50% of the US population contracts it, that's still about 160K dead. If the death rate is about 1%, that's 1.6M dead. So your assumption that it's not likely to be any more deadly than a bad flu year is quite incorrect.
 
halfbreed said:
I don't think you'll get an argument from any of us that this is stupid, but don't get this confused with being properly cautious like putting a hold on home games.


Even the most optimistic estimates are more than this. Again, no one has an immunity to this new disease, so many more will contract it. If the death rate ends up as the same as the flu (only possible if the healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed and the virus isn't as deadly as it seems so far) and 50% of the US population contracts it, that's still about 160K dead. If the death rate is about 1%, that's 1.6M dead. So your assumption that it's not likely to be any more deadly than a bad flu year is quite incorrect.
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Except (if you believe the numbers from China) it has only affected .005% of their population with only 10 cases in the last 24hrs. South Korea is at .015 of their population affected..so far..but they have tested over 250,000 ppl so far so they are catching many of the mild cases too. Italy is at .029% of their population infected....so far, probably considered the biggest cluster eff thus far. On a cruise ship of 3700 ppl only 700 got infected (as near as I can tell 8 days of cruising exposure before the quarantine, with much controversy over how effective the quarantine was) so far 7 have perished (6 of those 7 are verified to be in their 70’s and 80’s, the last one I cannot find an age for) Is it worse than the flu..probably, is it as bad as portrayed I’m doubtful. Is caution warranted....it’s not a bad thing
 
RowdyRawhide said:
Except (if you believe the numbers from China) it has only affected .005% of their population with only 10 cases in the last 24hrs. South Korea is at .015 of their population affected..so far..but they have tested over 250,000 ppl so far so they are catching many of the mild cases too. Italy is at .029% of their population infected....so far, probably considered the biggest cluster eff thus far. On a cruise ship of 3700 ppl only 700 got infected (as near as I can tell 8 days of cruising exposure before the quarantine, with much controversy over how effective the quarantine was) so far 7 have perished (6 of those 7 are verified to be in their 70’s and 80’s, the last one I cannot find an age for) Is it worse than the flu..probably, is it as bad as portrayed I’m doubtful. Is caution warranted....it’s not a bad thing
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The world is super early in the cycle. Also, China and S.Korea did a pretty good job of locking infected areas down. Could it end up being a lot better than 160K dead in the US? If precautions are taken and the virus is harder to transmit/less deadly that thought, sure. But experts seem to think that's unlikely.

Of course everyone hopes it won't be as bad as we think it might be, but when experts say it will likely be bad, why would you gamble putting yourself and others at risk and not take precautions?
 
RowdyRawhide said:
Except (if you believe the numbers from China) it has only affected .005% of their population with only 10 cases in the last 24hrs. South Korea is at .015 of their population affected..so far..but they have tested over 250,000 ppl so far so they are catching many of the mild cases too. Italy is at .029% of their population infected....so far, probably considered the biggest cluster eff thus far. On a cruise ship of 3700 ppl only 700 got infected (as near as I can tell 8 days of cruising exposure before the quarantine, with much controversy over how effective the quarantine was) so far 7 have perished (6 of those 7 are verified to be in their 70’s and 80’s, the last one I cannot find an age for) Is it worse than the flu..probably, is it as bad as portrayed I’m doubtful. Is caution warranted....it’s not a bad thing
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In relation to the cruise ship do they know who had it before they got on the ship or how many? Anything to say it wasn’t 1 person who was just exposed the day they boarded (and may not be contagious for a few more days) and who that person was? AKA what was their role and exposure to other passengers?
 
ReallyGoodUsername said:
In relation to the cruise ship do they know who had it before they got on the ship or how many? Anything to say it wasn’t 1 person who was just exposed the day they boarded (and may not be contagious for a few more days) and who that person was? AKA what was their role and exposure to other passengers?
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1 person rode the cruise ship for 5 days before disembarking and then finding out he was positive. Took another 72 hrs to to stop the ship. 10 people tested positive at the time if quarantine. By the time it was all said and done approx 700 passengers infected. You can Google it. I assure you there's as much reading as you want to do about it....I have for hours. I'm not throwing random piles of shit at the wall hoping they stick.
 

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