Hand Analysis - Before it Airs (2 Viewers)

[Kyle]

All good stuff. Ok, continuing...
-----

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero is first to act. Hero?

Check call and evaluate on turn. Looking for a 4 8 or obviously that 7. If any of these cards come out check raise on the turn. If not then go with gut. As you mentioned he can bluff, is on the button. 2nd to last hand may just want to force some action.

 

[Kain8]

BTN is Kenney.

I need to know how many poison frog licks he's done throughout the session before proceeding.

 

[Frogzilla]

After all the shiz button has been getting flak for today cheating high stakes players…I hope you stack him hard.

Flop should be check with entire range including 77.

 

[Windwalker]

Ok, continuing.
---------------

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero?

 

[Frogzilla]

Low card pairing after calling flop is a good situation to lead turn. Upswing called this the poker “cheat code”. It’s better out of the blinds but still applicable here I think. I like to lead 30-40%

 

[JMC9389]

Ok, continuing.
---------------

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero?

Barf.

I bet about half pot to represent a boat and try to take it down.

 

[Kyle]

Ok, continuing.
---------------

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero?

Kinda in same spot now. Do you think he can put you on a 5 or a 6 raising pre under gun. I assume not. Sucks playing poker out of position with a marginal hand. I check and then go with gut. Hope he checks back which is unlikely. Right now you beat ace highs and lower pairs. If you think he has 8's or better no shame in folding to a large bet because you will have same decision on river. All in check raise or fold here. Leaning more on folding.

 

[LeLe]

Isn’t holding 77 at a 2 Low pair board at turn make you either way ahead or way behind ?

Better for a check here and see what the cult leader turn action

Check-call or check-fold are both valid options here

 

[DrStrange]

Preflop - Hero owes $17K to make a $45,500 pot. Effective stack are $455K SPR = 10. Hero's table image makes me think button isn't completely out of line. But "tight" means a lot less on these shows than I typically mean when I say tight. Hero is getting reasonable implied odds to set mine, I vote call > fold > raise.

Flop - well, Hero has to decide if this was a set mining operation or not. Villain has a lot more ace high or Broadway hands vs big pairs. I like a check / call line. Not only does that keep more air in villain's range but it is consistent with how Hero would play trip sixes.

Turn - Hero's situation didn't change much. Neither Hero nor villain rate to have many sixes or fives in their ranges. Maybe hero has a range advantage there, but villain rates to have more bigger pairs than Hero does given the lack of a 4 bet preflop. I still lean check / call. The river third barrel by villain will make for a hard choice.

 

[Highli99]

I like a donk lead on the turn. Go for a small sizing to induce a jam and then call it off.

 

[Perthmike]

I'm folding so fast preflop. You are going to be out of position in a bloated pot with 77 lol.

Run for the hills.

As played, I guess you have to check call. For those saying check raise, wtf.

 

[mcguiles]

i fold

 

[jpietrella]

I'm folding so fast preflop. You are going to be out of position in a bloated pot with 77 lol.

Run for the hills.

As played, I guess you have to check call. For those saying check raise, wtf.

Samesies

 

[Bluegrass Poker]

When does this episode get released. I’m going to watch it with my wife, ok make her watch it with me, and amaze her with how I can predict every bet and action. LOL

 

[Windwalker]

When does this episode get released. I’m going to watch it with my wife, ok make her watch it with me, and amaze her with how I can predict every bet and action. LOL

May 9th

 

[doublebooyah85]

I hope villain has 77 too

 

[grebe]

We really have little to go off from preflop and flop action. Turn card doesn't change much, but could make villain feel better about A high.

As played, with ranges still wide... More of the same.... Check/call. Probably expecting V to size up. If he checks back, then I'm going to lead small on the turn with any low card. Maybe around 50k.

I still like a check raise on flop though.

 

[Perthmike]

This is honestly a dreadful spot and is exactly why you don't get into these positions preflop with marginal hands from early position.

