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Hand Analysis - $100/$200/$400 NLHE Home Game (2 Viewers)

Windwalker said:
Turn is :tc:

Hero?
Click to expand...

jonah-hill-fuck-me-right.gif


Only worse turn would've been the :ts:.

If the villain isn't cognizant of the concept of ranges (i.e. still level 1 thinking) we can bet/fold here.

If the villain does employ higher level thinking, we can check/call a modest bet at least.

Given the villain's description, I don't think ranges matter against this opponent. Represent the straight and bet a healthy amount, somewhere around $21,000.
 
Windwalker said:
Hero bets $5,000.
UTG+2 Villain pauses for a bit, then calls.
BB villain thinks for a second, and then folds.

Turn is :tc:

Hero?
Click to expand...
What do we make of Villain's body language? Does he always do this before taking action? Or does he snap-call/fold when he knows what he wants to do right away?

If we're going to give consideration to body-language tells (this information was included for a reason, right?) what was Villain contemplating?

Was he considering folding but found a call? Was he pondering a raise?

As to the action, I'm betting again to avoid giving a free card to a FD. Obviously folding to a raise. It's kind of hard for HERO to rep a 9 here but Villain may fear it and muck a 2-pair type hand (he's described as a 'tight player'), which would be miraculous. It's possible the Villain is as uncomfortable with this turn card as HERO probably is.
 
Moxie Mike said:
What do we make of Villain's body language? Does he always do this before taking action? Or do he snap-call/fold when he knows what he wants to do right away?

If we're going to give consideration to body-language tells (this information was included for a reason, right?) what was Villain contemplating?

Was he considering folding but found a call? Was he pondering a raise?

As to the action, I'm betting again to avoid giving a free card to a FD. Obviously folding to a raise. It's kind of hard for HERO to rep a 9 here but Villain may fear it a muck a 2-pair type hand (he's described as a 'tight player'), which would be miraculous. It's possible the Villain is as uncomfortable with this turn card as HERO probably is.
Click to expand...

Good question. In my 3 games of playing with him, he’s shown good instincts, but relatively first level thinking. The call on the $5k makes me fully believe he’s on a draw. My top contenders for his hands when he called were:

AsXs, JTs, KQs, 55, 99.

Maybe 89s, but didn’t feel like he’d call the $4800 with that. At this point, I don’t think he’s thinking about what kind of hand I have.
 
Why are you discounting 67, 78, 68, and maybe even 45? If you know V is raising those on the flop, then the range you list is a great time to barrel, maybe a $10k raise. If V might just float the flop (trap) with those holdings, I'd consider a check-call here. That said, there are not many cards that should make you happy on the river.
 
apchipper said:
Why are you discounting 67, 78, 68, and maybe even 45? If you know V is raising those on the flop, then the range you list is a great time to barrel, maybe a $10k raise. If V might just float the flop (trap) with those holdings, I'd consider a check-call here. That said, there are not many cards that should make you happy on the river.
Click to expand...
Discounting those because the way he plays, he would definitely raise with 2 pair, and flush draw on the board. I don’t think he’d play 45 against my preflop raise.
 
Well, there's more flush draw combos villain could have than straight draw combos, right? So looking at his range, it should weigh heavier with flush draws than straights.

Given villain is a fit-or-fold type based on the OP, I think we can bet the turn headsup here, as our opponent should play their hand face-up most of the time. I like a bet of 15K with plans to fold to a raise.

You could check and expect if he's drawing he'll also check, but now we're giving him a free card and we won't extract any additional value on the river from missed draws. And if the turn helped him we should find out about it when we bet.
 
Well, I’m happy we didn’t get raised on the flop, so that’s good. Turn isn’t a great card for us. As played (and again I would have preferred a flop check), we now have to think “how many streets of value am I expecting to get against a worse hand when I have an overpair on this board?” I think the answer here is 1-2 streets, definitely not 3. If we bet flop 1/3, then I say we check turn for deception & pot control. I think that if we would have had the flop check through, we could have actually lead the turn for a larger sizing. We are still in a spot where we are likely to fold to a big raise, so would be cautious. a check here can also induce a bluff from villains 9x, although maybe he underbluffs in these spots. It’s hard to know how much to trust your in game reads, from a limited sample size. My sense is that your reads are leading you to want to value bet thinner and bomb turn here, but I prefer a cautious route to the river.
 