I just feel like you have no info, and his range is so wide. All options on the table after that turn and all of them are shit and basically like putting your cash on black at the roulette table.

Bet fold pre lol.

I haven't played a competitive hand of poker in 24 months but this just brought back that sick feeling I used to get in the pit of my stomach when I found myself in a shit spot of my own making.

 

[Windwalker]

Continuing:
——————


Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero checks. Nothing has changed on our read here. Given our UTG raise (which usually tends to be with premium hands, and occasional suited connectors for balance), the texture of the board, and then our call after the flop, villain has got to be wondering if we might have a medium pocket pair, or perhaps, if he’s unlucky, a suited connector like 67s.

Villain bets $75,000.

Pot is now $190,500.

Hero?

 

[LeLe]

$75k bet into a $115.5k is huge, why bet so big?

There really no draw to charge either, what hands are the cult leader looking to charge that he is winning.

Seem like Cult Leader had Pocket 99s 10s JJs or QQ

AA KK AK AQ Ax are not betting. 55 66 are unlikely as Quad are hard

Maybe the Rare Suited A5 or A6 but there is like 4 combo out there

I leaning towards Fold because of the Bet size

 

[JMC9389]

$75k bet into a $115.5k is huge, why bet so big?

There really no draw to charge either, what hands are the cult leader looking to charge that he is winning.

Seem like Cult Leader had Pocket 99s 10s JJs or QQ

AA KK AK AQ Ax are not betting. 55 66 are unlikely as Quad are hard

Maybe the Rare Suited A5 or A6 but there is like 4 combo out there

I leaning towards Fold because of the Bet size

Disagree.

AK or another big, suited ace has every reason to bet this large to try and get a better hand to fold. This particular villain may even think ace high is good here, but the sizing to me doesn't say "call me", it says "go away".

 

[Perthmike]

It's hard to fold now

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

I guess maybe you could have slightly worse than 7s on that turn but really not much. Maybe you float an 80% pot flop bet with AK. Maybe? You really shouldn’t be getting to the turn with anything worse.

And even then youd be better off calling turn with AK than 7s. Blocking 76s is much less of a deal than blocking aces/kings and drawing to 3x as many cards against TT-QQ. Maybe 8s and 9s are slightly better folds due to blockers but i wouldn’t put much stock in blocking 76s - it’s a trivially small part of his range.

The same is more or less true for raising. Not sure there even is a raise range here. But if you did raise it probably gets folds from bigger pairs some of the time (as it should) so congrats if you did it and it worked.

 

[Windwalker]

We are nearing conclusion. Lots of great comments, thank you!

Continuing:
——————

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero checks. Nothing has changed on our read here. Given our UTG raise (which usually tends to be with premium hands, and occasional suited connectors for balance), the texture of the board, and then our call after the flop, villain has got to be wondering if we might have a medium pocket pair, or perhaps, if he’s unlucky, a suited connector like 67s.

Villain bets $75,000.

Pot is now $190,500.

Hero tanks for a bit. The bet size is curious, and we get the distinct impression he wants a fold. But it also provides us with an opportunity — I’m now putting him on either AKs, 8s, 9s or 10s. Jacks through Aces seems less likely. I’ve eliminated full-houses, and I feel like I’ve played it where us having a suited connector with a 5 or 6 is a possibility.

Hero raises to $200,000. (“FOLD, FOLD FOLD!!!”)

Villain tanks for a bit, and just calls. The pot is now $515,500.

The river strips off the deck.



Hero?

 

[JWC]

what a hand!

 

[Stufflymcstuff]

There’s 515k in the pot and he has 140k behind.
Not sure there’s much to do here. I don’t see him betting overpairs if you check and it’ll be tough to fold getting … 5:1?

All that’s left is the inevitable “sorry buddy, I putcha on AK”.

 

[davislane]

We are nearing conclusion. Lots of great comments, thank you!