Senzrock said:
Well, I’m happy we didn’t get raised on the flop, so that’s good. Turn isn’t a great card for us. As played (and again I would have preferred a flop check), we now have to think “how many streets of value am I expecting to get against a worse hand when I have an overpair on this board?” I think the answer here is 1-2 streets, definitely not 3. If we bet flop 1/3, then I say we check turn for deception & pot control. I think that if we would have had the flop check through, we could have actually lead the turn for a larger sizing. We are still in a spot where we are likely to fold to a big raise, so would be cautious. a check here can also induce a bluff from villains 9x, although maybe he underbluffs in these spots. It’s hard to know how much to trust your in game reads, from a limited sample size. My sense is that your reads are leading you to want to value bet thinner and bomb turn here, but I prefer a cautious route to the river.
Click to expand...
If we agree with the premise that QQ is only worth 1-2 streets of value, we should think through what other potential street we want to bet. I like he turn check and then betting river for value if it bricks. If we do bet turn, we have to have a plan vs both a raise and a call. If we fold to a raise then the check seems ideal. If we think we can call a raise here, you have a better argument to bet turn again, I just don’t see how you are in good shape. If we bet and villain calls, I think river is a mandatory check in order to pick off some missed FD or straight draws turned bluffs.
 
Giving free cards on the flop is really not that big of a deal considering the hands that call are not really that far behind on average. And the hands that fold to a small bet are ones that have piss poor equity anyways.

I’d lean more towards betting with queens than with a hand like aces because at least now you’re folding out a few more stray over cards but I’d just check most hands here.

The benefit of betting when things go right is small relative to the costs of the competent players running bluffs in these spots because of how capped your range is (where there’s isn’t) and how easy it is for them to have hands with high equity against the top of your range.

I also just think the guy in the bb will tend to have a range that smacks that board pretty hard. He’s probably not calling the large 3bet oop with bad suites aces, and big aces or broadways like KQs that may want to call the large 3bet are likely to raise against the open limo before action got to you. What else does that leave? Low to mid pairs and suited connectors that weren’t good enough to raise against a limp from an amateur mostly.


Given it was the beginner who called, check the turn and interpret his sizing. Straight forward beginner players tend to bet as big as their hand is good. Your hand is behind any reasonable range now and betting will fold out better hands very rarely. You’d check against a good player too - you just might be in a more difficult spot if they bet.
 
Late to the party here, interesting hand.
PREFLOP: I like the larger sizing preflop, 4800 fine and given stack depths I don't think 6k is too large with this holding.

FLOP: Easy small continuation bet into two players, many and even most flops will not hit our range, and while this flop clearly hits our opponents' limp-calling ranges, we still have an *actual* strong hand and a strong *range* with an over pair to the board that is ahead of most limp-calling hands, even on this flop. The flop (and even this particular flop) is not the time to start checking, since it results in:
(i) moving Hero from an aggressive posture to a defensive posture, not generally a winning move in poker;
(ii) Hero relinquishes the betting lead and no longer gets to name his price which could cost more than a small continuation bet;
(iii) by under-representing Hero's hand with a check, while deceptive, it is also likely to emboldening our opponent(s) into making bluffs that may not have been ventured if Hero continued with a straight-forward representation of strength; and
(iv) perhaps worst of all, as has been mentioned, gives two lesser hands free cards resulting in what my hero calls a statistical catastrophe against draws.

In sum, a Flop check would actually lead Hero *into* The Void, since Hero has no meaningful info to use to interpret possible bet by villain or lead off bet on turn by the pro. A bet here accomplishes what Hero wants in i-iv, and keeps Hero out of the information void; i.e. a Hero continuation bet followed by either a raise by villain, or check-raise by Pro, is more likely to represent real strength.

TURN: Horrible turn, but I still like a medium sized bet-fold turn strategy here (maybe around one third of the pot) against this villain. Given the limited experience of this player, and that he is playing relatively "straight forward" (i.e. not trappy), we would expect him to raise his made draws and Hero can safely fold to any villain raises here since QQ is likely far behind any hand that villain would raise here. So this med size bet accomplishes two things, it is large enough to give villain an opportunity to get away, and if he chooses to stay, it charges him (enough) for the draw.

Plan is to check coordinated river cards (all spades, and any 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) and value bet river blanks (including all non-spade 2, 3, T, J, Q, K, A).
 
Accounting for inflation, 100/200/400 is like last month’s 10¢/20¢/40¢.

Let ‘er rip and have fun with the hand.
 
Stackme said:
In sum, a Flop check would actually lead Hero *into* The Void, since Hero has no meaningful info to use to interpret possible bet by villain or lead off bet on turn by the pro. A bet here accomplishes what Hero wants in i-iv, and keeps Hero out of the information void; i.e. a Hero continuation bet followed by either a raise by villain, or check-raise by Pro, is more likely to represent real strength.
Click to expand...
This is basically a fancy way of saying “I like betting for information” and that’s a strategy I don’t think is profitable. When we bet and villain calls, what information are we getting? That they have a hand? Do we know if we are ahead for sure? No, they could be slow playing to win a massive pot. Do we know we are behind? No, we might still be ahead of some combo draws. If they raise, are we always behind? No, they could be playing draws aggressively (and could force us to lay down the best hand). Villains range has so many options against us here because they do have all the straights while we shouldn’t have any. They do have all the sets while we shouldn't have many. They have most of the combo draws. It’s just a terrible board and it’s OK to play conservatively when that happens.

The turn is one of many bad cards in the deck, so now the pot is bigger, and we are forced to rely on a small data sample read that villain likely would have raised here with a hand that beats us. Betting again is just one step removed from a hope and a prayer lol.
 
Last edited:
To clarify, with this bad Turn I am in check-call mode unless I have reason to do otherwise. Here, with the live reads Hero has on this particular villain I feel its too early to give up on this hand since we have a good sense he's either on a draw or has made his draw. A Turn bet against this player is for value charging his draws and Hero can comfortably fold when raised. Although a check does allow us to fold to any villain bet (made draw), a turn check with a villain check back lets us know villain is still drawing and fails to charge him for it (lost value). I think I still like a turn bet for value in this spot against this villain since we have no reason to believe he has a big hand yet, but this is balanced against downside of increasing the size of the pot where we could be behind.
 
Continuing.

Villain is new to high stakes poker. 22-year old crypto kid, billionaire dad. This is his 4th game with our group. Biggest game he played before that was a $10/$20 NLHE. He's coming off a high of having had an insanely run-good in his 3rd game the previous weekend, with profits of over $750K. He's not super experienced, and tends to break flow and lead out when he has a good hand. Relatively tight, and makes decent decisions. Hero is usual loose-aggressive.

Stacks: H - $380K, V - ~$500K.
Hero is up about $80k, V is up about $100k.

Hero is in the straddle, Villain is UTG+2. 7 handed game, about 3 hours into play. 100/200 with a perma-straddle UTG to $400.

Villain calls straddle. Small and big blinds call. BB is a pro, big cash game player from Vegas. SB is a well-known poker personality, semi-pro. Both are aggressive players.

Hero looks down at :qs::qd:.

Pro is eager to play hands with both H and V, and is most likely going to call a small raise with a wide range, planning to outplay on the flop. We need a raise that will fold most of his outer range, like AxS.

Hero raises to $4,800.

Villain calls.
SB folds.
BB Pro takes some time, calls.

Flop is :6s::8s::7d:

BB checks. He has about $200k behind, down about $100k.

Right away, the flop isn't great for us, given the limp-call range of our UTG+2 villain. Hero considers a check, but given how tight UTG+2 villain is, and how aggressive BB Villain is, decides on a small-ish bet.

We expect, given his prior plays, for UTG+2 Villain to raise if he has something (like top pair with an Ace, 2 pair or a set), and call if he's drawing. He almost always calls when he's drawing.

We expect BB Villain, given his extreme TAG image for the last 3 hours, to fold if he has air, raise if he's made a big hand like a set or 2 pair, and call if he's on a draw. We think he may also raise with a big combo draw or sometimes bluff the pot, especially if UTG+2 doesn't call.