Continuing:
——————

Here’s a fun hand I was in, coming up on the current season of HSP. Thought you could play along, will leave enough time for comments / strategy.

Hero is UTG. It is the 2nd-last hand of the day. Currently sitting at about $495K, having started the day at $250k. Blinds are 500/1000 with a $1k BB ante. Looks down and sees (I may have the suits wrong).



Hero does a standard raise to $3k. Hero image is tightish-aggressive, but with a penchant for ill-timed donkey bluffs.

HJ (TAG, killer player, but down today almost $500k) calls.

Button (TAG, known for tournament play and well-timed bluffs ) ponders, and raises to $20,000. Villain on button has $475k behind. Button is up from a $300k starting stack.

Blinds fold. Pot is now $28,500.

It's the 2nd-last hand of the night, and hero has seen BTN 3-bet with a wide range on the button. Could have a suited Ace, a smaller pocket pair, maybe even suited connectors. Hero calls the $20,000.

HJ folds.

Pot is now $45,500.

Flop is .

Hero checks. Short of flopping a set, we're pretty OK about this board. Villain has a wide range, and the board texture has missed flush draws on suited broadways, and we have the blockers to dangerous suited connectors like 67s. It's possible we're up against 10s or a larger pair, but this is worth playing in flow (thanks, @Senzrock) and our plan is to call most bets here. Our expectation here is a 50-66% size bet, which would be standard for the villain's continuation bet sizing we’ve seen all day. We plan to call most bets in this range and see a turn.

Villain bets out $35,000.

Hero calls. Pot is now $115,500.

Turn is .

Hero checks. Nothing has changed on our read here. Given our UTG raise (which usually tends to be with premium hands, and occasional suited connectors for balance), the texture of the board, and then our call after the flop, villain has got to be wondering if we might have a medium pocket pair, or perhaps, if he’s unlucky, a suited connector like 67s.

Villain bets $75,000.

Pot is now $190,500.

Hero tanks for a bit. The bet size is curious, and we get the distinct impression he wants a fold. But it also provides us with an opportunity — I’m now putting him on either AKs, 8s, 9s or 10s. Jacks through Aces seems less likely. I’ve eliminated full-houses, and I feel like I’ve played it where us having a suited connector with a 5 or 6 is a possibility.

Hero raises to $200,000. (“FOLD, FOLD FOLD!!!”)

Villain tanks for a bit, and just calls. The pot is now $515,500.

The river strips off the deck.



Hero?

donk shove all in. need to balance all the other times

 

[TurboKitty]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517237428397903872

 

[Marius L]

Obviously shove river.

Not sure why you think he is more likely to have 88-TT, rather than JJ-AA though, @Windwalker? And I think it's also kinda hard for you to have a 5 or 6 on turn, considering you raised UTG. Regardless, it's a (another) gutsy bluff (?) raise by you, and putting pressure on your opponent is pretty much never bad i guess.

 

[Windwalker]

Obviously shove river.

Not sure why you think he is more likely to have 88-TT, rather than JJ-AA though, @Windwalker? And I think it's also kinda hard for you to have a 5 or 6 on turn, considering you raised UTG. Regardless, it's a (another) gutsy bluff (?) raise by you, and putting pressure on your opponent is pretty much never bad i guess.

Biggest unknown of the moment for either party was whether it being the 2nd last hand of the night (and for me, of HSP) had any bearing on the action. I’ve been seen to have suited connectors like 45s and 56s UTG.

I certainly didn’t put him on a 5 or a 6. Which made me surmise I could potentially convince him with that raise of my having that. Plus, the $75k bet seemed like it didn’t want to be called, which made me think AKs was also a distinct possibility.

And my thinking at that time on the 88-TT was that Garett who called my 3k in the HJ might have potentially semi-blocked KK, QQ or AA. I also felt like those bigger pocket pairs might have caused him to bet a bit smaller than $75k.

I’ve since changed my mind, but I tried to stay true in this hand recap of exactly what I was thinking in the moment, whether it made sense later or not.