Checking controls the pot, but doesn't necessarily give us additional information. Or at least, that was the logic I went in with.

Hero bets $5,000.
UTG+2 Villain pauses for a bit, then calls.
BB villain thinks for a second, and then folds.

Turn is :tc:

So, given Hero has a penchant to overplay large pairs, and is stubborn about his live reads, he’s convinced himself that he is now fully aware and locked in on Villain’s range. Clearly, this has been his public downfall many a time, but has also paid off in other places. The HCL river call against Tom Dwan betting with air comes to mind.

We’re now convinced villain is playing one of the following hands:

Likely: A10s, A3s, A2s, KJs, J10s
Possible: 55, 99, A5s, A9s
Possible, less likely: 89s, A4s, A7s

Of all those, currently only 3 have made his hand, and they fall within the possible and possible, less likely scenario.

Hero decides that villain is mostly likely on a flush draw, and decides to make it an expensive card for villain to get.

Hero bets $30,000.
Villain takes a very long tank, almost 2 minutes. He calls.

River is :js:. (Hero is reminded that is probably time to start coaching again with @Senzrock.)

Hero?
 
that card just eliminated all possible bluffs, gross spot. but if your options are blocking or essentially check folding, i think check folding is better here. checkraise bluff? idk that one is a bit too advanced for me.
 
I feel kinda stupid commenting since my games are 1/800th of this. But fwiw, I like the preflop play, can sorta get behind a small flop bet (although preferring a check), hate the turn bet. So I would never arrive to the river like this but I would 100% check now and most likely fold to any kind of significant bet.
 
Windwalker said:
River is :js:.

Hero?
Click to expand...

5nrfPEm-VUYcpx9jVHKwybh4jwc=.gif


I'll be gobsmacked if you somehow take this pot down. It'll be beyond hilarious if the villain has the other two queens and you chop.

You have led out on the flop and turn, AND you have the :qs: so you could have played :ks::qs: or :as::qs:in this same manner throughout the hand. But like I said before, ranges probably don't apply to this particular opponent. Check and see what the reply is from the villain.
 
Windwalker said:
Hero decides that villain is mostly likely on a flush draw, and decides to make it an expensive card for villain to get.

Hero bets $30,000.
Villain takes a very long tank, almost 2 minutes. He calls.

River is :js:. (Hero is reminded that is probably time to start coaching again with @Senzrock.)

Hero?
Click to expand...
I'm not putting him on a FD after tanking and then calling a massive turn bet. He should be savvy enough to know he's being laid a terrible price with basically zero implied odds if he hits.

But what else is there? HERO stated Villain would have raised a flopped set or 2 pair. Maybe he's sandbagging a 9 and was contemplating the best way to extract value?

I think it's hard to justify betting here. What is HERO really representing with the lines he's taken? He's already barreled 3 times and can't get the kid off his hand. HERO was more or less repping a 9 on the turn. A blocker bet continues to tell that story but that just feels like lighting money on fire.

So I guess checking is best... if the Villain makes a comically small bet maybe HERO pays it off... but this is just so gross.
 
Check or small block bet on river with intention of folding to a raise from villain, and crossing fingers hoping he has 55 that didn't get there. Then also consider signing up for poker coaching from Senzrock :)
 
Conclusion.

Villain is new to high stakes poker. 22-year old crypto kid, billionaire dad. This is his 4th game with our group. Biggest game he played before that was a $10/$20 NLHE. He's coming off a high of having had an insanely run-good in his 3rd game the previous weekend, with profits of over $750K. He's not super experienced, and tends to break flow and lead out when he has a good hand. Relatively tight, and makes decent decisions. Hero is usual loose-aggressive.

Stacks: H - $380K, V - ~$500K.
Hero is up about $80k, V is up about $100k.

Hero is in the straddle, Villain is UTG+2. 7 handed game, about 3 hours into play. 100/200 with a perma-straddle UTG to $400.

Villain calls straddle. Small and big blinds call. BB is a pro, big cash game player from Vegas. SB is a well-known poker personality, semi-pro. Both are aggressive players.

Hero looks down at :qs::qd:.

Pro is eager to play hands with both H and V, and is most likely going to call a small raise with a wide range, planning to outplay on the flop. We need a raise that will fold most of his outer range, like AxS.

Hero raises to $4,800.

Villain calls.
SB folds.
BB Pro takes some time, calls.

Flop is :6s::8s::7d:

BB checks. He has about $200k behind, down about $100k.

Right away, the flop isn't great for us, given the limp-call range of our UTG+2 villain. Hero considers a check, but given how tight UTG+2 villain is, and how aggressive BB Villain is, decides on a small-ish bet.

We expect, given his prior plays, for UTG+2 Villain to raise if he has something (like top pair with an Ace, 2 pair or a set), and call if he's drawing. He almost always calls when he's drawing.

We expect BB Villain, given his extreme TAG image for the last 3 hours, to fold if he has air, raise if he's made a big hand like a set or 2 pair, and call if he's on a draw. We think he may also raise with a big combo draw or sometimes bluff the pot, especially if UTG+2 doesn't call.

Checking controls the pot, but doesn't necessarily give us additional information. Or at least, that was the logic I went in with.

Hero bets $5,000.
UTG+2 Villain pauses for a bit, then calls.
BB villain thinks for a second, and then folds.

Turn is :tc:

So, given Hero has a penchant to overplay large pairs, and is stubborn about his live reads, he’s convinced himself that he is now fully aware and locked in on Villain’s range. Clearly, this has been his public downfall many a time, but has also paid off in other places. The HCL river call against Tom Dwan betting with air comes to mind.

We’re now convinced villain is playing one of the following hands:

Likely: A10s, A3s, A2s, KJs, J10s
Possible: 55, 99, A5s, A9s
Possible, less likely: 89s, A4s, A7s

Of all those, currently only 3 have made his hand, and they fall within the possible and possible, less likely scenario.

Hero decides that villain is mostly likely on a flush draw, and decides to make it an expensive card for villain to get.

Hero bets $30,000.
Villain takes a very long tank, almost 2 minutes. He calls.

River is :js:. (Hero is reminded that is probably time to start coaching again with @Senzrock.)

As stated earlier, I have made up my mind about his exact range:

We’re now convinced villain is playing one of the following hands:

Likely: A10s, A3s, A2s, KJs, J10s
Possible: 55, 99, A5s, A9s
Possible, less likely: 89s, A4s, A7s

Hero thinks for a bit. But not really thinking. Just a bit of time posture. We check.

Villain tanks. For a VERY long time. 3 minutes at least. And then he pushes all-in.

This sets of all kinds of alarm bells. The all-in is surprising. We’re expecting a value bet that might induce a call. Maybe a pot sized bed. Usually a 2/3rd or 1/2 pot sized bet. But he’s putting me in additional $340k. On the other hand, it could be an overbet to make me think he’s bluffing. But he doesn’t usually play that way. So I’m confused.

The longer I take, the more he’s visibly nervous, though. I’m starting to really think he’s bluffing, but I can’t be certain. So I think about the only hand that he could have been calling with, but didn’t get there. And it occurs to me that there’s maybe 2 hands: 55s and A5o.

After a while of debating, I decide that he’s new enough to high stakes that I can talk some info out of him.

I turn my cards face up, showing the queens. I say to him — “look, I don’t think you have a flush, and I think you’ve been chasing a straight with a pair of 5s, or maybe a single 5. Most likely the pair of 5s, because you assumed you had 10 outs, including spiking a set. I’m most likely going to call. But because you’re new to the game, I’ll give you one option - you can take it or leave it. You can take your all-in bet back, and I take the current pot. Or, I call, and you lose $380k. Your choice, but you have to decide now.”

Villain looks at me, and asks the host if that’s a binding offer. Host says that’s allowed. He accepts the offer, and mucks his hand.
 
Windwalker said:
Conclusion.

Villain is new to high stakes poker. 22-year old crypto kid, billionaire dad. This is his 4th game with our group. Biggest game he played before that was a $10/$20 NLHE. He's coming off a high of having had an insanely run-good in his 3rd game the previous weekend, with profits of over $750K. He's not super experienced, and tends to break flow and lead out when he has a good hand. Relatively tight, and makes decent decisions. Hero is usual loose-aggressive.

Stacks: H - $380K, V - ~$500K.
Hero is up about $80k, V is up about $100k.

Hero is in the straddle, Villain is UTG+2. 7 handed game, about 3 hours into play. 100/200 with a perma-straddle UTG to $400.

Villain calls straddle. Small and big blinds call. BB is a pro, big cash game player from Vegas. SB is a well-known poker personality, semi-pro. Both are aggressive players.

Hero looks down at :qs::qd:.

Pro is eager to play hands with both H and V, and is most likely going to call a small raise with a wide range, planning to outplay on the flop. We need a raise that will fold most of his outer range, like AxS.

Hero raises to $4,800.

Villain calls.
SB folds.
BB Pro takes some time, calls.

Flop is :6s::8s::7d:

BB checks. He has about $200k behind, down about $100k.

Right away, the flop isn't great for us, given the limp-call range of our UTG+2 villain. Hero considers a check, but given how tight UTG+2 villain is, and how aggressive BB Villain is, decides on a small-ish bet.

We expect, given his prior plays, for UTG+2 Villain to raise if he has something (like top pair with an Ace, 2 pair or a set), and call if he's drawing. He almost always calls when he's drawing.

We expect BB Villain, given his extreme TAG image for the last 3 hours, to fold if he has air, raise if he's made a big hand like a set or 2 pair, and call if he's on a draw. We think he may also raise with a big combo draw or sometimes bluff the pot, especially if UTG+2 doesn't call.

Checking controls the pot, but doesn't necessarily give us additional information. Or at least, that was the logic I went in with.

Hero bets $5,000.
UTG+2 Villain pauses for a bit, then calls.
BB villain thinks for a second, and then folds.

Turn is :tc:

So, given Hero has a penchant to overplay large pairs, and is stubborn about his live reads, he’s convinced himself that he is now fully aware and locked in on Villain’s range. Clearly, this has been his public downfall many a time, but has also paid off in other places. The HCL river call against Tom Dwan betting with air comes to mind.

We’re now convinced villain is playing one of the following hands:

Likely: A10s, A3s, A2s, KJs, J10s
Possible: 55, 99, A5s, A9s
Possible, less likely: 89s, A4s, A7s

Of all those, currently only 3 have made his hand, and they fall within the possible and possible, less likely scenario.

Hero decides that villain is mostly likely on a flush draw, and decides to make it an expensive card for villain to get.

Hero bets $30,000.
Villain takes a very long tank, almost 2 minutes. He calls.

River is :js:. (Hero is reminded that is probably time to start coaching again with @Senzrock.)

As stated earlier, I have made up my mind about his exact range:

We’re now convinced villain is playing one of the following hands:

Likely: A10s, A3s, A2s, KJs, J10s
Possible: 55, 99, A5s, A9s
Possible, less likely: 89s, A4s, A7s

Hero thinks for a bit. But not really thinking. Just a bit of time posture. We check.

Villain tanks. For a VERY long time. 3 minutes at least. And then he pushes all-in.

This sets of all kinds of alarm bells. The all-in is surprising. We’re expecting a value bet that might induce a call. Maybe a pot sized bed. Usually a 2/3rd or 1/2 pot sized bet. But he’s putting me in additional $340k. On the other hand, it could be an overbet to make me think he’s bluffing. But he doesn’t usually play that way. So I’m confused.

The longer I take, the more he’s visibly nervous, though. I’m starting to really think he’s bluffing, but I can’t be certain. So I think about the only hand that he could have been calling with, but didn’t get there. And it occurs to me that there’s maybe 2 hands: 55s and A5o.

After a while of debating, I decide that he’s new enough to high stakes that I can talk some info out of him.

I turn my cards face up, showing the queens. I say to him — “look, I don’t think you have a flush, and I think you’ve been chasing a straight with a pair of 5s, or maybe a single 5. Most likely the pair of 5s, because you assumed you had 10 outs, including spiking a set. I’m most likely going to call. But because you’re new to the game, I’ll give you one option - you can take it or leave it. You can take your all-in bet back, and I take the current pot. Or, I call, and you lose $380k. Your choice, but you have to decide now.”

Villain looks at me, and asks the host if that’s a binding offer. Host says that’s allowed. He accepts the offer, and mucks his hand.
Click to expand...
That’s WILD
 

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